EVERYONE WANTS WARS?

For the first time in recent history Russia is conducting a military operation in the Middle East. Outside of the anti-terrorist coalition, the Russian air force is independently striking at the positions of the "Islamic State" in Syria. Already three of Azerbaijan's neighbouring states - Turkey, Iran and Russia - are waging an anti-terrorist war against "Islamic State" (IS).

An expert from the Turkish International Strategic Studies' Centre, Hasan Selim OZERTEM spoke to Regionplus about Ankara's stance on the processes taking place in the Middle East region in the context of the Russian military operation.

- Russian military aircraft have started military operations in Syria. How do you envisage Moscow's political and military actions in the region in the very near future?

- Initially "Islamic State" laid claim to four to five provinces of Syria which the government troops of al-Assad were unable to hold. Some time ago, before Moscow's decision to begin the air strikes, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reported in his speech that Russia was ready to begin anti-terrorist operations in a number of regions controlled by IS and other terrorist groupings in Syria.

Russia is essentially trying to create a specific security zone for its own ally, the government of Bashar al-Assad. At the moment, thousands of fighters from IS, as well as from the "Jabhat al Nusra" and "Khorosani Tagai" organisations and others have seized the territories and proclaimed independent states there.

It is quite probable that the Russian air force, as well as the coalitions headed by the USA, the EU and other countries, will manage to achieve success in disarming the military groupings. But the situation pertaining in Syria and in the Middle East region as a whole is such that other, possibly crueller and bloodier terrorist formations will just fill the gap left by the few current ones.

The problem is not just IS, but a whole series of political, ethnic, religious, faith and social contradictions in the region. Terrorism in the Middle East can be undermined, but not eradicated. This is because a favourable environment remains for the formation of extremist groupings. The terrorist organisations' field of activity can be considerably limited by the air strikes and cutting off their source of financing, but it cannot said that this will put an end to this phenomenon.

There is no political force in Syria that could single-handedly form a stable government. Stability in Syria can be attained by forming an authority, under which Sunnis, Shias and Alawites could live in peace and harmony. The formation of such an authority with a leadership representing all the religious and ethnic groups in the country would be possible. Even Bashar al-Assad could be included in this leadership. 

Forming a government like that would only be possible under the aegis of the UN Security Council within the framework of the Geneva principles relating to the situation in Syria. But nothing is being done in that direction. At the UN General Assembly session, US head of state Barack Obama and Russian leader Vladimir Putin only spoke about military measures. The UN's international platform would offer a splendid opportunity for all the interested parties, namely the USA, the Russian Federation, France, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries, to be involved, to at least discuss the outlines of a possible transitional Syrian government. Unfortunately, it is a strong-armed approach and not a political one that prevails at the moment.

- In Turkey what did they think about the Russian military operations in Syria?

- For the moment almost all the Turkish media and the Turkish government are trying to understand the purposes and aims of the Russian operation. Owing to the large amount of misinformation in the foreign media, Turkish politicians prefer to keep an eye on the ongoing processes for the moment. In particular, different foreign sources are reporting that the air strikes are not targeting IS positions, that there are casualties among the civilian population, that there are random attacks and so forth. Afterwards these reports are partially being denied.

The Turkish media close to the political parties are only stating the fact that the air strikes are taking place. Russia started the military operation in a hurry. In spite of the sanctions and international pressure with regard to events in Ukraine, Moscow has not taken long to become a big player in the Middle East region. The Russian air force's air strikes began almost immediately after Putin and Obama met. Time is needed here to assess what is taking place.

On the whole, Turkey's stand is such that war should only be waged against the IS terrorists. Ankara is very wary of the air strikes and the undermining of the Syrian armed opposition, the Syrian Free Army supported by Erdogan's government. For the moment, Turkey is biding its time and observing the situation.

- Can IS be defeated solely with air strikes?

- IS cannot be defeated without a ground operation. But the question is who will wage war against the terrorists with tanks, artillery and infantry. For the moment, it is the Kurdish detachments, the Peshmerga, that are fighting against IS on the ground, with support from the air. Certain military formations trained by the USA, Turkey and other countries in the anti-terrorist coalition are also fighting against IS, but this is not sufficient. War waged by separate armed formations which are not subordinated to an authoritative central command, will not result in success. These formations must moreover take political decisions, which will very likely reject the government in Damascus.

- What would make Russia agree to a military operation on the ground? Shall we say an IS strike on the Russian military base in [the Syrian port of] Tartus…  

- Russia is not inclined towards a ground operation. For Russia it is very risky to wage a ground war thousands of kilometres from home. The USSR's military campaign in Afghanistan, the USA's campaign in Iraq, Russia's campaign in Chechnya have demonstrated that the use of troops against different types of armed formations is fraught with big external and internal political problems. With the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the contradictory situation in the Middle East, Russia will not risk a war on the ground. A wider understanding points to the fact that Russia's military action against IS will not resolve the problem of terrorism in Syria itself. I can't imagine what circumstances would have to occur for Moscow to decide to enter this quagmire and put boots on the ground in Syria. For Russia it will be sufficient to pursue some kind of specific, swiftly achievable aims.

As far as a possible attack on the Russian base is concerned, IS is not attempting to advance westwards into Syria; the terrorists are planning to dig themselves in on the territories already captured in the central and northern parts of Syria. But this does not mean that they will not try to operate, using traditional methods such as blowing up vehicles and committing acts of terrorism against the facilities of Russia and other countries. For example, IS has carried out bloody acts of terrorism in Turkey. Naturally, the special services can limit the possibility of these acts happening to a certain extent. But terrorism is capable of infiltrating across frontiers.