ON THE THRESHOLD OF A NEW EPOCH

The fulfilment of the conditions of Iran's agreement with the "six" international mediators on the nuclear programme has led to the lifting of the majority of the sanctions against the IRI. A country with a huge market is opening up to the world. The world's biggest companies are even now preparing to march on Iran's promising economy. Tehran promises not just a return to the pre-sanctions situation, but to a new country, a new era and a boom in all the main branches of the Iranian economy. To find out what Iran will be like after sanctions and isolation, R+ talked to Iranian political expert, Professor Ghadir Golkarian.

- The sanctions imposed over Iran's nuclear programme have been finally ended. What expectations do the Iranian people have? Some of the media are predicting the beginning of a new historic period in Iran.

- After negotiations that went on for two years the unfounded sanctions against Iran have been completely lifted. As you are aware, the people of Iran have had a hard time with the imposition of the embargo. Despite all the restrictions, the country has continued to develop. Naturally, the Iranian people are placing great hopes on the lifting of the embargo. I think that the new opportunities that are opening up in political, economic, trade and other areas will be accompanied by social and cultural development. The situation could be seen as a turning point in the development of the Iranian state and people. First and foremost, the positive results of the lifting of sanctions will affect young people, who make up 43 per cent of the Iranian population. There are new opportunities in education, absorbing technology, science, research, and so on. The people were confident that the embargo would eventually be lifted, and these sanctions have also had a negative impact on the economy of the western countries, including the US. 

- Special credit for the lifting of the sanctions goes to the government of Hassan Rouhani, who has the image of a pragmatic politician. Might the government embark on changes in domestic policy? For example, in the question of human rights, teaching the Azerbaijani language, women's rights, freedom of speech, etc?

- During the election campaign Rouhani promised to do everything possible to get the sanctions lifted. He promised to transfer the question of Iran's nuclear programme from a political to a legal plane. Rouhani kept his word, although it was very difficult to do so.

The point is that within Iran this was opposed by radicals and Conservatives, and in the US by members of the Republican Party. Israel and the political lobby AIRAK (American Israeli Public Affairs Committee), which represents this state's interests, were also against the agreement in the context of the 5+1 group. Some Middle Eastern countries, who see Iran as a competitor in the region, were also opponents of the agreement with Iran.

The situation is unique in the sense that since 1979 the Iranian people have been deprived a tranquil life, as they say. First, there was acute polarization and confrontation within the country, then the Iran-Iraq war and, finally, the imposition of the embargo.

Thanks to cautious and pragmatic actions in relation to domestic and foreign reactionary forces, the Iranian government was able to arrive at a successful outcome. It should be noted that the domestic reforms and changes that were carried out constrained the restrictions in foreign policy. In conditions of peace and tranquillity the government will embark on the necessary reforms in the legal and cultural spheres, guaranteeing the rights of ethnic groups, women, freedom of speech, and so on. The present government is aware that the future development of the state depends on a solution to these questions. It is impossible to bring the country into line with modern international standards without carrying out these reforms. If the government has set a task to turn Iran into a strong and prosperous state, it must carry out the lawful demands and will of the people. Otherwise, unexpected and very undesirable events will occur in relations between the Iranian people and government. Today the Iranian public knows that in today's world politics, economics, technology and social life change rapidly. One hour lost means stepping back years. Today, nobody in the IRI wants to be like the ant that falls from a wall and has to climb up it again. Reforms are the wish of the population and the authorities of the IRI. 

- Will Iran be opening its own market to foreign investments and how will this impact on Iranian society?

- It has to be said that in recent years the United Arab Emirates and Turkey have made very intelligent use of the restrictions imposed on the IRI. Broadly speaking, they have created a foundation for the future economic development of their countries. The Emirates, having created the major port of Jebel Ali, have attracted 700 leading Iranian companies to this project. This is 10 per cent of all successful Iranian enterprises. Turkey, having created a free economic area, has attracted 3,500 Iranian investors. In March 2010, following the disconnection of Iranian banks from the SWIFT system, all firms operating in the trade sphere had to choose Turkey or the UAE. In other words, our companies, if they wanted to make a profit, had to develop the economy of other countries.

Meanwhile, the demands of the domestic market had to be satisfied by the mediation of foreign companies, and this led to an unfounded increase in the cost of all imports.

