THE MYSTERIOUS "MAIDAN"

Everything that has been happening in the centre of Chisinau bears all the hallmarks of an "ordinary maidan" - the organised volunteers, the well-organised infrastructure, the support in the social networks, the tents, the anti-corruption and anti-oligarch slogans. Then it may go on to the sacrificial victims and then the follow-up that is all too familiar to us all, but this is not necessarily the scenario. The classic of the genre, that is to say, the Ukrainian example, we naturally always have in mind, but it is hardly worth comparing the current events in Chisinau with what happened in Kiev.  If only because it is difficult to sort out the confrontations between the sides in the Moldovan maidan.

Judge for yourself, people demanding the resignation of the government, which is considered to be definitely pro-European and had initially campaigned in favour of the protesters' demands are rallying under national flags, the flags of Romania and the European Union and under pro-European integration and anti-oligarch slogans. Therefore observers are completely baffled. This is either an action by pro-Russian forces or it is an explosion of popular discontent against the ruling oligarchic elite, or it is a banal dividing up of property, or a subtle step by Washington against Moscow, but at the same time anti-Europe, or simply a warning shot across the bows of the current authorities on the part of western partners.

The rally which began in Chisinau on 6 September was organised by representatives of the DA (Demnittatea si adevar- "Dignity and Truth") civic platform, which has been joined by members and supporters of the small, radically inclined "Our Home is Moldova" ("Red Bloc"). According to various information, "thousands of people" gathered in the square in front of Government House (at any rate for Chisinau that was a very large number), representing a rather mixed bag of people: besides the activists, there were unemployed and people without anything to do, students, radical young people, pensioners, members of the intelligentsia, those who are fighting in the war in Transnistria [Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic], anarchists, farmers and so forth. The list of demands were also extremely varied - the resignation of the president and the  government, the prosecutor general, the heads of the bodies of law and order, the conducting of early parliamentary elections, combating corruption, solving the problems in agriculture, lowering the charges for communal services, raising teachers' wages  and students' grants.

The socialist party and their leader Igor Dodon supported the protesters, surprising everyone at the 2014 elections and now also demanding the removal of the oligarchs from power, the abolition of deputies' immunity, the resignation of the head of the National Bank, the prosecutor general, the chairman of the Central International Committee and the director of the National Agency for Energy Regulation. The main thing was the return to the procedure of electing the head of state by direct popular vote. The main difference between the socialists and the DA supporters was that the former were opposed to complete integration with Europe, the country joining NATO and unification with Romania.

On the whole, the 6th-September protest went off peacefully, except for the clashes with the police and the arrests (and in the main thanks to the speedy efforts of the "Red Bloc supporters"), which were manifested during the attempt to storm the building of the Office of the Prosecutor General. As a result, a former deputy, the leader of the "Red Bloc", Grigoriy Petrenko and some of his comrades in arms were jailed for a month. There were no other excesses, but the protesters promised to blockade the offices of the civil service, if the authority does not respond to their demands in the appropriate manner. According to one of the leaders of the protest movement, Andrei Nastase, if they are to achieve their goals, the protest action needs to go on non-stop.

In order to step up the threat in the Grand National Assembly Square, a tent city has appeared, which the organisers call "A little town of dignity and justice". In response, the secretary general of the presidential office, Ion Peduraru, stated that 

Moldovan President Nikolae Timofti will not step down as the protesters demand, since that "is absolutely not in the interests of society and not in the interests of the country". Moldovan Prime Minister Valeriu Strelet stated in his turn that "there are too many forces interested in destabilising the situation to deflect the country from its strategic course towards European integration". "If you agree with that, then we are prepared to discuss, set up a joint commission which will concentrate on all these problems. I repeat that this is to discuss all the problems except the resignation of the government," Strelet noted categorically. But the protesters turned down such talks.

Explanations for who is backing the civic platform have sprung up like mushrooms after the rain. According to the DA supporters, no oligarchs are backing them, only the people and western partners. The opponents to the platform have become entangled in contradictions - for them the maidan is either anti-European, left-wing-radical and pro-Russian, or pro-American and nationalistic. Another guess is that the local oligarchs are "behind the maidan".

Since those participating in the rally are dissatisfied with the actions of the pro-Western government, the supposition that the situation in the square has been organised by pro-Russian forces, was the first to emerge. Although once again, this appears to be confusing since the participants in the rally came out the slogans in support of a more consistent trend towards integration with Europe and during the protest the protesters were waving the flags of Moldova, Romania and the European Union. Observers believe that it is not a good time for Moscow to rock the boat in Moldova at the present time, first and foremost because of Transnistria, which in the event of a "Ukrainian scenario" may become a second Crimea for Russia, but it is hardly likely to be such a bloodless and triumphal one for Vladimir Putin. 

Against the backdrop of the unresolved problems with Ukraine, the Kremlin cannot allow itself to be drawn into a new conflict (and bring upon itself fresh sanctions). As a warning, naval and land exercises involving Ukrainian, Romanian, Turkish and Moldovan troops are being conducted in the zone around the unrecognised republic [Transnistria], but this is being orchestrated by the USA. According to the Pentagon, the purpose of the operation is to work out a multinational strategy for ensuring security in the crisis region. Odessa Region where [former Georgian President] Mikhail Saakashvili is governor is located next to the so-called "PMR" [Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic].

