ISLAMIC STATE IN THE GRIP OF COALITIONS

The situation around the so-called "Islamic State" (IS) is undergoing some changes. The terrorist organization, which controls parts of Iraq and Syria, is losing ground under pressure from two coalitions led by the United States and Russia. The latter, in turn, are becoming more and more bogged down in disputes over the future of the war-torn Arab states and the entire Middle East region.

Mosul after Fallujah?

Baghdad has announced that the Iraqi army has retaken control over the city of Fallujah, 50 kilometres west of the capital. Iraqi Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi said that the security forces were in control of almost the entire city, except for small pockets. The command of the Iraqi army announced the liberation of the mayor's office and the entire government quarter of the city.

Fallujah is known as a "city of mosques", as there are more than 200 Muslim temples here. Meanwhile, the city is of very important strategic significance: it is crossed by a highway from Baghdad to Syria and Jordan. Back in 2013, Fallujah became a centre of the Sunni protest movement against the former prime minister of Iraq, Nuri al-Maliki. And in 2014 the city was occupied by the notorious IS and was under the control of terrorists longer than any other location in Iraq.

According to the Pentagon, the Iraqi armed forces and militia managed to free only a third of Fallujah from the IS. However, the United States conclude that the IS has lost in Iraq 45 per cent of the territory it controlled at the height of its expansion.

The liberation of Fallujah is of great importance to ensure the security of Baghdad. After all, Fallujah is regarded as the "factory" of car bombs that explode in the Iraqi capital almost every day.

The strategic role of Fallujah on the front of the war on the Islamic State was demonstrated by a closed meeting of the UN Security Council on the situation in the city liberated from terrorists. The Security Council welcomed the advance of the Iraqi army and the liberation of territories captured by the IS. At the same time, the French diplomat Fran?ois Delattre, who is currently presiding over the Security Council, expressed concern about the humanitarian situation in Fallujah. According to the UN, the fighting forced tens of thousands of people to leave their homes. Delattre called on all parties to the conflict without exception to respect international humanitarian law and facilitate assistance to the population.

It is obvious that support from various external centres played a role in the success of the Iraqi army. First of all, it is Washington which maintains its influence on Baghdad even after the withdrawal of the main contingent of US troops from that country. In addition, the development of close military and political cooperation between Baghdad and Iran, which has become one of the closest allies of the new Iraqi government in recent years, has an impact too. This was largely furthered by the strengthening of the positions of Shiite politicians in the leadership of post-Saddam Iraq.

Apparently, after the supposed final liberation of Fallujah, the Iraqi army will launch a large-scale operation to retake control of Mosul captured by the IS in June 2014. This city is a symbol of the terrorists' recent triumphant advance. It is no accident that IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed a caliphate in the occupied territories and declared himself a caliph in one of the mosques of Mosul.

Official representatives of the Iraqi command reported that on 18 June the elite units of special forces and two army divisions began to move from the town of Baiji, located 200 kilometres north of Baghdad, towards Mosul. According to a report by generals, the military launched an offensive on al-Qajar - a strategically important town in the vicinity of Mosul. The army expects to use an air base located in Al-Qajar for a further offensive on Mosul.

In any case, the Iraqi leadership is aware of the complexity of the forthcoming battle for Mosul, for which the IS will fight, as they say, to the last drop of blood. The representative of the Baghdad government, Ahmad Jamal, said that "at the moment it is rather difficult to identify the exact timing of the liberation of Mosul. We are talking about a city with a large population. However, I hope that we will be able to oust the terrorists before the end of the year."

In any case, it is clear that the positions of the IS in Iraq are failing. To a large extent this is due to the fact that terrorists are coming under strong blows from another strategic direction - the battlefields of the Syria war.

The battle for Raqqa

A real battle for Raqqa, which the IS has declared its capital, is getting under way in Syria. This city is the centre of Raqqa Province, which has the most fertile agricultural land in the country. In addition, there is an air base and the largest oil wells in the territory of Raqqa.

In early June, the Syrian military supported by Russian aircraft crossed the border of Raqqa Province from the west and southwest for the first time since 2014. At the same time, Kurdish militia troops and Arab Syrian opposition groups, supported by pro-American coalition forces, launched an offensive on Raqqa from the north.

An important feature of the battle for Raqqa is the advance of units of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PDS) supported by the US, Britain and their allies on the strategically important city of Manbij, which is situated on the route between the Turkish border and Raqqa. The Damascus government, meanwhile, fears that if Raqqa is liberated by Kurds, the disintegration of the country will become inevitable, because under the patronage of the United States the PDS is seeking autonomy for predominantly Kurdish-populated areas in northern Iraq. The validity of such concerns is proved by reports about the Americans creating a military base in the Kurdish cantons of Syria.

Obviously, plans for the creation of Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria are opposed not only by Turkey, which is well known to the world public for its strong resistance to all manifestations of Kurdish separatism and terrorism. Such a perspective is not endorsed by allies of Damascus - Iran and Russia. At a conference of the defence ministers of Russia, Iran and Syria in Tehran, it was stated that the Syrian political system can and should be reformed, but only after the government of Bashar al-Assad suppresses hotbeds of terrorism and puts an end to the "war of all against all" in the northern regions. In essence, this means that Moscow and Tehran once again expressed support for the territorial integrity of Syria. Meanwhile, many experts suspect the pro-American coalition of making efforts to split Syria in the political future of which they see no place for the current president Bashar al-Assad.

Thus the fate of the latter remains a bone of contention in the US and Russian approaches to the Syrian settlement. A recent statement by US Secretary of State John Kerry is notable: "Russia should understand that there is a limit to our patience, and in fact, on the issue of holding Assad to account, our cup of patience is full."

What can one say about the prospect of Assad's army liberating Raqqa, to which the US administration does not hide its opposition? Indeed, in this case, the Assad government's positions will be greatly enhanced, which does not meet the interests of the US and its local allies - the Kurdish militia and the moderate Syrian opposition. Therefore, the question of the possible liberation of Raqqa from terrorists is of vital importance for Syrian geopolitics. Which of the influential external centres - Russia, which supports Assad's government, or the United States, which patronizes the Syrian opposition, will strengthen their hold not only in Syria but also in the entire Middle East will depend on its outcome.

What is the IS preparing for?

Meanwhile, the fact remains - the "Islamic State" is gradually losing ground, and during the entire period of more or less effective counteraction by the international community, the prospect of the collapse of this terrorist entity is looming for the first time. This raises the question of what might happen to the IS if the anti-terrorist coalition (whether pro-American or pro-Russian) manages to oust them from the occupied territories. Of course, there is a danger that many terrorists will flee and find refuge somewhere in Turkey or Europe under the guise of migrants. We do not even want to think what can happen to them after they receive orders for terrorist attacks from God know what terrorist centre. However, the reality is that such a probability should not be discounted.

It is worth mentioning an audio statement by one of IS leaders Abu Muhammad al-Adnani released in late May. Speaking on what will happen to the IS if it loses "cities and territories", al-Adnani said: "If this happens, we can always go back to the beginning, when we were in the desert without cities and territory." Finally, he promised that "after recovering in the desert", the IS may "return".

Shortly after al-Adnani's statement, one of IS publications published an article in which the keynote was the idea that even if the cities and territory of the caliphate are lost, "Islamic State" will still survive.

These conclusions clearly show that IS terrorists really feel besieged and do not exclude their defeat. But they do not think that this defeat can be devastating. Is it because that the mighty part of civilized mankind is preoccupied with the implementation of selfish geopolitical and economic interests rather than an uncompromising and consistent fight against terrorism which represents a threat to all countries and peoples without exception?