IRAN'S VICTORY

- What factors played a key role in Iran and six world powers reaching agreement on Iran's nuclear programme and the decision to lift sanctions on Tehran?

- Altogether, negotiations with Iran had been going on for 10 years. The talks reached the home straight when Hassan Rouhani came to power in Iran. Getting the sanctions lifted was the main point of his presidential platform in 2012. The government of Iran took every effort to reach agreement on the nuclear programme. In so doing, Iran sought not merely lifting of sanctions but also recognition of its right to carry on nuclear research for peaceful purposes. Thus, in addition to the lifting of sanctions, Iran has joined the club of countries developing nuclear technologies. In a sense, it is Iran's victory. A number of factors urged Iran and the six states to reach agreement. They include the effect of the sanctions to which Iran was subjected in the political, economic and financial spheres in fact since 2006. Its international isolation was especially tough since 2011. Meanwhile the Iranian state which claims a leading role in the region and occupies an important geostrategic and geoeconomic position cannot develop without broad cooperation on the international scene. Destabilized situation in the Middle East and growing extremist Islamic sentiments in the region urged Iran and the six powers to conclude the agreement. Iran is the most active opponent of the Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization and a strong state in military terms. But this country is hardly able to cope with IS forces single-handedly. So far, Iran has managed to defend its borders and fight against IS in Iraq. As regards the Western states, it is very important for them to involve Iran in the military coalition against the terrorists. The developments in Yemen also played a role. At the same time, by the end of his term in office, Barak Obama would like to add another political achievement to his party's collection: for the first time over the past 37 years, an agreement has been concluded in direct interaction between the USA and Iran. The European countries also had some interest in Iran's economy and energy supplies.

- Can we expect an increase in Iran's influence in the South Caucasus region?

- Iran is trying its utmost to strengthen its influence in all neighbouring territories. The South Caucasus is one of the vectors in Iran's foreign policy. President Rouhani's participation in the summits of the SCO, BRICS and the Eurasian Union confirms this. In this way, Iran is laying the foundation for developing mutual relations now that the sanctions have been lifted. Western and Russian media often write that, immediately after lifting sanctions, Iran will rush into the arms of the West. One should be aware that the agreement signed is a comprehensive action plan for the two sides to fulfil on a mutual basis. Its implementation will start after the agreement has been approved by the UN Security Council which is supposed to pass a resolution and lift the sanctions. Note that 90 days has been allocated for this. The agreement is to go through the ratification process at the US Congress and the Majlis of Iran. As is known, this agreement has quite a lot of opponents in these legislative bodies. So the complete lifting of sanctions is not a matter of the near future. Only some two or three years from now will it be possible to discuss Iran's advancement in the region in political or economic terms. There are many mechanisms to hamper the implementation of this agreement.

- Europe is actively discussing economic prospects after lifting the sanctions. Some politicians have come up with the theory that the opening of Iran's giant market to the world will lead to a "gold rush" in the region. They say that capitalization of Iran's economy will take some 70-100bn dollars in investments…

- It will be possible to speak about broad opportunities opening in Iran only in a favourable situation with guaranteed fulfilment by the sides of the agreement terms. But it should be taken into account that, firstly, this process will take some time and, secondly, after being closed-off for 35 years, Iran has no legislation to guarantee the preservation and return of capital. They have no legislation on joint companies. So Iran will have to work a lot to create a legislative framework for the operation of foreign enterprises. Foreign companies did work in Iran but it was regulated on the basis of bilateral agreements and foreign companies could not export their profits from the country directly. This important issue will have to be settled. Certain legislative work was done during the rule of President Khatami. Currently, a bitter internal political struggle is going on in Iran. There are significant forces opposed to restoring relations with the West and, in particular, with the USA. This is why it is unlikely that Iran will open the door wide, as they say, and a "gold rush" will start. Indeed, some capital will flow to Iran already now that sanctions have been lifted but the flow will be limited by Iran's legislation.

- As soon as the conclusion of the agreement was announced, thousands of Iranians took to the streets of Iranian towns to celebrate this event. The population hopes for positive changes in their everyday life following the lifting of sanctions. Can the lifting of sanctions lead to political reforms, a liberalization of the political system in Iran?

- Indeed, the Iranians rejoiced at the news of the agreement achieved. But the celebrations in the streets of Iranian cities do not mean that an absolute majority of the population are ready in the broad sense of the word to see the West in their country. This is absolutely wrong. Part of the progressive-minded population, the middle class, intellectuals, business elite and student-age population live in the globalized world of the Internet, social networks and take an interest in processes going on in the world. They are aware that expansion of contacts with the West will provide more opportunities for the country, its society and economy. But they account for no more than 30 per cent of the population. Meanwhile, the majority of Iranians live in rural areas and small towns and stick to their traditional religious values. They were brought up in the spirit of the Islamic revolution and are suspiciously alert to any contacts with the Western world. The leader of the country, Ayatollah Khamenei regularly says that the West is the stronghold of evil and despotism and it is necessary to fight against it. To conservative Iranians, the lifting of sanctions means new jobs, a lower inflation, a better economic situation and development of the domestic market but in no event the arrival of Western companies and firms in the Iranian market. We cannot expect a change in the essence of the Iranian regime in the near future. Quite probably, strengthening of the Rouhani government continuing its policy of cooperation with the West and improvement of the overall economic situation in Iran may bring about an expansion of liberal sentiments in society and provide a broader support to a group of moderate reformers currently heading the government. In the medium term, it will be possible to speak about expansion of democratic principles in Iran's domestic political life. In February next year, the Assembly of Experts will elect Iran's spiritual leader. Given the declining years of the incumbent leader, the Assembly of Experts is very likely to raise the issue of his successor. Suggestions are already being voiced that the spiritual leader's powers should be limited by reducing his influence in the political sphere and let him stay in charge of the spiritual, social, cultural and other domains. It will be possible to judge more specifically about prospects for change in the political system in Iran but no earlier than one year from now. Basically, there is a visible general trend to strengthen democratic values in the state system of the IRI. But all that is going on very slowly, at a snail's pace.

- What effect will the lifting of sanctions have on so important an issue as oil prices? Because you know that, having huge oil reserves, Iran will re-enter the global oil market.

- This issue is of interest to many. Note that Iran actively sold oil until 2011. It was by far not the Iranian factor that kept oil prices high. When sanctions were imposed on Iran and Iranian oil sales halved, the oil prices dropped. This means that some other factors are at work in the formation of world oil prices. If the OPEC countries do not decide to restrict oil production, the entry of Iranian oil to world markets can only cause an insignificant downward price fluctuation. It should be said that Iran's oil industry facilities are badly worn-out. And, until the oil sector has been retooled, Iran cannot offer large volumes of energy supplies to the market. But again it is impossible to modernize this sector without the use of those foreign investments. Only in that case will it be possible to speak about a significant increase in Iran's oil output. But this takes some time, too.