Besides this, in Transnistria itself, which is getting ready for parliamentary elections in December, there is a fairly complicated domestic political situation. At any rate, maidan may bring to power forces which are even more undesirable for Russia than the present ones, and Moscow cannot particularly depend on anyone in Moldova to assert its control, because even the Communists are charting a course towards European integration. The ruling party of the Communists (PCRM), which has for many years now formed an alliance with the "European Left" [the EL-parties] has rejected Moldova's membership of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. The socialists in their time, having broken away from the PCRM were more pro-Russian and pro-communist in this sense, but they lack the resources and have an ambiguous attitude to the partnership with the Russian Federation as well.

The so-called "pro-European forces" are at the helm in Moldova, managing to take power from the communists as a result of the "Twitter revolution" or the "brick revolution" in 2009. "The Democratic Coalition" initiated a programme of reforms and pursued an unambiguous course towards European integration, but the trouble is that all that did not really turn out well; the economic problems kept getting worse and then there was a series of corruption scandals. A particular weakness of the coalition "The Alliance for a European Moldova" (the Liberal Democratic Party, the Liberal Party) became apparent after the 2014 elections. Naturally, the "Europeans" managed to get together and they jointly had enough votes, but the socialists won the election according to the vote-count and the communists came third, which was obviously an indicator that the "alliance" was losing the popularity among the population.

The pro-European coalition is fairly unstable from a political point of view; differences frequently arise within the coalition, which can often appear confusing for a person on the side lines. There is a constant struggle for influence in the various structures, sometimes involving rather unscrupulous methods. From an ideological point of view, the supporters of European integration also have differing views on the extent of a rapprochement with the European Union and when it should happen - should it be integration into Romania or integration which preserves the independence of Moldova? Political and economic elites have formed in the country over the last few years that do not want to lose their advantage to their Romanian neighbours and are therefore beginning to oppose the unionists. Such contradictions are hardly likely to encourage the people to support them.

Another serious blow to the electorate's trust in their elected representatives was struck by the missing billion from three of the country's banks, which is equivalent to 12 per cent of the GDP of a small, impoverished state like Moldova. The August report by Secretary General of the Council of Europe Thorbjorn Jagland was the last straw in the series of unpleasant events for the Moldovan officials who were on vacation. In the report, Thorbjorn said that Moldova "was on the brink of becoming another Europe's next security crisis". "Moldova's currency is being devalued, the interest rates are rising and output is falling," Jagland was scathing in his assessment.

He clearly warned that the authorities' failure to act would cost them dear: "The social programmes for the needy will be cut before the harsh winter months." Now Prime Minister Valeriu Strelet is stating that the activation of protest inclinations may prevent the IMF mission from visiting Chisinau which will correspondingly make a bad situation even worse. But, on the other hand, the potential of popular indignation keeps on growing and growing…

The leitmotif in the current Moldovan maidan is the anger at the oligarchs who are dictating their own rules of the game to society. The name of Vladimir Plakhotnyuk can be heard particularly frequently; he was former a member of the communist camp, but then became vice president of the Democratic Party and now he is being referred to as almost the owner "of the whole of Moldova". Rumour has it that the media, the judicial system and those in charge of the power-wielding organisations, many parties and almost the prime minister and president themselves are secretly controlled by this businessman politician. The organisers of the protests are asking Moldova's international partners to declare Plakhotnyuk, and also President Timofti, the leaders of a number of parties, the prosecutor general and the head of the National Bank persona non grata. The mistakes made by the European integrationists and, as a result, the terrible economic situation, are turning the people against Europe and in fact throwing them into the embrace of Russia. The West cannot fail to notice that.

The first warning was sent by Jagland, and the second warning was possibly the burgeoning maidan. If the current government receives support from the West, then it will remain in power and will perhaps draw conclusions. But in the Western media the protests in Chisinau are not even mentioned, which is a very bad sign for the present authorities. But there is still time to think better of it.

At the same time, observers fear that in the event of a maidan developing, the present leaders of the protest in the form of the DA representatives will not be able to make really cardinal changes, and some oligarchs will simply replace others. At the very least, it is naive to think that the civic platform is being propped up solely by popular indignation and the donations of various volunteers, after all the maidans in the different countries over the last few years. One variant is that businessmen who have a quarrel with Plakhotnyuk, are financing the DA from abroad.

It is doubtful that the majority of the public will back the DA, at any rate not with the current level of protests. It is hardly likely that they will gain convincing support if early elections are held. On the contrary, there is a risk that the socialists and communists will be able to forget the previous grievances and will unite in a coalition. There is no way that the West can allow that to happen. As a result, it is being proposed that a new party may be created on the "Dignity and Truth" platform and it will possibly be headed by former minister of education of the liberal democrats, Maia Sandu, who has supposedly received the secret support of the USA and Europe. Then Moldova will hear new slogans and will probably see a new programme for the state's development.

The long-standing crisis in the Moldovan system of power did at any rate already come to a head long ago and needed to be sorted out. But since Moldova is greatly dependent on outside factors, she can easily be used in regional geopolitical games. Do the Chisinau authorities have sufficient will and wisdom, but do they have sufficient resources to get together to confront all the foreign enemies and friends.