SINCE EXPELLING IS IMPOSSIBLE, LET THEM STAY

The European Union (EU) and Turkey are trying to resolve the question of millions of current and future refugees from the Middle East and North Africa. According to European officials and Turkish politicians, Brussels and Ankara have broadly reached a consensus, and the EU believes that the agreements with Ankara will, in fact, make it possible for the channel of illegal migration across the Aegean Sea and the West Balkans to be closed. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that "illegal migration will now turn into legal migration". However, not everyone holds such optimistic views - both as regards the actual possibility of the implementation of the agreements and to what degree the humanitarian aspect and human rights will be observed in this process.

Causes

The EU must resolve the critical situation with the migrants as soon as possible and, by all accounts, by any means. According to Eurostat [European statistics directorate], in 2015 the EU received 1.25 million applications for asylum and migrants are continuing to arrive. In the next few years Germany alone expects no less than 2 million asylum seekers, and hundreds of thousands more people are "dispersing" to unknown destinations. Dimitris Avramopoulos, EU Commissioner for Migration and Citizenship, believes that the current crisis with the migrants entering Europe could turn into a humanitarian disaster. Moreover, there is an increasing threat to the national security of the EU member-countries and the crime situation is getting worse. For example, during the terrorist acts in Paris last year it was established that some of those who organized the explosions had arrived in France under the guise of refugees. The fact that migrants celebrated the New Year in Cologne and other cities shocked the whole of Germany. As a result, free movement within the Schengen Agreement - one of the pillars of the European Union - came under threat.

For some politicians, such as Angela Merkel, the agreements reached were absolutely vital, especially with local elections due. In Germany the refugee problem has become a domestic issue, and the results of any elections will be regarded as a referendum on the effectiveness of the government's current policy.

Turkey has a vested interest in talks with the EU on this question because this will significantly enhance its geopolitical status and value as a partner in the eyes of its European neighbours. According to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has always been to the fore in opposing Turkey's membership of the EU, Turkey is "unquestionably of interest to Europe". In exchange for assistance with the migrants, Ankara is asking for financial help, a speeding up of the visa liberalization plan and the opening of new chapters in the negotiations process for Turkey's entry into the EU.

Figures

In actual fact, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), of the over a million refugees who arrived in the European Union last year, more than 850,000 reached Greece by sea via Turkey. Turkey itself has already taken in over 2.7 million Syrian refugees and over 200,000 Iraqis, but has also agreed to take in all illegal economic migrants who do not have the right to asylum in the EU and who have arrived there illegally through its (Turkish) territory. It appears that all migrants who cross from Turkey to Greece by sea with the help of smugglers and transport operators will be sent back. The EU, for its part, must take in Syrians who have been given the official status of refugees. In other words, a system of "legal migrants to the EU and illegal migrants to Turkey" is being drawn up, although some of the Syrian refugees will remain on Turkish territory, paid for by Europe.  

A number of sources say that Ankara asked the EU for up to 20bn euros to solve the migration problem, although this figure has not been confirmed anywhere. All that is confirmed is that Turkey asked the EU for 3bn euros up to 2018. This is on top of the 3bn euros which the EU already decided to give Ankara for these purposes last November. The head of the European Commission, [Jean-Claude] Juncker, announced that 95m of this sum had already been paid to provide schools in the Arabic language for Syrian children in Turkey. If anyone wishes to accuse Turkey of having a purely mercenary interest in this question, then they should know that the EU is already allocating money to Turkey as a candidate country (for reforms, democratization and aligning with European values). According to the French media, this considerable sum of 10.5bn will be issued from 2007 to 2020 as part of promotion (6bn have already been paid, and the remaining 4.5bn are due to be allocated over the next four years), part of which is also destined to provide border and migration control. In addition, the EU has already given Turkey 51bn euros for the Syrian refugees. Moreover, Slate-fr writes, such funding is of benefit to both Turkey and the EU. "If the EU stops funding, it loses the "return" on its investments because a large part of the money provided to Turkey returns to Europe and is used to fund the dispatch of European experts and the work of enterprises with headquarters in Europe," the French publication writes, adding that in this instance "financial aid does not overlap with political".

