EASTERN ALLIANCE

The leaders of member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization marked the 15th anniversary of its establishment in Tashkent on 23-24 June. In fact, the history of its establishment began in 1996, after former USSR countries - Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - resolved their border disputes with China. The organization has existed in its present form since 2001, when Uzbekistan joined the "Shanghai Five".

There was a moratorium for a long time on the admission of new members to the SCO. The explanation provided was that there was a need to improve the legal framework and develop mechanisms to expand the organization. In actual fact, it may have been due to the fact that the member states were unable to identify priorities for the development of the organization and a unified strategy for the expansion of the SCO.

Russia and China, which set the tone in the "Shanghai Six", have until recently had different visions of the organization's goals. The Russian Federation insisted that the emphasis should be on resolving political issues, security problems and drug trafficking. The People's Republic of China, however, promoted its economic interests in the region. As a result, the organization was increasingly resembling a discussion club whose decisions were not binding.

Multilateral economic integration developed extremely slowly. Major joint projects existed mostly on paper, while the implementation of "pilot" projects was stuck. The main reason, according to experts, was the lack of a mechanism to finance them. 

Relations at the level of bilateral cooperation were dominant among the SCO members. It should be noted that this situation has not been changed fundamentally yet. It is symbolic that, this time round too, one day before the summit, the leaders of Uzbekistan and China marked the completion of one more bilateral project. Islom Karimov and Xi Jinping took part in an online ceremony to launch a 19-kilometre railway tunnel in eastern Uzbekistan, the largest facility of its kind in Central Asia. It cost 455m dollars.

Yet, convergence of Russia and China's positions in the vision of the development priorities of the SCO took shape in 2014-15. During those years, Russia declared an eastward turn in its foreign policy, which was the result of its sour relations with the United States and its allies, and China made up its mind regarding its new idea of the Silk Road Economic Belt. US actions to create a free trade zone in the Pacific and Transatlantic regions were also an important impetus towards strengthening the SCO.

That is when the process began of the SCO growing from a narrowly regional organization into a global one. It even began to be regarded as a centre of power, alternative to the Western one, in international relations. An important step towards this was the launch last year of the process of Pakistan and India joining the SCO. The simultaneous admission of the two countries, which are in conflict, can be easily explained - the former is a close partner of China and the latter is a close partner of Russia. Some kind of a parity in terms of influence on the organization is maintained.

Certainly, there are fears that the admission of major regional players such as Delhi and Islamabad may lead to an imbalance within the SCO and an internal split into groups by geopolitical interests, which will reduce the efficiency of the operation of the organization.

However, it should be taken into account that there are still serious frictions and unresolved problems in the relationships between some of the Central Asian members of the SCO. But this does not stop them from actively cooperating. However, the very fact of India and Pakistan's membership of the SCO and their activities within the organization is a very positive thing, including for their bilateral relations.

The aggregate number of the population of the SCO in 2017, when the process of admission of the new members ends, will exceed 3bn. This is almost half the world's population. The organization will include four nuclear powers and its aggregate GDP will almost double, rising to 20 trillion dollars, which is more than 19 per cent of global GDP.

Certainly, the expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization strengthens its international prestige, demonstrates its strategic viability, and enables it to reach a new geopolitical height. As a consequence, contacts are expanding with the United Nations, ASEAN, and forms of cooperation with BRICS are discussed.

Apparently, Iran will be the next candidate to receive SCO member status. Both Russia, which has close economic ties with it, and China, which is increasingly more using this country in its infrastructure projects, are interested in it being admitted. After economic sanctions against Iran were lifted, there are no longer obstacles to its admission. However, at the summit in Tashkent, Russia's proposal to start a procedure to this end failed to receive China's backing. Foreign Minister Wang Yi explained that, before moving on, Beijing wanted to focus on India and Pakistan's admission to the SCO.

At the moment, Iran is an observer state in the organization, along with India, Pakistan, Belarus, Mongolia and Afghanistan. This, so to speak, is level two of participation in the SCO. It entitles the heads of these states to participate in expanded summits.

There is also level three - "partner in dialogue". In March this year, Azerbaijan was admitted to the SCO as a "partner" (Turkey, Cambodia, Nepal, Armenia and Sri Lanka have the same status). A memorandum to this effect was signed in Beijing by SCO Secretary-General Rashid Alimov, and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov.

On 2 June, when endorsing this memorandum, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stressed that "Azerbaijan considers obtaining the status of partner in dialogue in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a first step towards full integration into the SCO".

Azerbaijan expressed interest in joining the organization back in 2012. In those years, the SCO's priorities were tackling security problems and fighting international terrorism. At present, increased attention is paid to stepping up cooperation in the commercial, production, financial, investment and agricultural areas. One of the priorities for the organization is the implementation of joint infrastructure projects and establishment of international transport corridors that link Asia and Europe.

At the latest meeting in Tashkent, heads of state called for "further expansion of mutually beneficial cooperation with the observer states and partners in dialogue in order to increase the potential of joint activities within the framework of the SCO".

The final document emphasizes the need to "pay special attention to the development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation in culture, health, science and technology, education, environmental protection, sports, tourism, and research and preservation of the cultural and natural heritage of the SCO region, including along the 'Great Silk Road'".

There are plans to gradually (by 2020) form within the organization a full integration space that implies free movement of goods, services, capital and technology. For the future, there are plans to establish a SCO free trade zone. One more important activity is to encourage and support innovation projects that the national economies of the participating countries are interested in.

Thus, the attractiveness of SCO membership for Azerbaijan has increased many times over.

In addition to coordinating actions in the field of security and fight against international terrorism, Azerbaijan is entitled to an even greater involvement in different transnational energy and transport projects, which, no doubt, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, will initiate. They will constitute a considerable addition to the already operating and planned projects in Azerbaijan that link East and West, North and South.