THERE IS LITTLE ROOM FOR MANOEUVRE

The Russian air strikes on the positions of terrorists in Syria have confused the already difficult situation in and around this country. Turkey is one of the active players in the development of the situation concerning its southern neighbour. However, the situation is unstable in Turkey itself, especially in light of the double terrorist attack in Ankara. Gareth Jenkins, an expert on Turkey at US John Hopkins University, shares his view of the situation in the region with R+.

- How may the terrorist attack in Ankara influence the further developments in Turkey ahead of the elections?

- The bombings in Ankara on 10 October appear to have entrenched the divisions in Turkish society between supporters and opponents of the AKP in general and President Erdogan in particular. Most of the government's opponents believe that Erdogan and the AKP were at least indirectly responsible for the bombings through their policies towards Syria and their failure to protect meetings by leftists and Kurdish nationalists. Some also believe that it instigated the attack. The government's supporters, of course, don't accept this and many believe that the attack was just another in what they believe is a long list of conspiracies to damage Erdogan and the AKP. As a result, social as well as political tensions are likely to remain high through to the polls on 1 November.

- Can this terrorist attack provoke PKK militants to intensify their attacks against the Turkish authorities?

- The first winter snows usually begin to fall in the main battlegrounds in the mountains of southeast Turkey in late October and make it very difficult for the PKK's military wing, the HPG, to conduct operations. On 10 October the PKK announced a suspension of the HPG's offensive operations in the run-up to the 1 November elections. But the level of violence in rural areas would have declined anyway because of the weather. The concern was that the focus of violence would then move to urban areas. Hopefully, this won't happen but the situation is highly volatile and there are very serious concerns about what could happen after the election, particularly if - as thankfully currently appears unlikely - the pro-Kurdish HDP falls short of the 10-per-cent threshold for representation in parliament.

- What do you think about Turkish policy towards Syria, where more and more countries are being dragged in?

- I don't think there is any doubt that Turkey's policy towards Syria has not only failed but demonstrated the limits of Ankara's claims to being a regional power. Assad remains in power and Turkey has been unable to engineer his overthrow. Even though some of Turkey's NATO allies have spoken of their desire to see Assad removed from power, none of them is prepared to commit the resources to trying to make it happen. Instead, they are prioritizing attacking the ISIS, which Ankara not only believes should be secondary to overthrowing Assad but also fears will strengthen the Syrian Kurdish PYD. So, from this perspective, Turkey is still isolated on Syria.

- By the way, how would you comment on Russia's actions in Syria?

- Russian military involvement in Syria, such as its air strikes against rebel positions, is a game changer. There had previously been a lot of speculation about whether Moscow would be prepared to allow Assad to lose power, particularly as it became clear that the regime was becoming weaker militarily. By attacking not only radical Islamists but also more moderate elements of the Syrian opposition Russia has demonstrated that it is committed to ensuring Assad remains in power, not just combating extremists. Even amongst those countries that were calling for Assad to be overthrown, there was little appetite to become actively engaged in Syria, such as by putting troops on the ground, before Russia launched its air strikes earlier this month. There is going to be even less appetite now when they could potentially face a military confrontation with Russia.

- Can Turkey find a compromise with Russia on the Syrian crisis?

- I think it is extremely difficult for the current government in Turkey to reach a compromise with Russia on Syria. Previously, even though they supported different sides in the Syrian Civil War, Russia and Turkey had managed to compartmentalize and prevent this disagreement from affecting other aspects of their bilateral relationship, such as their close economic ties. It may be possible to return to that situation, particularly if the military stalemate on the ground in Syria continues and there appears little prospect of either the regime or the rebels achieving a comprehensive victory. But, while they might eventually agree to disagree, I can't see Russia and Turkey reaching a compromise on what happens in Syria. Turkey has been adamant that Assad must go. Russia is equally adamant that he must stay. That doesn't leave much room for manoeuvre.