AN ATTEMPT TO DISCREDIT THE IMAGE

At the beginning of 2016, just as a year ago, Turkey was rocked by the monstrous acts of terrorism, which this time took place in Istanbul's Sultanahmet Square and in the province of Diyarbakir. In response, the government has imposed a curfew and the army is carrying out thorough sweeps in the cities of the southwest region, where PKK terrorists are operating. At the same time, the Turkish army fired more than 500 times at ISIL positions in Syria and Iraq from artillery and tanks. In short, as promised by Prime Minister Ahmet Davut-oglu, Ankara has opened a merciless war against all those who encroach on the stability and security of Turkey. Oytun Orhan, an expert at the Turkish Centre for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (Turkish: Ortadogu Stratejik Arastirmalar Merkezi), has told R+ about what is happening in the brotherly country and a strategic ally of Azerbaijan.

- As stated by the Turkish authorities, the Istanbul attack was carried out by the ISIL terrorist organization. What specific goals is it seeking to achieve in Turkey?

- Over the past six months, Turkey has stepped up pressure on the Islamic State in a number of important areas. This has spouted tough anti-Turkish rhetoric from jihadi leaders. They have made it clear that from now on, ISIL members in Turkey have a free hand; there even have been calls to jihadists to "proceed to action". According to the Turkish president, acts of terrorism and explosions in Ankara and Istanbul should be viewed as ISIL's retaliation. Moreover, the terrorist attack in Istanbul's Sultanahmet Square has targeted such an important sector of the Turkish economy as tourism. Terrorists have sought to discredit the image of Turkey in the international arena.

- The Turkish army has begun shelling ISIL positions with artillery and tank fire. Does it increase the likelihood of a Turkish ground operation in Syria and Iraq?

- By agreement between Ankara and Washington, a security zone was plan-ned to be created in the north of Syria, but this plan was not implemented because of the crisis in Russian-Turkish relations. Russia made it clear that it would strike at any non-governmental armed groups in the region. Therefore, Turkey suspended air strikes on ISIL targets in northern Syria. Meanwhile, the Turkish army is successfully destroying terrorist bases in the 50-km zone along the Turkish-Syrian border by means of long-range artillery and missiles. As far as Iraq is concerned, Turkish military bases in Iraq's Kurdish-controlled provinces may be brought into play, along with the artillery in the border area. These bases are used for training of Iraqi soldiers by Turkish military experts. Tanks and artillery deployed there can also be used against terrorists. Importantly, it is possible to successfully fight the jihadists, which mainly control territories along the Turkish border, even without the use of aircraft.

- What will happen if ISIL strikes back at Turkey with missiles?

- Judging by the capabilities and tactics of ISIL armed formations, an adequate response on the part of the terrorists - the shelling of the Turkish territory - is unlikely. ISIL is a prototype of al-Qa'eda. Such organizations have their own favourite tactics of warfare - suicide bombings. A frontal attack on the Turkish army will bring ISIL in a direct confrontation with a very powerful opponent. Naturally, Turkey will take whatever measures are necessary in this case to deal a crushing blow to the terrorists.

- Can the shelling of ISIL positions and the killing of more than 200 jihadists cause expansion of the zone of terrorist activity in Turkey? For example, in Antalya, the Mediter-ranean region, where a lot of tourists are on holidays in summer?

- A brutal civil war has been raging along the Turkey-Syria border for more than five years. The war has resulted in the emergence of radical organizations, one of which is ISIL. It is clear that, conducting an open door policy, Turkey could not have remained unaffected by this radicalization. Regardless of the scale of security measures implemented, it is impossible to block illegal crossings on the border completely. At the same time, we must bear in mind that ISIL is an international organization composed of people from 80 countries, including Turkish citizens. They are coming back, one by one, and Turkish security forces ever more often thwart attempts of terrorist attacks in the country. But they cannot prevent all of the attacks. Until the Syrian conflict is resolved, Turkey will run a high risk of terrorist attacks. Terrorists have the intention to expand the geography of terror, to show Turkey as a country that is powerless before the threat of terrorism. It is likely that they will choose targets in Antalya or some other tourist region. But the Turkish security forces continuously strengthen and improve measures aimed at preventing terrorist acts. I think that preventive measures will continue to be improved in the future, too, but there is no guarantee that terrorist acts will be eliminated completely. As demonstrated by the bloody events in Paris, this problem faces not only Turkey; this problem has a global dimension.

- In such a case, will Turkey be able to ensure the security of international projects such as TANAP, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, Baku-Tbilisi-Kars and others, in which Azerbaijan takes part?

- The issue of security of energy projects is being widely discussed in Turkey. It is believed that external forces will try to use the threat emanating from ISIL and the PKK in order to sabotage major international energy projects in Turkey. But in general, there is no specific and clear threat to such projects. As events in the Middle East show, international energy and communication projects are threatened when the central government becomes weak. As long as the central government is strong, it can guarantee the security of international transport and energy systems. To date, Turkey has a strong central government and powerful security services. I think that within one or two months the situation in Eastern Anatolia will be taken entirely under the control of the authorities. As for the other regions of the country, the possibility of terrorist attacks is extremely limited. Turkish law enforcement authorities are able to ensure maximum safety of operation of all international projects.

- How come that the PKK has managed to carry out large-scale terrorist attacks with the use of tons of explosives in the region of Diyarbakir controlled by the Turkish secret services?

- PKK leaders have decided that Turkey has been weakened by its fight against ISIL, and it is time to create their own government in the regions with strong PKK cells. In this case, they used the capabilities of and their experience of cooperation with organizations of Syrian Kurds. The PKK aims to transfer the Syrian Kurds' warfare experience to Turkey. But the latter's advances have only been made possible due to the weakening of the Syrian government. As no such conditions exist in Turkey, the PKK hopes to weaken the government in Ankara through an external conflict, in particular, through the fight against ISIL.

- Can we say that Turkey is actually fighting on two fronts - with the PKK and ISIL?

- Yes. For example, a police officer was killed in [the Turkish town of] Suruc. In this region, the Turkish army simultaneously bombed both PKK bases and ISIL positions in Syria. At the same time, support is provided to the Syrian opposition, which is at war with ISIL.

- How will events unfold in the "third front" - the political confrontation with Russia?

- Unfortunately, the relations between Turkey and Russia will continue to deteriorate in 2016. Russia promises to provide full support to the Kurdish armed groups in Syria, to provide for an offensive of the Syrian army and Kurdish armed groups and to take control of the regions adjacent to the Turkish border. Thus, Moscow can strike at areas vital for Ankara. Naturally, the Turkish government will do everything possible to thwart this plan. Such a scenario not only threatens to aggravate political tension between the Russian Federation and Turkey, but it can even lead to a military confrontation with Moscow. Messages coming from Russia give reason to believe that Moscow does not intend to relieve the tension in relations with Ankara. In this case, the rivalry between the two countries will only grow in the region.