TOTAL BANKRUPTCY

A few years ago, representatives of international financial institutions working in Armenia came up with a shocking conclusion that the country had developed "oil disease without oil". In the opinion of leading financiers, the Armenian society exists in isolation from the country's economy: a significant proportion of families survive exclusively thanks to private money transfers from abroad. 

Today, however, experts are pointing out another phenomenon: now the Armenian society, following its parting with the country's economy, is "breaking away" from its own politics and this has been demonstrated by the current phase of the constitutional reform. 

Let it be recalled that the parliament of Armenia approved by a majority vote a draft law for constitutional reforms to switch the country from presidential to parliamentary system of government. According to the draft, Armenia's president will be elected for seven rather than five years, and not through direct elections but by people's deputies and elected representatives of local government bodies. From now on, the government will be the highest body of the executive. Not only the economic block, finance and the like but also the army will be subordinated to the government. In peacetime, it is run by the defence minister. In case of war, the premier, rather than the president, will become the supreme commander-in-chief. The reasoning is simple, according to opposition politicians in Yerevan: accompanied by talks about democratization and decentralization of power, the incumbent Armenian president will safely move to the office of prime minister and actually remain the "boss of the country". Lastly, there are quite a lot of those who have warned all along that constitutional reforms, a referendum and agitation for and against may seriously ramp up tensions in the country. 

Serzh Sargsyan himself promised not to take the post of head of government but observers can recall offhand more than one instance where Sargsyan made sounding promises in public and then said that he had been misunderstood. 

As is known, the opposition is flatly opposed to suggested changes in the constitution. Here belong the Heritage party which is gaining in strength, Levon Ter-Petrosyan's Armenia National Congress, the radical Pre-Parliament and another few smaller parties making up the You Won't Pass movement. As a result, debates on the constitution in Armenia have gradually moved into the "for Sargsyan - against Sargsyan" dimension. Armenia's second President Robert Kocharyan has predictably spoken against: "My point of view in unchanged, namely, there is no need for constitutional reform, especially such a radical one. All challenges facing the country are quite solvable within the framework of the current constitution as nobody questions its functionality. The published draft exceeded my worst expectations. It is now not a matter of choosing between a semi-presidential and parliamentary forms of state government. The draft constitution carries essential risks of sliding towards an actual one-party system and therefore to political monopoly and stagnation. The Soviet Constitution contained a lot of fine words but Article 6 on the leading and guiding role of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union legitimized the political monopoly of the Communists. It is common knowledge what eventually became of the USSR".

Speaking in Armenian parliament, MP Zaruhi Postanjyan from the Heritage faction urged the country's citizens not to let the constitutional reforms go ahead. The reforms are called to keep incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan in power forever, she pointed out. During his term in office, half a million people have left the country, she said, but it seemed not enough to him and he is now trying to prolong his power, so that "people who continue to exist in Armenia" do not pin their hopes on its future anymore. She called on citizens to unite and start an action of mass disobedience towards all state structures. 

The constitutional reforms are being conducted without society's initiative and demand and ill-timed. Furthermore, their customer is Serzh Sargsyan. He is thus settling the issue of usurpation of supreme power by his clan and personally himself supported as a rule by the Republican junta and attached parties that pursue the goal of providing for their licentious lifestyle at the expense of Armenian citizens, the Democratic Armenia party's statement reads. In the party's opinion, "over the last 18 years, by its variegated 'political' illusion, the so-called junta mentioned above has brought Armenia to the brink of collapse and the moral and psychological atmosphere to a level of threat to national security which is fraught with irreparable consequences".

The "No" front also known as the You Won't Pass movement uniting opponents of the constitutional reform has held another rally outside the parliament walls. No large-scale clashes with police were registered. However, against expectations, rather few people attended the action. No more than 2,000 people came to the rally of opponents of constitutional reform. In Gyumri, the action gathered several hundred people. As a result, even the oppositionist newspaper Lragir had to state that "the 'No' movement came to an end at the fence of the National Assembly. Certainly, it is not the action but the movement's philosophy and its transformation that came to an end". According to the newspaper, the 'No' movement has never formulated an idea that would unite everybody. Society has heard various slogans from different forces of that "front", ranging from prohibition of constitutional reforms to change of power. In addition, the society heard the language that has been present in the political space for 20 years now and brought no fruits". 

According to experts close to Armenian's government circles, the opposition has failed to consolidate the protest electorate. Moreover, people in Yerevan streets do not believe the former leaders any more. "These gentlemen are talking over each other about the 'criminal government', about total corruption and closing up small and medium-sized businesses but they have no influence on the situation. And not because the government is sinless and the draft constitutional reform is the height of perfection but because the opposition niche in this country has been usurped for a long time by forces pursuing solely the interests of narrow group interests," the Voice of Armenia said. To speak plainly, both the authorities and the opposition are losing popularity. Armenia has met with total bankruptcy of its political class because neither Serzh Sargsyan's supporters nor his opponents are capable of offering society a realistic programme to get out of the catastrophic situation in which the country has found itself. To be precise, they hesitate to "voice" the fact that, without settling its relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey and not on Yerevan's terms, Armenia's problems can hardly ever be solved. As regards exchange of accusations such as "they are corruptionists, they are leading the country to a dictatorship!" and "They are ready to destroy Armenia statehood altogether", they are hardly able to win voters' sympathies, especially if the situation in the country is steadily worsening. And, most importantly, ever more of Armenia's most proactive citizens do not associate their future with that country anymore. Against this backdrop, total bankruptcy of the political class hardly looks like the long-awaited "stability" and "doing without great turmoil".