6 May 2024

Monday, 00:56

A SHARE OF THE SEA

An interview with Stanislav Cherniavsky, PhD (History), the director of the Russian Centre for Post-Soviet Studies at MGIMO [Moscow State Institute of International Relations] University, an Envoy Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary

Author:

17.03.2015

- Another meeting of the working group on the legal status of the Caspian Sea was recently held in Baku. Having negotiated six items of the future convention, experts agreed that further meetings should take place once a month or every other month. Why are the negotiations on the status of the Caspian Sea, which have been going on for almost 15 years, progressing with such a difficulty? What is the main problem?

- There are no differences between the positions of Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in the process of defining the legal status [of the Caspian Sea], but there are differences in the positions of Iran and Turkmenistan. Meanwhile, all the attempts of certain forces to drive a wedge between Moscow, Baku and Astana have failed at this stage.

Russia was able to reach an agreement with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Of course, many important technical issues still remain unregulated. Nonetheless, I think that to date, the Caspian states have signed plenty of important documents which allow us to move forward and even not to be in a particular hurry with finalizing the Caspian legal status convention. For example, there are viable possibilities to maintain a stable situation in the Caspian region under the Agreement on Security Cooperation in the Caspian Sea, adopted at the 3rd summit of the heads of the Caspian littoral states in Baku on 18 November 2010. It is just necessary to implement this agreement. As regards environmental security issues in the Caspian Sea, the Framework Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea was signed in Tehran in August 2006. Based on the provisions of this Convention, we must adopt a more rigorous approach to companies which let various chemicals leak into the water during oil production in the Caspian Sea. In other words, it is necessary to be stricter in monitoring the implementation of obligations incorporated in these documents.

For Russia, it is very important to strengthen cross-border cooperation. This work is being done, but not very actively. For such Caspian bordering entities of Russia as Dagestan, Astrakhan Region and Kalmykia, trade with the Caspian littoral states plays an important role. It is also important to develop navigation in the Caspian Sea and to settle the remaining technical problems with the maintenance of the Caspian Sea ports. This issue has become even more pressing against the backdrop of marine hubs being created in the Azerbaijani settlement of Alat and in the Kazakh port of Aktau. It should be noted that Russia has repeatedly put forward proposals for the development of economic cooperation among the littoral states.

Incidentally, there were proposals of different kinds to form new international economic associations in the Caspian Sea. For example, one of the projects was aimed at establishing a Caspian Economic Cooperation Organization, but this idea did not attract the attention of the Caspian states. The reasons are quite objective. Firstly, the Caspian littoral countries have different economic potential, and secondly, they are exporters of one and the same product, hence, actual competitors.

I think that the next summit will become a step forward towards the adoption of the convention. And hopefully, reaching an agreement on the legal status of the Caspian Sea will not have the outlines of a mirage, as it appeared before. However, one should not expect the conclusion of the convention in the near future. This will take some time.

- You mentioned the dissenting positions of Turkmenistan and Iran. How can the positions of Tehran and Ashgabat be brought to a common denominator?

- I think Azerbaijani diplomacy has the strength to solve this complex problem. The most experienced Azerbaijani diplomats have long been working in this direction, and there is reason to believe that these differences will be resolved.

- The Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have virtually divided the sea bottom yet before a decision is taken on its legal status, and are carrying out oil and gas development. In this respect, is the issue of legal status that much important for our countries?

- It depends on the point of view from which to assess the importance of addressing the issue of legal status. Indeed, from the point of view of oil companies, this issue is not so urgent; generally speaking, they do not need a convention as they produce oil anyway. However, structures associated with fisheries and fishing industry believe that it is necessary to adopt a convention because only in this case it will be possible to preserve biological resources of the sea. Meanwhile, the convention is not that much necessary for the border guards, as they know their areas of responsibility at the very least.

- Is it possible to solve the problems of disputed border deposits by means of bypassing the issue of legal status?

- It is more a matter of economic interest. That is, whether the oil companies will be able to practically solve these issues bypassing the legal registration? To what extent will their commercial interests be affected? However, there is another sensitive issue, and it is pipelines in the Caspian Sea. This is a very difficult question because the Caspian region has very high seismicity, and at the same time, the Caspian Sea is not as calm as, say, the Black Sea.

- What is your attitude to the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline which runs from the east to the west?

- This project involves many problems and conflicts of interests of different kinds. This includes the commercial interests of the Caspian littoral countries, environmental security issues since the project provides for pipeline laying on the seabed, as well as political contradictions as there are disputable fields and the temptation to hurt another party by force may be overwhelming, etc. To some extent, the issue of the implementation of the Trans-Caspian project is interconnected with the issue of the legal status of the Caspian Sea.

- Basing on the most conservative estimates, when can we expect the signing of the convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea?

- Not very soon. Too much work needs to be done before all the parties reach a consensus. At any rate, one should not expect the convention to be signed at the next summit.


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