GOAL NUMBER ONE

A comprehensive agreement on Iran's nuclear program followed by the lifting of sanctions against the Islamic Republic have shaped up a cliche in the world that Tehran is ready to fill the world with oil and natural gas to regain its lost positions. However, not everything is so obvious as it seems at first glance.

Tehran's first steps include a desire to strengthen the country's security and obtain access to modern technology instead of completely destroying the delicate price balance on the world oil market.

The Iranian leadership is not eager to use the unfrozen Iranian assets to increase production of oil and natural gas in the country. Moreover, Tehran plans to minimize its own investment in the oil and gas sector and redirect it in other areas of the economy.

Tehran relies on foreign investment in the oil and gas sector, calling back not only Western multinational oil and gas companies, but also Russian and Chinese ones. According to the British company BP, in 2014 oil production in Iran amounted to 3.6 million barrels per day compared to 4.4 million barrels in 2011. The exports of "black gold" have also dropped by 1 million barrels per day in comparison with the pre-sanctions period.

But according to the most conservative estimates, Iran's desire to restore the previous volumes of oil supplies to world markets will require hundreds of billions of dollars. For comparison, last year's investments in Iran's oil sector totaled only 6bn dollars. With the current level of the oil price of 50 dollars per barrel, it is hard to expect an investment boom by foreign oil and gas companies in Iran. Therefore is, we should not exaggerate Iran's potential for a sharp increase in oil supplies to the world market.

Hopes for the supplies of Iranian natural gas to European Union countries are also seriously exaggerated. According to BP, at the end of 2014 Iran had the biggest natural gas reserves in the world (34 billion cubic meters of natural gas, or 18.2 per cent of global reserves). In this connection, it may seem odd that Iran experienced a shortage of natural gas in 2013. At the end of 2014, Iran increased its natural gas production to 8 billion cubic meters, bringing it to 172.6 billion cubic meters. For comparison, according to BP, Russia, which has natural gas reserves of 32.6 trillion cubic meters, produced 578.7 billion cubic meters at the end of 2014.

In this regard, the Iranian government chooses priority markets for its gas. It is clear that most gas-producing states are lured by the European market with rather high prices. But the western route requires the construction of a pipeline 4,000 km in length. Therefore, for Iran, at least in the short term, the more attractive way is eastwards, primarily to the neighboring Pakistan and further towards India and China. By the way, the leadership of Pakistan is in talks with a Chinese company on the construction of a pipeline 435 miles (700 km) in length, which will enable Iranian gas exports to the country. The cost of the pipeline project varies between 1.5 and 1.8bn dollars on the condition that 85 per cent of the funding will come from the Chinese loan and the rest will be provided by Pakistan.

The rapid deterioration of the situation in the region due to the intense fighting against "Islamic state" militants in Syria and Iraq poses questions to Tehran questions related to the country's national security. Therefore, it is clear how important a modern rearmament of Iran is.

It should be noted that the beginning of a complete abolition of sanctions against Iran, according to various sources, may not begin until the spring of 2016. However, the Iranian leadership is already in active negotiations with Moscow on the modernization of the Iranian army.

We are talking about the military and technological cooperation with Russia, which envisages not only the purchase of anti-aircraft missile systems S-300. At present, Iran is also eyeing the Russian combat aircraft MiG and Su.

Of course, the Russian leadership does not mind selling passenger aircraft Superjet 100 aircraft and Tu-204SM to Iran as well, but unlike Russian military aircraft, commercial planes do not quite delight Iranian carriers despite Iran's significantly outdated fleet. As far as this segment is concerned, corporations such as Boeing and Airbus are likely to earn a handsome profit on upgrading Iran's civil aviation fleet - Iran is going to buy about 80-90 planes from them, spending about 20bn dollars in the next 10 years. 

Iran primarily needs technology rather than investments of Western companies. Modern technology is also necessary for the Iranian oil and gas sector to improve the productivity and life of wells. But there is a reasonable question: are the United States and the European Union interested in seeing a strong and independent Shiite Iran? It is clear that Tehran is unlikely to become a political toy in the hands of the White House and Brussels.

Accordingly, it can be expected that Tehran will experience another escalation of the confrontation with the United States and the European Union in the coming years.