THE HOT CAULDRON

The Middle East is turning into a huge cauldron of war. Following in the footsteps of a number of Arab countries, including Iraq and Syria, the situation in Yemen, which has become one of the focuses of the strategic interests of influential external forces, both global as well as region, is consolidating its hold as the next long-playing "record" of bloodshed.

The military operation headed by the Saudi Arabian coalition in Yemen is being stepped up. Supported by the fighter planes of Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Egypt, Jordan and Sudan, the Saudi air force is making strikes on the Shiite Houthi movement, "Ansar Allah", which is controlling a large part of Yemeni territory, including the capital Sanaa. The coalition is firmly set on returning Yemeni president, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi to power, who has taken refuge in Saudi Arabia. But the Houthis are not only demonstrating their determination not only to offer all kinds of resistance to the coalition, which they are accusing of committing aggression against Yemen, but also to consolidate their power throughout the country.

Over the last few days, the Houthis have managed to establish control over the port of Aden in the country's south. The Shiite movement's successes have forced not only the Arab countries in the region who preach the Wahhabi interpretation of Islam, but also the "Al-Qaeda" terrorist organisation, which essentially plays the role of the most aggressive link in Wahhabism, to express their readiness to put an end to the new authority in Yemen. "Al-Qa'eda" has announced a reward of 20kg of gold (approximately 774,000 dollars) for the capture of the Houthi leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi and ex-president of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was overthrown during the "Arab Spring" revolution and is today suspected of having ties with the "Ansar Allah" movement.  

Yemeni civilians are moreover continuing to perish during the Arab coalition's military operation. According to UN figures, since 26 March, ie. the day when the bombardment of Yemeni towns and villages started, more than 300 civilians have perished, including 74 children.

But the coalition is absolutely determined to carry out the operation until it achieves a victorious end. Saudi Prince Saud al-Faisal, has said that "the international coalition will continue the military operation in Yemen until the situation in the Arab republic becomes stable".

There can be no doubt that not only the strivings of the Arab monarchies to expel the Houthis and return ousted President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi to power can be traced in the Riyadh's actions, but also Saudi Arabia's intention to further establish itself in the role of the leader of the entire Islamic world. True, Riyadh is only capable of attaining this goal with the support of the USA. It is not surprising that the Saudis got the approval of Washington before starting their anti-Houthi operation. Washington is seriously troubled by the coming to power in Yemen of forces closely linked with Iran, since Iran aspires to the leadership of the Islamic world, but, unlike Riyadh, is hindering the consolidation of the United States' hegemonic influence in the Middle East. In the final count, the hostility towards the Houthi movement on the part of the Arab monarchies led by Saudi Arabia, backed by the USA and the West, has evoked fears of the so called "Iranian threat" spreading.

For understandable reasons, Tehran is condemning the military operation by the Arab coalition, stating that the international community should take the necessary measures to halt Saudi Arabia's aggression. At the same time, Iran is calling for all the sides in the internal political conflict in Yemen to come to the negotiating table. Iran is combining attempts at exercising diplomatic influence on the situation with certain strong-arm tactics. Thus, Iran has announced that it is dispatching two warships to the Gulf of Aden and the region of the Strait of Bab El-Mandeb to "ensure the safety of shipping and protect the interests of the Islamic Republic [of Iran] in international waters".

The reaction of Riyadh and its allies to Tehran's activity at sea was perfectly predictable. Saudi Brigadier General Ahmed Asiri stated that "Iranian ships have the right to be present in international waters, but they won't be allowed to enter the Yemeni territorial waters". 

At the same time, the growing activity of the "Islamic State" (IS) terrorist organisation, which retains control over a number of territories in Iraq and Syria is continuing to cause the overall regional situation to become more heated. The group is not only encouraging the massacare of people, but the destruction of monuments of culture. Thus, Mosul's Bashtabiya castle, an outstanding 12th-century work of architecture, has been blown up. The city of Mosul itself, which has been under the control of the terrorists since June 2014, has been proclaimed the Islamic State's capital. In that time, dozens of monuments of architecture have been destroyed and hundreds of mosques and Christian churches have been demolished. Mosul's Central Museum was among the cultural centres that have been looted.

The offensive by the "Islamic State" has compelled forces that were previously rivals to unite against it. For example, the Kurdish Autonomous Region in Iraq and the Central Baghdad authority have agreed to cooperate in the fight against the radical Islamists. What is intended here in particular is joint operations to liberate Mosul and all the provinces of Nineveh. 

The Syrian armed forces whose sub-units have destroyed bases of the terrorist grouping "Jabhat al-Nusra", associated with Islamic State, in the province of Idlib, have achieved considerable successes in the fighting against the radical Islamists. But from the local defeats of the Islamic State it would be wrong to draw conclusions that the terrorist organisation's positions are generally being undermined. Thus, IS fighters have attacked the "Yarmouk" Palestinian refugee camp located on the outskirts of Damascus. In this connection, attention is drawn to the resistance of the forces that are inclined to fight against the IS advance.

Not only Syrian government forces are fighting against the Islamists in the suburbs of Damascus, but also the "Free Syrian Army" (FSA) which until recently was one of the main groupings of the irreconcilable opposition. But over the last few months a truce has been in force between official Damascus and the FSA grouping. Damascus has announced "a programme of national reconciliation" as well as an amnesty for opposition fighters who surrender (provided that it is proven that they have not been involved in the shooting of the civilian population).

It is difficult to say how long the truce between the Syrian authorities and the FSA will last and whether it is capable of ensuring the much-needed ousting of IS fighters from Syria's territory. For the moment, Sheikh Saleh, one of the FSA leaders, who acted as the negotiator between the opposition grouping and the government forces, states: "What 'Islamic State' is doing is unacceptable to us. We are in favour of peace among peoples and cultures. We are in favour of civilisation and culture. They want to annihilate everything except the Sunnis. What they are doing is really terrible, it is barbarity."

Moreover, it should be noted that there has been a change in the tone of the West's attitude to the Syrian leadership. IS's offensive in Iraq and Syria is convincing the USA and the European Union of the pointlessness of an uncompromising approach to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The lack of a successful breakthrough by the international coalition forces that are inflicting air strikes on the positions of Islamic State, is increasingly forcing the West to regard the Syrian regime as a potential ally in combating the IS phantom.