OLD PRESIDENT ANEW

Nursultan Nazarbayev has been elected president of Kazakhstan for the fifth time. At the presidential elections which were held on 26 April the post of head of state was contested by three candidates: the incumbent president, the secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist People's Party, Turgun Syzdykov, and the chairman of the Trades Unions Federation, ecologist, former transport minister Abelgazi Kussainov. But the rivals were not able to hold out against a political heavyweight like Nazarbayev.

According to the data from the Central Election Commission, 97.75 per cent of the electorate voted for the "elbasi" with a record turn-out of 95.22 per cent (a total of 9.5m people are eligible to vote in Kazakhstan).This is a case when it is not even worth publicising the percentage of votes received by the other candidates since it was so low. Incidentally, Nazarbayev also managed to garner 95.5 per cent of the votes cast in the unscheduled elections in 2011.

Nazarbayev has traversed a long path from chairman of the Council of Ministers and then of the Supreme Soviet of the Kazakh SSR [Soviet Socialist Republic] to president, commander-in-chief, chairman of the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan, of the "Nur Otan" ["Radiant Fatherland"] party and the Security Council. He has been in power in the capacity of the president of modern Kazakhstan for 25 years and is quite rightly referred to as the architect of the independent country.

The elections were unscheduled.  Originally they should not have been held until next year, but the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan came out with the initiative that the elections should be held early, which was supported by the country's political forces, including the ruling "Nur Otan" party, and finally by the president himself. The election campaign was an extremely quiet one. Nazarbayev methodically travelled around the country, explaining to people what he is planning to do at Kazakhstan's helm.

Judging by the programme statements and also by the president's speech at his inauguration ceremony, Nazarbayev sees the country as having several aims, among them reforms in different fields: the development of the economy, taking into account what has been happening of late in the region and in the world; combating corruption; responding in an appropriate way to international threats which affect Kazakhstan; rebuffing every possible geopolitical challenge; and, what is most important, maintaining stability. Nazarbayev has drawn up a "Plan for the Nation" which includes 100 steps for the further building up of the state with the ultimate goal of Kazakhstan becoming one of the "most powerful states in the world".

Taking all this into account, the unscheduled elections seem a quite logical and justified step. To be fully armed to meet all the above-listed challenges, Nazarbayev needed to confirm his legitimacy. As an experienced politician, the Kazakh president can probably foresee the growing difficulties. Another possible variant is that at present no-one can simply say precisely how circumstances will change in the very near future and, in a situation like that, it would be a sin not to safeguard oneself. These elections can essentially be called a referendum on nation-wide trust in the head of Kazakhstan, his team and the policy being pursued by them.

If we go into details, the early elections were to a considerable extent the outcome of the need to take extremely unpopular economic measures in the very near future. The country developed rapidly after acquiring its sovereignty, but the drop in world oil and metal prices, the devaluation of the rouble, the deteriorating trading conditions with Russia (caused by the unequal devaluation of the exchange rates of the two states' national currencies and also a lack of clarity owing to the mechanism of single coordination) have led to a decline in the growth figures. In February 2014 the tenge lost 19 per cent of its value and, according to international experts' estimates, it continues to remain greatly overvalued. A further devaluation of as much as 50 per cent is to be expected in the very near future.

It is only natural that this will have a negative impact on the overall system in society, which fears a drastic rise in the prices of consumer goods. Now it is the aim of the authorities to minimise the negative effects, both on the population and on themselves. The country's economy requires modernisation and diversification, and many forecasts testify to the fact that Kazakhstan has every chance of success. 

Firstly this is a country with a large territory (the ninth largest in the world, the biggest intercontinental state in the world) with rich deposits of natural resources, The population is 17m, among whom the greater proportion are young people. It is to be expected that the growth in Kazakhstan's GDP in 2015 will be from 1 per cent to 1.5 per cent, which is not bad considering the present conditions.

Official Astana speaks of an intention to boost its activities aimed at forming a middle class (i.e. the development of small and medium-sized business, legal mechanisms, and transparency), at industrialisation, the development of the service sphere and tourism. It is proposed that the setting up of the country's financial centre in Astana should be speeded up. Nazarbayev proposes introducing five institutional reforms which will affect civil servants and the judicial and law and order systems among others.

As far as political changes are concerned, then one in particular is the talk of a possible successor to Nazarbayev who will be 75 in July. In the view of a number of experts, it is possible that the president is getting ready to gradually deal with this issue. Moreover, it is expected that this will not be a specific political persona, but some kind of dividing up or redistribution of authority on the level of state and civil institutions, which is fairly surprising for a country in which there is a strong president in power. The process is most likely to start on the level of local executive bodies. At any rate, the citizens of Kazakhstan can expect parliamentary elections, which are most likely to be more specific than the presidential elections and they may at least provide a partial answer to this question. Naturally, it is primarily the mechanisms of this process that are of interest. In any case, Nazarbayev will clearly make the economy a priority rather than political processes.

