LATIN AMERICAN EXAM

Latin America is once again the centre of attention of the world community. Very significant events are occurring in a number of countries in this region, which has traditionally been a venue for an oftentimes uncompromising confrontation between leftist radicalism and right-wing oligarchy. It seems that we may be talking about one more political and ideological lurch, this time towards neoliberalism, supporters of which Latin American socialists accuse of serving the interests of US-led global capital.

Echo of corruption or mockery of the people's choice?

A serious crisis has engulfed the largest country in Latin America - Brazil, which has been led by left-wing forces since the beginning of the century. Back on 12 May, Brazil's Senate voted to impeach President Dilma Rousseff - the first woman to lead that country. She was nominated by the Workers' Party (WP), and so was her predecessor, Luiz da Silva. Rousseff got it primarily for the fact that she decided to put da Silva, who was accused of corruption, in the government. Accusations are also levelled against her in connection with a corruption scandal, which has been going on for three years now and involves the Brazilian energy company Petrobras, which Rousseff headed in 2003-10. According to the investigation, the company took kickbacks for construction contracts and used part of the illegally obtained money to finance the ruling party. In addition, Dilma Rousseff is accused of using the funds of state-owned banks to reduce the budget deficit in 2014 allegedly to ensure her victory in the presidential election.

Under the Brazilian constitution, Michel Temer - vice-president of the country since 2010 - has become acting head of state for 180 days. Within a six-month period, Dilma Rousseff's case will be considered by a court that will take a final decision on her fate. However, there is reason to believe that the impeachment came as a result of behind-the-scenes manoeuvres of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (BDMP), one of the leaders of which is Michel Temer, who condemned Rousseff for her neglect of the support his party gave to the government led by the WP.

Another active person in the BDMP, who became famous for criticizing Rousseff, is Eduardo Cunha. Until recently, he had held the position of Speaker of the lower house of parliament. However, he lost his post after it became known that he had 40m dollars amassed illegally in his accounts in Switzerland. This and also the fact that proceedings were launched against Michel Temer, Senate Speaker Renan Calheiros and many members of the National Congress of Brazil strongly suggest that corruption is the bane of Brazil, its development, stability and sovereignty.

Meanwhile, Michel Temer has declared that his government aims to revive unity in the country and achieve national salvation by restoring economic growth. But is unity possible amid a dramatic aggravation of social contradictions? When handing over to Temer, Dilma Rousseff warned of the danger of curbing the results of social programmes implemented by the WP in the last 13 years, and warned about mass protests. In this regard, it should be recognized that over the years of its rule the Workers' Party did achieve considerable success in the social field. According to official statistics, about 36m people were led out of extreme poverty and 2.6m received government-subsidized housing. However, the economic crisis - caused largely by the inability of China, which is experiencing a slowdown, to maintain a high level of imports of Brazilian agricultural and metal industry output - has led the Brazilian economy to face serious challenges. Dilma Rousseff prioritized preservation of the scale of social programmes, but her policies resulted in a budget deficit and inflation. And now, the acting president, Michel Temer, has come to face an incredibly difficult choice: balancing the budget is only possible if social programmes are curbed or taxes are temporarily raised. Both options will hit the interests of the poor and the middle class. However, Temer, who is aware that a deterioration in the living conditions of the population will inevitably lead to large-scale protests, which the Workers' Party and its supporters warn about, may decide to take unpopular measures. The reason is simple: according to opinion polls, the acting Brazilian president enjoys the support of only 1 to 2 per cent of the population, which means that, as the saying goes, he has nothing to lose. Especially as Temer does not hide that he has no intention of running for president in 2018. At the same time, experiments with curbing social spending may have important consequences for the BDMP that he leads: if the reforms proposed by Temer, which aim to prevent the fall of economic growth in Brazil, are successful, this party's aspirations to become the ruling power will find their due justification.

However, when talking about the domestic Brazilian crisis, one should take into account its impact on the situation in Latin America as a whole. Experts do not rule the completion of the 2000's "left turn" in a number of countries in the region, particularly in Venezuela, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Ecuador, and the strengthening of the positions of the centre-right camp. This circumstance may affect the foreign policy of the aforesaid countries. In Brazil, indicative is the arrival of Jose Serra to the post of foreign minister. Serra is already speaking through the press about "new Brazilian foreign policy". Behind the abstract phrase that diplomacy will now serve "Brazil as a whole, and not the benefits or ideological preferences of a particular political party and its allies abroad", one can second-guess an expected change in the foreign policy priorities of the largest Latin American country. Under presidents da Silva and Rousseff, Brazil focused on special relationships with the so-called "Bolivarian" countries (Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua), strengthening of the "South American Common Market" (MERCOSUR), and developing the BRICS cooperation format, which unites the largest non-Western powers of the world - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

The reaction to the US statement that the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff is not a coup can be considered an indicator of a new priority in Brazil's policy under acting President Temer and Foreign Minister Serra. "The US position is correct," Jose Serra said succinctly.

