THE DRAGON RISING

Chinese president Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Egypt on January 19-24 once again demonstrated the truth that political scientists love to repeat: the "Chinese dragon" is not worried by geopolitical or religious differences, because only its economic gain is important. As American political scientist Joshua Cooper Ramo noted, China is spreading an alternative theory of development and international relations. Beijing is methodically following its own path. For example, it refrains from supporting this or that side in Middle Eastern conflicts, makes no statements regarding the Sunni-Shiite confrontation, and looks at the consequences of the now-subsided Arab Spring in terms of investments, not politics. For this reason the Chinese leader visited the rival countries - Iran and Saudi Arabia - one after another at the very height of yet another round in their confrontation, one which has led to a break in their diplomatic relations.

In a document titled "Policy Regarding Arab Countries" which the Chinese Foreign Ministry released shortly before Xi Jinping's trip to Riyadh, the countries of the Arab world are viewed not in light of their internal nuances and disagreements, but as a single whole. This approach, apparently, suits these Arab countries as well. In an interview with Xinhua, Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby called Xi Jinping's visit historic, and said that current relations between the Arab states and China are ideal. China is the Arab world's second largest trading partner, and a leading role here is played by Saudi Arabia, even though diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Beijing were set up relatively recently. The catalyst was economics - China imports approximately one-sixth of its oil from Saudi Arabia.

During Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia a number of agreements and memoranda were signed that guarantee the stable delivery of fossil fuels. However, no less notable, albeit not as widely discussed, are the agreements on nuclear and green energy. Saudi Arabia, whose territory contains up to 24 per cent of the world's known oil reserves, is presented in the media largely as a state entirely dependent on its oil wealth. At the same time, it is not especially advertised that Riyadh has set itself an ambitious plan - one that will cost it tens of billions of dollars - of producing 55 gigawatts of solar energy by 2032 and becoming one of the world leaders in the field. Energy consumption in Saudi Arabia is growing by seven percent annually, but currently it is generated by burning oil (25 per cent of all that is extracted), which accounts for the country occupying sixth place in use of "black gold" world-wide. If consumption continues to grow at the same rate, by 2040 the country will have to import oil, which will deal a heavy blow to the kingdom's income, which is already reeling from the negative effects of a serious fall in oil prices. This is why development of alternative sources is necessary, and nearly ideal conditions (sandstorms aside) exist for that development - vast deserts and intense solar exposure. China also senses a constant deficit of energy resources and cannot reduce the proportion of coal in overall usage, which is leading to serious ecological problems; for this reason the development of alternative energy is just as necessary to China as it is to Saudi Arabia. Although the share of green energy in China's overall energy balance is currently very small, tremendous sums are being allocated for its development. The boldest estimates indicate that by 2030 that alternative energy is planned to make up approximately 50 per cent of the total. Interestingly, several sources currently state that by volume of investments in alternative energy the People's Republic of China, which is also the largest producer of solar batteries, leads over many European countries and the United States. Therefore the PRC and Saudi Arabia are currently setting up a partnership which in future might set the tone for the energy sector - something just as serious as its current arrangement, that of "largest oil-seller in the world and the world's largest oil-buyer."

However, China currently needs large amounts of oil, and what brought the head of the People's Republic to Iran was, most likely, the lifting of sanctions against Tehran by the UN Security Council, the United States, and the EU. Beijing, by the way, played a constructive role in that lifting of sanctions. Until then the PRC paid no real attention to the punitive measures enacted against Tehran by the West, continuing to buy oil and deliver military technology and industrial equipment to the Iranians. In the absence of competitors, China gained significant discounts, and could also dictate its conditions to the Iranian business world and in other areas. Now new contracts must be made, and the scope of cooperation looks rather vast - the creation of a free trade zone, atomic energy, the construction of infrastructure, etc., which is why China is trying so hard to occupy favourable positions. Aside from oil and gas, not to mention an enormous consumer market of 78 million people, to China Iran is its most important participant in the project for a new Silk Road. 

As for Egypt, after the political turmoil and the blow struck by terrorists against its tourist business, the country can now be, as they say, taken for granted. Even before the visit it was noted that China had given Egypt a credit of one billion dollars to support its gold reserves and is opening a credit line of 800 million dollars to carry out joint projects in various fields - from energy to agriculture. However, China has always had large financial interests in Egypt - the volume of bilateral trade between Cairo and Beijing reached 12 billion dollars last year, and China is currently Egypt's largest trading partner. Xi Jinping had beforehand planned to participate in the opening of a second line of a Chinese-Egyptian trade and economic cooperation zone in the region of Ain Sukhna, in which approximately 900 million dollars have already been invested, a figure that should grow to 30 billion. For China Egypt is not only a very important staging point for the African continent, but also means proximity to European markets.

Despite the slowdown in the Chinese economy and criticism from international experts that Beijing publishes unreliable official statistics, meaning that figures for growth in its national GDP cannot be trusted completely, the Chinese dragon remains the West's most serious competitor. Especially ambitious are Beijing's external projects related to the restoration of the Great Silk Road. The idea of a "single zone, a single road" should tie various countries in an enormous area to China in particular. Iran and the countries of the Arab world need Chinese investments and technologies, while China is interested in transit, entering new markets, and - as has been mentioned already - sources of energy other than oil and the fossil fuels (of which the territory of what's called the Greater Middle East has an incredible amount) essential for the development of industry.

The region, however, is extremely unstable. International terrorism is a serious problem for future economic plans, and China, going far beyond its borders, cannot sidestep the issue. It is for this reason that Chinese warships take part in operations against pirates in the Gulf of Aden. In addition, just before the New Year news came out that China is creating a naval base in Djibouti, its first military base in Africa. According to American experts, flights from its airfield will allow Beijing to gather intelligence in the Persian Gulf, Middle East, and Africa. Recently rumours have even leaked into the media that the PRC is considering participation in military operations against Islamic State. China is disturbed by the growing number of militants of Chinese origin - terrorists having gone through military training could give Beijing significant trouble in the unstable Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. At the same time threats to its economic interest also play an important role, of course. Experts do not exclude the possibility that terrorist groups, forced out of Iraq and Syria, will begin to make inroads into the countries of Central Asia, where China already has many large projects. China's intervention in the battle against ISIS is unlikely to be direct, although it is possible that Beijing will not resist the urge to indirectly try its strength in real combat conditions. In addition, China's potential can also be used to find a common denominator for those countries who are battling ISIS but whose disagreements mean that a war against terrorism begins to look like a war against one another. The People's Republic of China has good relations with Iran, the countries of the Arab world, Russia, Turkey, and Israel. If China wants to strengthen its position as a growing geopolitical force, this is the best moment for it. The PRC's current economic troubles can only spur on this process, since economic expansion must be accompanied by serious diplomacy and growing military presence.