In the question of migrants it is politics that is in the foreground. And, of course, the results of the talks between Ankara and Brussels were not to everyone's liking. That is why the head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, said that the question of Turkey's membership of the EU should be separate from the talks with Ankara on the migration crisis. Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann believes that the EU should not "sacrifice its political principles" and change its position on questions of easing the visa regime and the inclusion of Turkey, and accordingly, Brussels should not rely on Turkey to overcome the crisis with the migrants but should independently ensure the protection of its external borders. The Financial Times writes that the former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, was categorically opposed to waiving visas with Turkey. In Germany, a similar view is held by the Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party, which are part of the ruling coalition. In The Guardian newspaper, the former Belgian prime minister, Guy Verhofstadt, now leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), a faction of the European Parliament, advised that "divided and desperate European leaders are incapable of taking effective collective measures" and are "obsessed with creating a system that would 'stem the flow' - i.e. pushing the desperate refugees back into the Aegean sea".

Main routes

Meanwhile, side-by-side with the "Turkish agreements", Brussels has decided to close to refugees the so-called "Balkan route", the main road along which the migrants travel to Northern Europe. Although, essentially, this is a statement of fact. The countries through which the main route of the huge flow of migrants runs (Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary and Austria) have refused to allow the refugees to enter their territory. Starting from 9 March, only those migrants seeking political asylum in these countries, or those needing humanitarian aid, are being allowed into Slovenia and Croatia. Serbia has said that it will close its borders with Macedonia and Bulgaria to those without documents. Macedonia says that it will no longer allow migrants through its border with Greece. Hungary's Foreign Minister [Peter Szijjarto] warned that if the flow of migrants increases his country might erect a solid barbed-wire fence along its border with Romania. Earlier, Hungary had already put up a fence on its borders with Serbia and Croatia. Hungary is also planning to question its quota of migrants in the European Court.

However, if the "Balkan route" is closed, the EU will have to prevent the blocking of migrants on Greek territory. Various reports say that the number of newly arriving migrants is already in excess of 2-3,000 a day. The EU countries are planning to speed up the process of resettling refugees who have been provided with accommodation from Greece to the countries of the community. But the main thing is that Turkey starts to take back illegal migrants. Meanwhile, as Turkey's Minister for European Affairs, Volkan Bozkir, has said, the agreement between Turkey and the EU on the readmission of immigrants does not apply to illegals who are already on Greek islands, but only to those who arrive in the country after the EU adopts the agreement. Bozkir also stressed that, as part of the agreement with the EU, Turkey will take back tens of thousands and not hundreds of thousands, never mind millions of migrants. Besides this, the EU should not and will not be able to select refugees according to their profession, and this process will be monitored by the office of the UN High Commissioner for the Affairs of Refugees.

Mechanisms

And this is the "first sign" of possible differences when it comes to the specific mechanisms of implementing the agreements between the EU and Turkey. Above all, this will affect the procedure for identifying refugees and the "capturing" of false passports. IS' potential in this sphere is well known and the Turkish-Syrian border throughout the whole of its 822 km offers good opportunities for terrorists. Finally, how will the selection of Syrian refugees be made - who will remain in Turkey and who will travel to the EU? Bozkir's words raise certain concerns that criteria defining their value will be applied to people which does not exactly comply with the principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Even more worrying is the question as to how the illegals who have made it to Europe will be re-sent to Turkey. Will this be achieved by use of force, should they resist, even though the UN Convention on Refugees forbids forced mass deportation? And, at the end of the day, why are we talking just about Syrian refugees when people from Iraq, Libya and Sudan are also fleeing from war? Just as the line between a refugee from a war zone and an economic migrant may be fairly fine, because there is no particular difference about dying from a bomb or from hunger.

Moreover, Turkey, the EU and the US, by all accounts, will be hoping that Syrian citizens will give up leaving their country altogether. It is a question of creating "enhanced safe zones" in Syria for the civilian population, which was raised at the EU-Turkey negotiations. This question will be taken forward during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to the US from 29 March to 2 April. Reports say that Ankara and Washington will discuss questions of a settlement to the Syrian crisis, and also the creation of a safe zone in northern Syria between the cities of Aleppo, Idlib and the Turkish border for Syrian refugees. Earlier, Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu urged the UN to take a similar decision. These "safe zones" are more likely to help Turkey solve its important Kurdish question, because this virtually means the emergence of a buffer zone on the Syrian-Turkish border from the Syrian side and under Turkish control. Besides, "safe zones" will hardly come about without introducing no-fly zones and, most likely, involving the US. In that case, in a situation where talk about the so-called federalization of Syria (i.e. essentially, its division into two parts) is becoming more and more frequent and loud, the question of the Syrian refugees is receding ever further away from purely humanitarian significance, and it is geopolitics that will decide where to put the comma in the phrase "Expelling impossible, let them stay".