Noteworthy is the role that Brazil's new foreign minister intends to give in his policy to Argentina, where the centre-right Mauricio Macri replaced the leftist government of President Cristina Kirchner six months ago. Jose Serra, in particular, invites Buenos Aires to "step up free trade" on the basis of bilateral agreements and not only within the framework of MERCOSUR. From this it follows that the new Brazilian leaders are not interested much in preserving the "South American Common Market" as a regional collective tool in international negotiations. But the main thing is that Serra openly made it clear that he stands for "expansion of exchange with traditional partners", by which he means the United States, Europe and Japan. This approach caused a negative reaction from Rousseff, who was removed from power. She recalled that "our policy was one that attached significance to Latin America, Africa, and BRICS, and this eventually cemented respect for Brazil".

Meanwhile, the developments in Brazil may have an impact on the further fate of other leftist Latin American governments. Thus, "in the cross-hairs" is Venezuela, whose president, Nicolas Maduro, has said that the impeachment procedure in Brazil against Dilma Rousseff was a US-orchestrated "mockery of the people's choice". Moreover, he expressed fears that his country - Venezuela - would be the "next victim".

Maduro to repulse?

"The USA seeks to prevent progressive governments, elected democratically for the benefit of the fundamental rights of the people, from staying in power in Latin America," says the successor to the unforgettable Hugo Chavez. In order to avoid a coup in Venezuela, on 13 May he extended the state of emergency in his country for another 60 days and introduced special measures that gave the head of state additional powers in order to prevent a coup and economic chaos, stabilize the social situation in the country and "repel all foreign and domestic threats".

However, the course of events shows that it will not be easy for the Maduro government to achieve the goals set. The economic situation in Venezuela, which is the largest exporter of oil in South America, dramatically worsened after global oil prices fell. The decrease in government revenue caused a greater shortage of goods and higher inflation (on 24 May, prices of corn flour - the basis of local cuisine - went up 900 per cent in Venezuela). In addition, the foundation of political order in Venezuela is rocked by disagreements - which started after the opposition won the parliamentary election - between the executive and legislative branches of the government. MPs accuse Maduro of maintaining "totalitarian tendencies" and seeking to establish a dictatorship. But social support for the opposition comes not so much from political opposition to President Maduro as from the shortage of food and water which provokes real riots. Media report mass looting in shops in Venezuela, during which food and household items are swept off the shelves.

Will President Maduro be able to prevent a possible collapse of the Venezuelan economy that would certainly have an impact on his political fate (the opposition has collected 2m signatures in support of an urgent referendum on confidence in the president)? At the moment there can only be seen an attempt by the authorities to mobilize the population under the banner of "resistance to global imperialism, which undermines Venezuela's independence". Maduro even held large-scale exercises of the Armed Forces, which involved aircraft, armoured vehicles, naval forces and more than 500,000 people. The declared goal of the exercise was to test the readiness of the Venezuelan army to repel foreign threats. After the manoeuvres ended, Maduro said that Venezuela "will never again be enslaved or colonized by anyone". However, it is clear that it will not be possible to save the situation in Venezuela without real crisis measures in the economy and without meeting people's vital needs.

The convulsions in Brazil and Venezuela suggest that left-wing governments in a number of Latin American countries have proven to be unprepared for, first of all, the serious economic challenges that their countries have come to face. But will these crises lead to a reformatting of the political landscape of the region from left to right? One thing is clear - the left and right-wing forces in Latin America are preparing for fresh political battles. Indicative proof of this is a meeting in Havana between Cuban revolution leader, Fidel Castro, and Bolivian President Evo Morales, who is another representative of "leftist Latin America". The legendary commander discussed with the first representative of the indigenous population of America on the post of leader of Bolivia the weakening of the positions of the Latin American leftists caused by US "imperialist efforts". This confirms the invariability of the trend in Latin American geopolitics that traditionally develops within the framework of confrontation between US hegemony and anti-US socialism.