TALKS ON REAL ISSUES

On 20 June a meeting was held in the Oval Room of the Constantine Palace in St Petersburg between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia - Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan - with the purpose of resolving the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. The talks in this format were initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders first had bilateral meetings. Then the three presidents met one to one for about an hour without aides. Their conversation was continued later at a working breakfast. The final stage of the tripartite dialogue lasted another 40 minutes and was joined by the co-chairs of the Minsk group from Russia, the US and France, as well as a representative from the OSCE secretariat.

"The meeting was held in a constructive atmosphere. Azerbaijan takes a favourable view of the talks in St Petersburg," Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said in an interview to APA. Armenia's Foreign Minister, Eduard Nalbandyan, also viewed the meeting favourably. According to RIA Novosti, he said "it was fairly useful and with some caution I can say it was held in a constructive atmosphere", adding that "agreement was reached to continue the meetings not only at the level of presidents, but also foreign ministers. This whole process will be held in the format of the co-chairmen of the OSCE's Minsk Group". According to their Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, the conversation was open and based on trust.

After the meeting, a joint statement was adopted, which, according to the Kremlin's press service, says that "the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia reiterated the agreements reached at the last Armenia-Azerbaijan summit in Vienna on 16 May this year, which were aimed at stabilizing the situation in the conflict area and creating an atmosphere conducive to moving the peace process forward. With this objective, they agreed, among other things, to increase the number of international observers in the conflict area. They expressed satisfaction with the fact that recently the ceasefire regime at the troop line has been upheld. There took place a substantial exchange of opinions on the essential aspects of a settlement. The heads of state acknowledged that mutual understanding had been reached on a number of issues, the solution of which would enable conditions to be created towards progress in a Nagornyy Karabakh settlement. The presidents noted the important significance of their regular contacts on the problems of Nagornyy Karabakh and agreed to continue them in this format as an addition to the work of the co-chairmen of the OSCE's Minsk Group, who were invited to the concluding stage of the meeting in St. Petersburg".

As may be inferred from the text of the statement quoted above, the main outcome of the meeting was that it kick-starts the round of negotiations, not on the secondary questions recently put forward by the Armenians (investigating incidents, confidence-building measures, etc) but really important issues. One may speak about a beginning of those same meaningful talks which Azerbaijan has been demanding for so long. The dialogue will take place with the participation of the co-chairmen of the OSCE's Minsk Group, but under the aegis of Russia.

One has to be puzzled by the statement of the co-chairs of the Minsk Group, issued by the OSCE's press service on 24 June, which says: "We urge Azerbaijan and Armenia to remove all the remaining obstacles to extend the mission of the personal representative of the OSCE's chairman, Andrzej Kasprzyk." The document also calls for progress in the negotiations and the proposals to introduce a mechanism of OSCE investigations, in which it stresses the need to respect the agreements reflected in the accords of 16 May in Vienna and 20 June in St Petersburg. However, the statement of the presidents distributed in St Petersburg says nothing about an investigation of incidents. One forms the impression that the co-chairmen of the OSCE's Minsk Group want to couple the status of "external arbiter and mentor" with their customary and comfortable "diplomatic tourism".

At St Petersburg, Azerbaijan confirmed its consent to increasing the number of observers of Kasprzyk's mission, which was given during the previous meeting in Vienna. It currently consists of six people. But even if the strength of this mission is doubled or trebled, maintaining stability on the troop line depends more on the goodwill of the parties in the conflict than on the number of monitors. One need not go far for an example. In the south-east of Ukraine almost a thousand international observers are deployed and yet the ceasefire regime is being systematically violated there, and what's more, with the use of artillery and rocket launchers. So it doesn't pay to rely too much on the mechanisms of international monitoring. Far better to set one's sights on real advancement of the process of a peaceful settlement.

When holding forth on the subject of Karabakh, the Armenians and doubly so foreign politicians, diplomats and analysts should never forget that the territory along both sides of the present contact line in Karabakh lawfully belongs to Azerbaijan, and any actions (monitoring or investigation of incidents) are illegal and impossible without our consent. The mere wish of the Armenians and their patrons to do so is completely insufficient to achieve this. One should also recall the fact that a ceasefire is not an end in itself, but a condition for substantial and meaningful talks on a settlement to the conflict. In the absence of talks or an imitation of them an erosion of the ceasefire regime and a resumption of the armed confrontation is an undesirable but inevitable consequence.

The world has long since realized that the current status quo in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh cannot be prolonged indefinitely. The armed clashes in April - the "four-day war" - reaffirmed the instability of the ceasefire when the talks on a peace settlement are deadlocked. It is clear that the threat to peace and stability in the region is not because of the uncertainty of the status of Nagornyy Karabakh, but the continuing illegal occupation by the Armenian forces of Azerbaijani territories, despite numerous resolutions of the UN Security Council and General Assembly and other international organizations. It is precisely this question that must be resolved as a matter of priority. Azerbaijan has not shrunk from its right in full accordance with the UN Charter to take military measures to liberate its occupied territories from Armenia's armed forces. This is evidenced by its continuing purchases of modern types of weapons and the exercises carried out from 19 to 24 June, which have become traditional in the run-up to National Army Day. Some 25,000 servicemen, over 300 tanks and armoured vehicles, about 100 missile launchers and artillery pieces, up to 40 combat aircraft and 30 air-defence systems took part in the exercises.