Another important element in the forthcoming work is the strengthening of national identity and the consolidation of society. In achieving this, Astana is not only talking about the importance of a state language, but also of Russian and English. The importance is being stressed of having both a "European direction" as well as a "Eurasian" one, which is on the whole a good reflection of Kazakhstan's aspirations at the crossroads between Europe and Asia.

In the world arena Kazakhstan has already managed to shape a certain image, that of a peaceful, purpose-orientated and ambitious state. Astana has always adhered to a multi-vector policy and, to all appearances, is not intending to depart from that path. First and foremost, the Kazakh leader's predictability and, as a consequence, 

Kazakhstan being regarded in a certain sense as a guarantee of stability in Central Asia and the flagship of its economic development are to everyone's liking. In spite of Astana's strong ties with Moscow, primarily, within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union [EAES], the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS] and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation [SCO], the country is succeeding in maintaining partnership and strategic relations with its neighbours in the region, with the Islamic world, the European Union [EU], China and the USA.

Kazakhstan's peace-making efforts aimed at the peaceful solution of regional conflicts deserve separate attention. For Azerbaijan an important element is Astana's principle-based stand with regard to the conditions governing Yerevan's membership of the Eurasian Economic Union, and precisely that Armenia will only be able to join the latter within its recognised frontiers, i.e. without the occupied Azerbaijani lands. The people of Kazakhstan, like their government, understand the just nature of Azerbaijan's struggle for its territorial integrity. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev congratulated Nursultan Nazarbayev on his landslide victory in the presidential elections.

"I would especially like to note your contribution to the development and multiplication of the traditions of friendship, cooperation and mutual support between our peoples. I feel sure that in the future too our joint efforts will be aimed at strengthening our strategic partnership, ensuring all-round cooperation between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in all fields in order to boost our countries' prosperity and achieve progress in the region," I. Aliyev said during a telephone conversation with his [Kazakh] counterpart.

Relations between Kazakhstan and Turkey are developing quite well. Literally a few days before the elections Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Kazakhstan, which is proof of the two leaders' aim to promote cooperation within a regional framework and also of the great significance that they attribute to the integration of the Turkic-speaking peoples. Owing to the fact that Turkey is no longer actually seeking membership of the EU, Ankara is considering the possible advantages to be gained by joining the SCO or even the Eurasian Economic Union, and is also regarding Kazakhstan as an intermediary and technical link in further strengthening ties with China. Turkey would get direct continental access, independent of sea transportation, to China, the countries of South and Southeast Asia, while Kazakhstan would acquire an important route to Europe and the Middle East via Turkey, especially taking into account that Astana has no access to the sea. A union of Turkey and Kazakhstan is also interesting, if we focus on the strengthening of Iran, once the sanctions on the Islamic Republic are lifted as expected, and also in the context of energy cooperation, where Azerbaijan already plays one of the key roles.

Naturally, the main neighbours for Kazakhstan are Russia and China, with which it shares a lengthy land border. Whereas for Russia the main project is the Eurasian Economic Union, China is actively engaged in implementing its own idea of the "New Silk Road". Beijing is already investing in the infrastructure in Kazakhstan, in the construction of motorways and railways. As far as the rivalry between Russia and China with regard to Kazakhstan is concerned, Moscow can undoubtedly compete with Beijing in the sphere of investments and financial opportunities, but when it comes to the region's security, Kazakhstan obviously prefers to do business precisely with Moscow. Nazarbayev clearly understands the security threat to his country resulting from the withdrawal of the foreign coalition from Afghanistan and the boosting of the terrorist groups' activity. In any case, Russia, China and the EU are all members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which, even though it has not become an international player, fully manages to cope with its task on a regional level.

Thus, after the elections Kazakhstan is looking to the future completely optimistically. The "new old" president has planned numerous transformations which will not only have an impact on Kazakhstan, but will also affect the entire region and the neighbouring countries. Astana also intends to boost its presence in the international arena. Kazakhstan has quite good chances of becoming a non permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2017-2018. In the very near future, Kazakhstan should complete the talks on its membership of the World Trade Organisation. In 2017 the "Expo-2017" world exhibition is to take place in Astana. Besides this, the former capital Alma-Ata is vying with Beijing to become the venue for the Winter Olympics in 2022.