Today, the situation has changed radically. Iran needs 75-85bn dollars of domestic or foreign investments. Foreign capital is particularly in demand in such spheres as power engineering, the hotel business, machine-building, highway construction, and so on. Various sectors of the economy need investment. Today, OPEC's oil price is close on 22 dollars a barrel. And Iran's state budget is calculated at an oil price of 40 dollars. If oil prices continue to fall, the budget can expect certain difficulties. At the moment there is no deficit here. Oil revenues make up just 25 per cent of the state budget. Iran was prompt in differentiating state budget revenues, which enables it to avoid problems linked with a fall in oil prices. It should be noted that quite a number of EU countries are already having talks on investing in the country's energy sector and the motor-vehicle construction sphere. Some contracts have already been signed. As we know, the World Bank has this year predicted a 5-per cent growth in Iran's economy. At the present time, the expected level of foreign investments is 30-50bn dollars. If investments are not at the expected level, Iran's Central Bank will be able to use the 32bn dollars frozen in US' financial structures. The development of events enables one to expect that as trade increases, so will the level of social security, unemployment and inflation will fall and there will be positive changes in various spheres of the life of the Iranian people.

- There are fears in Azerbaijan that when it comes out of isolation Iran will return to a policy of exporting the Islamic Revolution…

- The Islamic Revolution in Iran was not some kind of local event. Among other things, after the collapse of the USSR, fundamental changes occurred in the world in the struggle of ideologies. In Central Asia, in place of clashes between the ideologies of communism and capitalism, there came a confrontation between the ideologies of Islam and imperialism. There are still fears in Muslim countries that an Islamic Revolution will be brought into their country from outside. I think that the countries that are conducting an imperialist policy in this region are cultivating this fear. Today, the spread of terrorism is the result of this ideological struggle and fear.

Pressure is put on the Islamic world by means of a policy of Islamophobia and a desire to intimidate people through Islam and Muslims. In my opinion, the tragic events in the region - terrorism - are an attempt to put pressure on Iran and to prevent the possibility of an Islamic Revolution in other countries. The IRI has said on a number of occasions that it is categorically opposed to interference in the internal affairs of other countries. I think that the Iranian state has coordinated its foreign policy with world policy and rejected the priority of the export of an Islamic Revolution. However, one needs to take into account the fact that Iran is prepared to support any people that wishes to take advantage of Iran's experience of an Islamic Revolution and its corresponding achievements in the socio-political and cultural life of the country. Naturally, this cannot happen by forceful means or external interference, but can only be the independent, conscious decision of the people of this country.

- Azerbaijan and the IRI have had a period of cooling of relations. Iran saw Azerbaijan's cooperation with the US and Israel as a threat, and Azerbaijan was unhappy about Iran's support for the Armenian aggressor. What will Iran's current policy in the South Caucasus be?

- First of all, I would like to note that the positions of Iran and Azerbaijan coincide on many issues. But even with a common viewpoint, each country has its own national interests. Quite recently we saw differences in positions towards Iran's nuclear programme between such close allies as the US and Israel. It is perfectly normal that differences should emerge from time to time between the IRI and Azerbaijan. Indeed, Tehran expressed concern at the possibility of Azerbaijan being used as a bridgehead in plans against the IRI. Every state has the right to build its relations with other countries as it sees fit. If these relations do not constitute a threat to other countries, then all claims here are groundless. Cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel could be at any level. Only then can you speak about a violation of international standards of neighbourliness if a threat to Iran's security emerges as a result of this cooperation. The same may be said about relations between Iran and Armenia. If these relations do not threaten Azerbaijan's security, there are no grounds for concern in Baku. Such are the principles of standards and rules of international relations.

- Experts are predicting that Iran's entry into the oil market will lead to an even greater fall in oil prices…

- Because of the embargo, Iran was for several years denied the opportunity to enter the international oil market. Now, Iran has been given the opportunity to sell up to an extra 500,000 barrels of oil. Naturally, this will lead to a reduction in world oil prices. Here it should be pointed out that today the fall in world oil prices is the result of the policy of the major exporters: Saudi Arabia and other Arab states. At this moment, the policy of these countries is aimed at reducing oil prices in order to cause a financial-economic crisis in Iran. But it is the Saudis themselves, who have a budget deficit of 100bn dollars, who are suffering from this policy, and there has been an unprecedented increase in petrol prices there. I believe this fall in prices is a temporary phenomenon. Over time, along with OPEC, Russia, Norway and the US will stabilize prices on the world oil market. On the whole, price-fixing on the world oil market depends, first and foremost, on the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.