BETWEEN TWO FIRES

Nationalist sentiment is on the rise in Europe. Ha-ving originated in the contemporary period as reaction from European societies to the mass influx of migrants from countries of the Muslim East, it, nevertheless, puts the pan-European project under the threat of collapse. In any case, it threatens this project given its current neo-liberal interpretation, because the strengthening of the standing of the far-right National Front in domestic French politics may be considered an open challenge to it.

Between migrants and xenophobes, or Angela Merkel's Dilemma

In 2015, migration definitively entrenched itself as one of the most important challenges facing Europe. Millions of refugees, mostly alien to European culture and mentality, rushed in search of a better life and salvation from wars and destruction to "conquer" the safe countries of the Old World.

According to information available to the United Nations High Commis-sioner for Refugees, by the end of 2015 the number of migrants arriving in Europe through the Mediterranean Sea may reach one million. Not only people from the war-torn Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan - Muslim countries, plun-ged into the crucible of unending armed conflicts with the direct involvement of many EU member states - but also from sub-Saharan Africa, Pakistan, etc have flooded into Europe.

The European Commission has recognized that the current migration crisis has been the largest since the Second World War. Brussels is trying to tackle it by implementing the Dublin Regulation, which sets quotas for refugees accepted by each country of the European Union. However, a number of countries rejects the quota option towards the resolution of the migration problem. In particular, Slovakia and Hungary have demanded that the European Court cancel the quantitative refugee quotas. The growing divisions within the EU - western (rich) and eastern (far less rich) parts of the organization - which are characterized by attempts by the former to involve the latter in the distribution of migrants among all member states - also manifested themselves at this year's last EU summit in Brussels. All these challenges call into question the very existence of the EU, something that the president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, has warned about as well. "No one can say whether the EU will still exist in this form in 10 years' time. If we want that then we need to fight very hard for it," Schultz said. Schultz gave his assurances that an alternative to present-day Europe was an alliance of "nationalism, borders and walls". "That would be disastrous because that kind of Europe has repeatedly led our continent into catastrophe," he added. Earlier, Mr Schulz had said that the migration crisis could lead to a very deep split in the European Union.

Leipzig is only the beginning

Germany, Europe's most powerful economy, is turning into the key arena for discord within Europe over the migration issue. In contrast to the leaders of Slovakia and Hungary, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced willingness to accept an unlimited number of refugees. This statement considerably shook her political standing, even within her own party - the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Meanwhile, an increase in xenophobia will also have an impact on Berlin's position, one way or another.

The right-wing movement Pegida (Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the Occident) and the party Alternative for Germany, which say that there is the danger of Islamization of the country and the entire continent, are getting stronger in German's eastern states, which are receiving most of the refugees settling in Germany.

It is mainly leftist radical circles who try to counter the nationalist camp. A real carnage occurred between the far right and leftist radicals in the city of Leipzig during a demonstration of neo-Nazis. Police intervened in an attempt to subdue the rightist and leftist extremists. Dozens of law enforcers were injured. Most likely, the Leipzig riots are not the last test of this kind for the German authorities, as well as the entire political elite of the EU, which has found itself in between two fires - "strangers", who have been migrating from the East in masses, and their "own" people, who are unhappy with this migration and blame the European authorities for the threat of the collapse of the civilizational identity of the Old World. An example of this is the political process in another leading European country, France, which is getting increasingly enchanted by the National Front.

"Far-right danger", or Marine Le Pen's Record

Led by Marine Le Pen, the National Front generated the key intrigue in a regional election held in France. According to a view shared by experts, the election was the dress rehearsal of the upcoming 2017 presidential race. The reason is that a party that successfully overcomes the electoral process at local level is normally more likely to have its candidate win a presidential election.

The leader of the National Front, who has many times been accused of inciting anti-Muslim hatred, even before the election tried to mobilize her electorate with slogans like "Nothing can stop us!". Meanwhile, she did not conceal her vision of how the Islamization of France should be prevented. According to Le Pen, it can be prevented through "mobilization against the system". The authorities understood perfectly the rationale for the goal set by the leader of the National Front. Therefore, after the first round of the election, which the far right won, the head of the Socialist government, Manuel Valls, warned that the National Front coming to power "may lead to civil war".

Equally convincing in this regard was the mayor of Nice, Christian Estrosi, a prominent politician, who represents another systemic force - the Republican Party (successor to the Gaullist "Union for a Popular Movement"). He called on citizens to "resist" the National Front and urged all forces opposing it to join efforts: "Today, you cannot recall if you are left or right."

In the second round, the French far right failed to win in all regions. Contributing to this was the circumstance that representatives of the Socialists and Gaullists had called on their voters to give their votes to their rivals just in order to prevent the National Front from winning. Ho-wever, Marine Le Pen's party had three times more candidates entering local governments than after elections five years ago. On average around the country, the National Front was slightly behind the Socialist Party (27.1 per cent of votes against 32.12 per cent), but was impressively defeated by the Republicans (the result being 40.24 per cent) who won, incidentally speaking, largely owing to their voicing of nationalist rhetoric, which is often the same as Le Pen's.

The latter aspect indicates the strengthening of the standing of the leader of the Republicans - former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who obviously seeks to come back to the Elysee Palace.

Marine Le Pen, who pursues equally ambitious goals, realizes that at the moment those goals do not stand much chance of being achieved. After all, the local election once again confirmed that the systemic rightists and leftists always join efforts at moments when the National Front is a step away from power. Nevertheless, the regional election can be regarded as an asset for Le Pen's party. The National Front achieved an electoral record: some 6.6m people voted for it.

There is every reason to believe that this figure - which indicates the level of support from the population for the far right - will grow. This is because there are relevant grounds for the strengthening of the standing of the National Front: in France, which suffered terrible terrorist attacks on 13 November, there is an increase in anti-migrant and xenophobic sentiments, which will definitely also have an impact on the balance of political forces. It is not surprising that after the second round of the regional election, Prime Minister Valls thanked the French for preventing the National Front from coming to power and, however, said that France had still not escaped the "far-right danger" and that the "battle" needed to go on.