WHO SIDES WITH AND AGAINST WHOM?

Mass protests have swept one of the poorest countries of the former Soviet space, Moldova. The left and right wings of the opposition have joined their efforts in struggle against the government. Meanwhile, the confrontation unfolding in Moldova has a pronounced geopolitical hidden motive.

The positions of the pro-Western bloc headed by the Democratic Party, which has been leading Moldova for the past six years, has seriously been undermined by last year's scandal surrounding the theft of 1bn euros from local banks. Both left- and right-wing opposition forces accused the authorities of misappropriation of the country's finances. Even European institutions, persistently involving Chisinau into their orbit of influence, had to admit the existence of serious problems of criminal nature in Moldova. In his article published in The New York Times, Council of Europe Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland made an overt statement that over the last six years, "little has been done [in Moldova] to open up the country's economy and its institutions. Corruption remains endemic and the state is still in the hands of oligarchs".

The developments in Moldova became hyperacute at the beginning of this year, after the Democratic Party tried to install Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Plahotniuc, who is considered to be one of the most powerful oligarchs in the country, as the head of government. The opposition immediately arrayed against such a scenario. Moldovan President Nicolae Timofti did not dare to approve the promotion of the odious politician to premiership. Then, instead of Plahotniuc, the Democratic Party nominated Pavel Filip for the post of prime minister, who is known to be the oligarch's protege.

Anticipating intense anti-government protests, the ruling circles decided to keep secret the date of the vote on the candidacy of prime minister. On 20 January, it suddenly became known that the parliament was convened to approve a new government. As a result, the parliamentary session only lasted for half an hour, and the legislators approved the composition and programme of the government without debate. By the way, the majority in the 101-seat Moldovan parliament consists of 56 deputies representing the ruling coalition, and the new cabinet was approved in the absence of more than a third of the deputies. After that, the newly elected prime minister and his supporters left the parliament building in a hurry, as protesters had already begun to gather around it.

Soon the protesters broke through police lines and stormed into the parliament building. According to media reports, 15 people were injured in clashes with police. Later the protesters left the empty parliament building but demanded early elections and the resignation of not only the prime minister but also the president who, in spite of the mass protests, signed a decree approving Filip as the head of government.

Conspicuous is the fact that resentment at the country's leadership brought together representatives of various political camps in Moldova, including left- and right-wing, pro-Russian and pro-Western forces. Leaders of major opposition organizations - Igor Dodon (Party of Socialists), Renato Usatii (Our Party) and Andrei Nastase (Dignity and Truth civic platform) called on citizens to "stand up to the end and overthrow the mafia regime".

Statements made by Moldovan oppositionists eloquently speak about the commonality of their tactical objectives at the moment. Socialist Igor Dodon pointed to the illegitimacy of Filip's government. Popular right-wing politician Vasile Nastase of Dignity and Truth, which advocates the country's pro-European way of development, blamed the authorities by saying that "under the banner of European integration these criminals steal billions from us and introduce such taxes that lead people to impoverishment".

In hope of reaching an agreement with the opposition, Parliament Speaker Andrian Candu held a meeting with their leaders. However, they were adamant in their demands, in response to which Candu showed no less uncompromising a stance, making it clear that the authorities would not agree to early elections. Having asserted that the "government is lawful", the speaker mentioned, as an argument, the support provided to official Chisinau by its European partners. Let us dwell on this point in more detail.

Given that the ruling coalition in Moldova implements a pronounced pro-Western course, it enjoys strong support from both the United States and the European Union. It is not surprising that such a hasty and secretive approval of the new Moldovan cabinet was unanimously upheld by the Euro-Atlantic capitals because otherwise the country would be faced with the prospect of early elections. But this prospect did not suit - and does not suit now, amid the opposition's claims - the interests of the United States and the European Union, which have serious reasons to believe that, after the elections, the positions of pro-Western forces may be weakened, while success may attend the Party of Socialists and Our Party that have the reputation of being pro-Russian.

Meanwhile, the latter's chances of coming to power gradually increase as the economic situation in Moldova deteriorates, the responsibility for which rests with the government, of course. Under the six-year rule of pro-Western leaders, Moldova's GDP has decreased by a factor of 2.5, whereas loans received from international financial institutions have been shamelessly embezzled through various corruption schemes, as follows from local and world media reports, as well as statements by Moldovan and some European politicians, e.g., aforementioned Thorbjorn Jagland.

At a time of extreme worsening of the situation in Moldova which even threatens with a violent overthrow of the current government, the US is trying to persuade the opposition leaders not to heat up political passions. This is evidenced by Igor Dodon's invitation to a meeting with US Ambassador James Pettit in Chisinau for a discussion. However, its nature was predetermined by the position of the Moldovan Socialists' leader who expressed readiness to tell the head of the US diplomatic mission that "Moldova is not a banana republic, and Moldovans are not to be considered as Papuans". In this regard, one may also recall Dodon's recent criticism of Washington for "supporting corrupt politicians in Moldova because of geopolitical considerations".

Evidencing the geopolitical implication of recent events in Moldova, which should be considered in the context of the escalating confrontation between Russia and the West, primarily in the post-Soviet space, is the adoption by the European Parliament of an important resolution on the day after the Moldovan oppositionists stormed the parliament building. The document positively assesses the first steps of Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova in implementing the agreements on association and free trade with the EU and emphasizes that the "funds made available must be spent well, and that by themselves they are not enough to stabilize the economy". One of the key provisions of the resolution is the condemnation of the "actions taken by Russia to undermine or derail the pro-European course taken by the three association countries".

The geopolitical component of the Moldovan crisis is also confirmed by official Chisinau, which adopted, in particular, a decision to ban the admission of Russian journalists to the country, and by the Kremlin, where a Security Council meeting chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin was held, dedicated to the discussion of events in Moldova along with domestic Russian problems.

Undoubtedly, the external factor is going to make increasingly greater impact on the growth of internal contradictions in Moldova. Given that, future prospects of the pro-European camp of Moldovan politics, which is experiencing a split, remain uncertain, as its different flanks are grappling in the struggle for the division of power resources in the country. Clearly, the ruling Democratic Party will try to stay in power at any cost, as evidenced by the new prime minister's call to police to "act decisively against demonstrators who violate public order". However, what position will be taken by the pro-European party "Dignity and Truth" if Moldova is really faced with the prospect of the coming to power of the leftist, let alone pro-Russian forces in tactical alliance with which the party of the Nastase brothers rushed headlong into the fight against the "corrupt government"?

This question is a major intrigue of the political action unfolding in Moldova, in the context of which the authorities are trying to cut the opposition down to its size, the latter threatens with protests "to the bitter end", whereas powerful external centres have locked horns in another battle for dominance in the post-Soviet space for the sake of their own interests.