Azerbaijan's territorial integrity cannot be the subject of negotiations, but a change in the present status quo must be a priority. "The conflict is lingering, as Russia and the other co-chairmen of the OSCE's Minsk Group have said, the status quo is unacceptable, and we fully support this statement," President Ilham Aliyev said at his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, "but in order to change the status quo, there is a need to start the de-occupation of Azerbaijan's territory, which has been occupied for over 20 years." At the same time, he expressed gratitude for the initiative of the tripartite meeting of the presidents of the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the constructive role that Russia is playing in a Nagornyy Karabakh settlement.

Baku's commitment to businesslike and meaningful talks aimed at moving forward the process of a peace settlement has been reaffirmed at all levels. At this stage it is difficult to say anything specific about the contours of the steps on the path towards a peace settlement tentatively agreed at St Petersburg. After all, the meetings of the presidents were held mainly in a narrow format, without any aides participating. However, it is clear that they will continue to be based on the familiar Madrid principles, the main elements of which the sides have long since agreed on, whereas differences are mainly concerned with specific timeframes and mechanisms for their implementation. But we should not dwell on general principles, we should forge ahead towards realistic solutions, and things are clearly moving in this direction. In an interview for Voice of America, James Warlick, the US' co-chairman of the Minsk Group, said, among other things: "I have to say that the presidents are working on very serious working proposals. Of course, there are differences in these proposals. Nobody expected complete agreement, but both sides, or to be more precise, both presidents agreed to continue working on these proposals."

In order to achieve success in the process of a peaceful settlement to the conflict, it is important that the mediators and international organizations continue to focus their attention on the problem and increase diplomatic efforts. And this seems to be happening. For example, following the meeting of the presidents in St Petersburg, the incumbent chairman of the OSCE, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, received the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group and discussed with them the progress being made in a settlement to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh.

Meanwhile, Serzh Sargsyan's administration is taking steps which are not completely understood by people in Armenia or the international community. Radical opponents of President Serzh Sargsyan from among former field commanders have been arrested. Zhirayr Sefilyan was detained as part of a criminal case on the discovery of fire arms and explosives. According to the investigation, he, along with a group of eight people, was charged with planning to seize buildings, including the television tower in Yerevan, by means of an armed attack. President Serzh Sargsyan himself, on returning from St Petersburg, went straight to Nagornyy Karabakh - either to straighten out shortcomings in defence which were discovered during the fighting in April, or to explain to the headstrong field commanders the futility of continuing to hold on to the seized Azerbaijani territories.

It is obvious that Serzh Sargsyan, who has driven himself and his regime into a corner, is desperately trying to manoeuvre, doing everything to put off taking inevitable decisions linked with a withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. The purpose of the arrests of radical opponents of a compromised peace is, on the one hand, to demonstrate to Russia and other powers the terrorist risks involved in agreeing to de-occupation. But on the other hand, Sargsyan needs to pre-emptively neutralize the half-crazy radicals capable of terror and an armed putsch so that the ruling Armenian elite can recede from its annexationist requirements. However, these are problems for the ruling Armenian elite itself and up to them to resolve. Neither Azerbaijan, nor the world at large will make excuses with references to the threats and opposition of former and existing radical field commanders.

On 25 June, President Ilham Aliyev, speaking at a ceremony to open a building for servicemen, gave a positive assessment of the results of the St Petersburg meeting: "I hope the process will be continued at a rapid pace. We are again entering these negotiations without accepting any conditions. The negotiations must be meaningful and substantive, not just to create a semblance of talks. After the meeting a joint statement was adopted, which was also made public. Everything, including ways to settle the question, is set out in the declaration." President Aliyev also brought clarity to the question of extending the numbers of personnel in the office of the personal representative of the chairman of the OSCE: "…The number is not indicated there, but I can say that whereas there may be six people today, this number could be increased to a maximum of twice or two-and-a-half times more. In other words, we are not talking about a large mission here. If you bear in mind that the contact line is measured in tens of kilometres, there is no point in looking for any other meaning here. The mandate is also in place - there are no changes to it. It's simply that instead of six there will be 12, 13 or 14 employees, that's all." There is no mechanism for an investigation of incidents, which the Armenian side is insisting upon, and no-one is specifically saying what it will represent. "If this implies a 'freezing' of the conflict and the adoption of any additional measures along the contact line, then Azerbaijan, of course, will not agree to that. This would only be possible if there continue to be positive dynamics in the negotiations process, if we see tangible results and know the timetable for the liberation of our territories - in that case, various mechanisms can be drawn up, and only then can this question be considered," Ilham Aliyev said. According to him, the statement adopted after the meeting in St Petersburg pointed out that the situation has stabilized on the contact line and the ceasefire regime has been restored, which may be regarded as a positive development. Consequently, there is no need to adopt a mechanism of investigation of incidents, and this condition of the Armenians was not adopted.

At the conclusion of his speech about the meeting in St Petersburg, President Ilham Aliyev stressed: "Once again I would like to point out that we must have negotiations on the subject matter. There must be an end to Armenia's expansionist policy. We must know when the process of the liberation of our territories is to start. There is no doubt this process will happen. The Azerbaijani side, and I in particular, have pointed out that we can only resolve this conflict on a step-by-step basis. Because no other way is possible. Armenia is constantly trying to complicate the situation, violating the negotiations process and the option of a phased settlement. But, in our opinion, this is the most appropriate way. It could lead to a speedy solution to the question. Azerbaijan's principled position on this question is well known. This position has not changed and will not change. The question must be resolved within the context of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Nagornyy Karabakh will never get independence and a second Armenian state will never be created on Azerbaijan's historic lands."

There is nothing to add to President Ilham Aliyev's words, because every Azerbaijani is prepared to put his signature to them. The government, the army and the people are united on this question.