WHO ATTACKS THE WORLD?

Turkey is going through a difficult phase of its modern history. The last few days have been marked by the horrific terrorist attack at Istanbul airport alongside the progress achieved in Ankara's relations with Russia and Israel, which promises Turkey substantial dividends in the big geopolitical game unfolding in the Middle East and the Eurasian crossroads.

The attack on Istanbul

Turkey is recovering from another shocking terrorist attack. On June 28, three terrorists opened fire from automatic weapons near the Ataturk Airport in Istanbul, and then detonated explosive devices inside the terminal and at the entrance to the building. As a result, 45 people were killed and more than 140 were injured.

The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Prime Minister Binali Yildirim named the terrorist group the Islamic State (IS) as the alleged organizer of the attack. Until now, about 30 individuals have been charged with this criminal case. Meanwhile, the Turkish special services tend to believe that the person who orchestrated the actions of suicide bombers was Ahmed Chatayev also known for his close relations with one of the leaders of Chechen separatists Doku Umarov. Chatayev was granted a refugee status in Austria and could not therefore be extradited to the Russian authorities. According to The Wall Street Journal, Chatayev has been engaged in recruitment to IS since the last year. His team was destroyed during the siege of the Syrian city of Kobani, fighting on the side of the terrorist group that controls some areas in Iraq and Syria. According to the Turkish media, the perpetrators of the recent terrorist act in Istanbul also included the nationals of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Once again, the recent terrorist attack in Turkey confirmed that the country actually lives under wartime conditions. It is confronting against two powerful terrorist organizations - the Islamic State and PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), openly threatening the security, territorial integrity and the very existence of the Turkish Republic. Certainly, the proximate purpose of these attacks was to undermine the stability of the Turkish state, as well as to inhibit the breakthrough of the local economy and the implementation of the foreign policy objectives. It is worth noting that the attacks were committed just at the time when a number of important developments were ongoing in the Turkish diplomacy.

Ankara and Moscow restore the dialogue

Ankara and Moscow had a chance to normalize the dialogue only seven months after the incident with the downed Russian bomber Su-24. In the letter to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, the Turkish President Erdogan apologized for the death of the pilot Oleg Peshkov and expressed his willingness to do all possible to restore traditionally friendly ties with Russia, as well as to work together to respond to crisis situations in the region and fight terrorism. In his letter, he called Russia “a friend and a strategic partner” and said that Ankara “never had the desire or deliberate intention of shooting down the Russian Federation’s plane”.

The apology by the Turkish authorities was one of the Kremlin's conditions to restore relations with Ankara. In response to the destruction of the Russian bomber by the Turkish Air Forces, Moscow imposed a range of sanctions upon the neighboring country effective since the last November, including a ban on the supply of some vegetables and fruits, as well as the curtailment of cooperation in the tourism sector. However, just over a month ago, the Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow is trying to resume relations with Turkey but that the “desires to resume relations need something else to do”. That was a clear message to the possibility of normalization of the Russian-Turkish dialogue.

A telephone conversation between the two leaders has signaled a real chance to overcome the crisis existing in the Russian-Turkish relations. Erdogan and Putin agreed to hold a personal meeting at the earliest opportunity. But the most eloquent result of that conversation was Putin’s instruction that followed on the next day to remove all travel restrictions for Russian tourists on trips to the Turkish resorts.

Yet another impressive evidence of reviving contacts between Ankara and Moscow was the meeting of Turkish and Russian foreign ministers in Sochi during the meeting of the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC Council of Foreign Ministers). Mevlut Cavusoglu and Sergey Lavrov discussed the normalization of bilateral relations and agreed on the rehabilitation of the Russian-Turkish working group on combating terrorism, which actually freezed activities seven months ago.

This indicates that combating terrorism has become one of the key factors that influenced the rollback of the Russian-Turkish crisis. Moscow and Ankara have expressed clearly that the fight against terrorism is their common goal. In this regard, it is also worth noting a message of deep condolences expressed by Putin to Erdogan after the attack of the Istanbul airport. “Both sides emphasized the need to intensify international cooperation in the fight against common terrorist threats”, states the Kremlin.

There is no doubt that the reviving relations between Moscow and Ankara stem from the fact that both countries objectively as allies under the current geopolitical conditions. Therefore, despite of some existing problems in bilateral relations, Russia and Turkey still prefer the dialogue to escalation of tension, understanding that joint decisions and efforts will bring much greater success in the international arena.

Obviously, it is difficult to expect that the Russian-Turkish dialogue will soar back up to the previous level of bilateral cooperation overnight. Nevertheless, a breakthrough in this area is quite possible in the short term, especially in the context of ​​economic cooperation and implementation of joint projects.

After all, the establishment of relations between Russia and Turkey will benefit all of the countries that keep friendly and strategic ties with both states. One of such countries is Azerbaijan - the leading state in the South Caucasus and the region, which owes its security to interacting geopolitical interests between Moscow and Ankara. Over the past half year, Baku has repeatedly expressed interest in rehabilitation of the Russian-Turkish relations. Soon after the publication of Erdogan’s message to Putin, Ankara has expressed gratitude to Azerbaijan for its contribution to the normalization of relations between Turkey and Russia.

Crisis with Tel Aviv is over

Meanwhile, Erdogan's message to Putin coincided with the restoration of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel. Under the agreement, Israel would present apologies to Ankara for the attack of the Mavi Marmara in 2010 and deposit some $21 million as compensation for the families of those who were killed on the ship. In addition, Israel agreed to allow for some relaxation in the closure regime of Gaza in favour of Turkey. In turn, Ankara pledged to waiver all claims to the representatives of Israel’s political and military leadership involved in the military operation against the “Freedom Flotilla” and promote the implementation of Israel’s gas program.

Obviously, the rehabilitation of the Turkish-Israeli strategic partnership plays into the hands of the West, primarily the United States, acting as a key ally of both Tel Aviv and Ankara. In the meantime, it is for the interests of Turkey and Israel to establish the bilateral dialogue.

Assessing the reconciliation agreement signed with Turkey, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly stated that it has a strategic importance to the security and economy of his country. Incidentally, not everyone in Israel has welcomed the apologies that Tel Aviv presented to Ankara. Plus, three members of the government cabinet including the Minister of Defense Avigdor Lieberman opposed the agreement with Turkey. However, the position of those who believe that “anyone who cares about Israel’s welfare must support the agreement with Turkey” still prevailed. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz wrote: “But scrutiny of the deal’s specific provisions, important though they are, is liable to miss the main point: The agreement’s whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The main benefit to Israel stems from rehabilitating the Jerusalem-Ankara relationship and removing the obstacle Erdogan had posed to Israel’s participation in frameworks that require consensus, like NATO”.

Thus, the effective steps that Turkey takes to ensure further development of relations with Russia and Israel may have important consequences in the context of regional security challenges caused by, inter alia, the strengthening terrorist organizations, as well as the growing contradictions between Ankara and the West, as evidenced by the actual collapse of Turkey’s commitment to join the European Union.

In conclusion, it would be appropriate to cite Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s assertion from his message to the Turkish nation on the occasion of Ramadan celebrations. It expresses very accurately the aspirations of Ankara that in the context of recovering dialogue with Russia and Israel the “mutual positive steps taken in recent weeks give us hope for the future”. Erdogan stressed that Turkey “overcomes the crisis invoked by the problems in Syria, terrorism, artificial tension, and restores relations” with other countries. The factors listed by the Turkish leader should certainly help to address a number of threats menacing Ankara's interests both in the foreign policy, and in the context of the security and unity of the Turkish state.