MUTINY ABOARD

Yet another domestic political sensation stirs up Armenia. This time, since the second half of June, the attention of the local audience has been focused on the “Case of Jirair Sefilian”, one of the leaders of the radical opposition group “The Founding Parliament” and the ex-commander of the Shusha Special Battalion, who was arrested in late June on a very serious charge - planning of an armed uprising.

The official sources report that the incident was caused by a routine traffic accident registered on May 20 in Yerevan, when police officers found two Kalashnikov assault rifles and 120 cartridges in one of the cars involved. Yet a real bombshell was the arrest of Sefilian on June 20 who was named a person directly related with the identified armory, according to the Armenian Investigation Committee. However, the investigation now claims that Jirair Sefilian and his accomplices have been planning no less than an armed seizure of buildings, the means of transportation and communication, including the Yerevan TV tower. “The criminal case was initiated according to Part 2 of Article 235 of the Armenian Criminal Code: illegal acquisition, sale, storage, transportation or carrying of weapons, ammunition, explosives or explosive devices by a group of persons based on previous concert”, reports the Investigation Committee of Armenia. “Currently, the charges are raised against eight suspects, six of whom are taken into custody while a wanted notice is issued for the other one.” One of the detainees is Tatu Manukian, the brother of Pavel Manukian who is a member of the “Association of soldiers of the Shusha Special Battalion”. During a search in his house, some more cartridges were found. The searches are also ongoing at homes of activists of the Front of National Salvation “New Armenia” and “The Founding Parliament”.

Jirair Sefilian's lawyers released statements that are quite predictable in such a case. According to them, the charges against the leader of “The Founding Parliament” is a political conspiracy of the authorities provoked by Sefilian’s earlier statements about the real losses of Armenia during the April shoot-out, etc. The supporters of Jirair Sefilian, who perhaps have not been “browbeaten” yet by the Yerevan investigative bodies, have also made statements, which one would call both expected and sensational. The chairman of “The Founding Parliament” Garegin Chugaszian told the reporters: “You heard what Serzh Sargsyan said, that he was ready to recede from five regions, didn’t you? As soon as he tries to realize this, I promise you an armed rebellion.” It is worth noting that Serzh Sargsyan in his interview with Bloomberg assured that he was allegedly ready to withdraw the troops from the occupied regions of Azerbaijan back in 2011.

Many experts assessed Chugaszian’s statement as yet another confirmation that the arrest of Jirair Sefilian, infamous for his radical beliefs, was associated with a probable “political breakthrough” in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

And this breakthrough is actually predicted by many. In particular, the April shoot-out wiped off all doubts about further delays in the negotiations that proved to be too dangerous if the real diplomacy is replaced with imitation of talks. The Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was straight forward in his following statement: “If someone thinks that we will continue meaningless negotiations in the next 20 years, he is mistaken. We do not intend to keep meaningless negotiations and will not keep talking for the sake of imitation. It is time to start meaningful and substantive talks, immediately and unconditionally. This will move us closer to a peaceful resolution of the issue.” As was repeatedly underlined by both the intermediaries and the representatives of Azerbaijan, a real settlement is impossible under the current status quo, namely without the withdrawal of occupation troops. There is a number of factors that push Armenia toward making such a difficult decision being the state of its economy and the military realities exposed after the April fights to name a few. By the way, as was also mentioned by the President Aliyev, it was Armenia that provoked these fights just before Yerevan fell under the growing pressure of the international community. Logically, in advance of taking this decisive step, Serzh Sargsyan would rather “clean up” the political landscape and remove the most radical opponents from his immediate proximity, considering that the modern Armenian history has an evidence of a power grab triggered by radical “Karabakh” slogans: the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosian was urged to relinquish his position in 1998. Incidentally, Serzh Sargsyan was the Minister of Defense at that time and actively involved in the displacement of the head of state who discredited himself back in November 1997 by appealing to his compatriots to seek for a compromise with Azerbaijan since the regional situation had been changing not in favor of Armenia.

Nevertheless, unlike Ter-Petrosian, Serzh Sargsyan, one of the culprits of the Khojaly genocide, has not yet made any public and “here and now” call for a compromise. Nor does he discourage the members of his team, including the current Minister of Defense Seyran Ohanyan, from making promises about unacceptability of any “land concessions”.

Meanwhile, the authorities led by Serzh Sargsyan do feel uncertain after the April defeat. The increasing socio-economic problems of Armenia append to gradual erosion of positions held by the ruling team members. Finally, Serzh Sargsyan and the members of his “inner circle” cannot but realize the growth of anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia. This became particularly evident when Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) did not lead to a rapid growth of local economy while the country’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) did not insure from the defeat during the April shoot-out. Incidentally, a campaign for removal of the president from the office does not necessarily mean making real concessions during the Karabakh talks under the “Karabakh” slogans; and the “inner circle” of Mr. Sargsyan is well aware of this. A couple of rumors and leaks would be quite enough.

Yerevan understands that Jirair Sefilian is a professional terrorist with a Middle-Eastern background. He was born in Lebanon where he had his first combat experience. He moved to Armenia in the early nineties when the Middle-Eastern militants were actively “invited” to fight in Karabakh. Today, his “The Founding Parliament”, staffed with other professional terrorists as welcome as Mr Sefilian, is sort of a “combat unit” under the auspices of Yerevan’s radical opposition.

But the most important and dangerous for Armenia is that the power in this country is the only profitable business that matters. The leadership of Serzh Sargsyan marked the beginning of “the era of warlords” who introduced own methods of struggle to the political life, where “infernal machines” and Kalashnikov rifles are considered to be the best tools of trade. The shooting of protesters denouncing the falsified results of presidential elections on March 1, 2008 was only the first episode of this drama. The armed showdown on the streets of Gyumri, which among other persons involved the city mayor, is also worth of thinking. The incident at home of Mr. Sargsyan’s close friend Suren Khachatrian, better known under his nickname “Liska”, is even more noteworthy. On June 1, 2013 a deadly gunfire that took place in his house ended with the former candidate for mayor of Goris Avo Budaghian being killed while his brother Artak Budaghian, and the commander of one of the Karabakh military units were injured. One of Liska’s bodyguards was also a victim of the battle. Under the public pressure, Serzh Sargsyan was forced to relieve Khachatrian of his post of the governor of “Syunik” (Zangezur) but the following year Liska returned to the civil service. All of these facts increase the probability of an armed uprising in Armenia. And this time not only the radical opposition represented by Sefilian may be part of the breakdown.