INITIATIVE FROM THE NORTH

The summer was marked by tension along the line of contact between the Armenian and Azerbaija-ni armed forces. Scat-tered raids by the Armenians and bombardment of Azerbaijani army positions from large-calibre weapons and rocket launchers all lead to a series of local skirmishes with casualties. However, the negotiations process to settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict remains at a standstill. The last visit to the region by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is working on a settlement to the conflict, was intended to organize a meeting between Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders. Aleksandr Sot-nichenko, a political scientist and docent at the faculty of international relations of St. Petersburg State University, spoke with R+ about his views on the prospect of settling the conflict. 

- The next meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, which will come after a long break in the talks process, is expected to take place in September during a regular session of the UN General Assembly in New York. Should we place hope on this meeting for a breakthrough in settling the Karabakh conflict?

- Unfortunately, I don't see any possibility of achieving any serious agreements. The situation is practically the same as it was twenty years ago. In my opinion, the only thing that the sides can agree on is certain humanitarian actions, the necessity of a cease-fire. But for now I see no possibility for real progress in settling the conflict.

- Russia has always been especially active among the mediators. But lately both Baku and Yerevan have been displeased with the Russian policy of arming both sides of the conflict. What are Russia's aims in supplying weapons, some of them intended for offensive warfare, to both sides of the conflict, while at the same time being a mediator in the conflict? Should we at this stage expect effective measures from Russian in solving the conflict?

- The question about arming both sides is simpler. Russia has already stated on several occasions that Armenia is its military and political ally, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, and the Eurasian Union. For that reason Russia will arm Armenia in any case.

On the other hand, so as to not contribute to increased tension in the region, Russia tries to supply an equal amount of weaponry to Azerbaijan. The situation is roughly the same as that which exists in relations between the United States, Israel, and the Arab states. Washington promises to supply to Israel as much weaponry as it supplies to all the Arab countries put together. Thereby a certain parity is guaranteed.

The question as to what Russian can do is more complicated. The Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is truly very complicated. Nonetheless, it is completely solvable as part of regional integration.

- The idea of solving the Karabakh conflict within a single integrated society is popular among Russian experts.

- I think the conflict might be solved one way or another - for example, as part of the integration of both Armenia and Azerbaijan into the Eurasian Union. As well as by drawing other players into discussion of the conflict - not global players like Europe and the US, which are located far outside the region, but local players. We're talking about, first of all, Iran and Turkey. In that case the Karabakh conflict, like other conflicts in the Caucasus, could be resolved. Definite steps in this direction were made in 2008, when Erdogan proposed creating a Platform for Security and Cooperation in the Caucasus. I can't call that ideal, but nevertheless that is roughly the direction in which to move.

Of course, Russia should be the one to initiate these processes, because without Russia no conflicts in the region will be resolved. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan look to Russia, and both are waiting for certain steps from Russia. For this reason Moscow should present a peace program for the region that somehow suits both conflicting sides in the region.

- But Baku has already let it be known that it is not interested in membership in the Eurasian Union - at least for now. Nevertheless, how much of a basis is there for opinions that Azerbaijan might enter the organization if Russia helps to return the occupied land to the republic?

- I believe that the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict will, naturally, become the main issue for discussion and debate regarding Azerbaijan's integration into the Eurasian Economic Union. However, it is still the primary reason that Azerbaijan is holding back from joining the organisation.

The primary reason is that the Eurasian Union hasn't recommended itself as a growing, vibrant organization. So Russia has to overcome an entire series of crises. As soon as the Eurasian Economic Union becomes a dynamically growing international organization like, for instance, today's European Union, the organization will start to truly attract Azerbaijan, and then it will be possible to speak of possible integration and to discuss this integration as part of solving the Karabakh issue.

By all appearances, Russia should propose a radically new idea which would be the basis for discussion of the problem on the regional level. But so far nothing like that has been come up with.

- By the way, with Azerbaijan's reservations about the Eurasian Union, Azerbaijan is showing interest in strengthening ties with another major integrating organization - the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Does this mean that the idea of Eurasianism interests Baku and might hold promise?

- Of course, for Azerbaijan this topic, ideology, has great promise. No matter how you look at it, we understand perfectly well that the West considers Azerbaijan to be an insufficiently democratic country, which, if something should happen, can be "democratized" as in the Ukraine. Azerbaijan understands this perfectly well and is trying as much as it can to avoid this scenario. For that reason alternative paths of development are being looked at, including as part of the Eurasian union. In my view, integration into Eurasian structures holds great promise for Azerbaijan. First of all this means cooperation in transportation and cooperation with Russia, which will be carried on as part of a unified space. And, most of all, Azerbaijan might be a good bridge for the Eurasian Union's cooperation with Iran and Turkey.