A NONSTOP PROCESS

Since the trilateral meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in St. Petersburg, the international efforts to break the deadlock in the process of Karabakh settlement have rather intensified. The OSCE Minsk Group has enhanced its activities. The Russian president Vladimir Putin had telephone conversations with his American and French counterparts discussing the same issue while the foreign ministers of these countries have consultations continuously. In this regard, the visits of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the current OSCE chairman, the Foreign Minister of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier to Yerevan and Baku were noteworthy.

Considering the positive role of Berlin in dealing with European affairs, as well as in the resolution of various issues and conflicts of international scale, the expectations are rather high. Incidentally, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan have made working trips to Germany in May and June 2016. Therefore, although the attention of Germany and the whole of Europe is focused on the Brexit and the consequences of the referendum where the majority of voters voted for the withdrawal of Britain from the EU, the German Foreign Minister decided not to delay his visit to our region.

Since taking over the chairmanship at the OSCE and being a member of the Minsk Group, Germany has straightly demonstrated its readiness to actively contribute to the promotion of the Karabakh settlement. After the military crisis in April on the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line, Berlin has even tried to assume the diplomatic mediation attempts but was delicately and firmly sidelined by co-chairing countries of the Minsk Group. Let me remind you that during the Vienna Summit organized to facilitate the negotiations between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents with the participation of the foreign ministers of Russia, the US, and France, the organizers invited Federica Mogherini, the current High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, despite the German Minister Steinmeier has previously expressed his willingness to join the team.

Shortly before Steinmeier’s visit to the region, Russia's permanent representative to the OSCE Alexander Lukashevich has stated that Moscow was the key player in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He has also clarified the issue concerning the peacekeepers: “There is a concept of peacekeeping operation in the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict approved back in the 1990s. But it is the final stage of the settlement and the idea is out of agenda since there is no settlement. There is a high level working group within the OSCE Secretariat, which has been adapting a scheme of potential peacekeeping operations under the OSCE leadership. In other words, OSCE has a clearly defined objective but its outcome is reflected only on draft maps regularly introduced to participant states”, added the diplomat. “This group is closely coordinating its efforts with the Office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman Andrzej Kasprzyk, as well as the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group and regularly visits the area. The adaptation process refers to the inspection of the areas and the mapping of possible deployment locations for peacekeeping divisions. The final point is to ensure the agreement of settlement principles, after which the parties will agree on the elements of the peacekeeping operation. However, given the absence of any agreement between the parties on the principles of settlement, this remains a long way off”, concluded Lukashevich.

The statement made by the high-ranked Russian diplomat was a cold shower for Armenia that hoped to advance the implementation of the long-waited “mechanism of investigations” on the contact line under the German chairmanship of the OSCE in order to guarantee the status quo so beneficial for the Armenians. They were also anxious to ensure Steinmeier’s visit to Nagorno-Karabakh, which would greatly help to legitimize the puppet separatist regime followed by its involvement in the negotiation process as a third party. These expectations have not been fulfilled though. The OSCE Chairman Frank-Walter Steinmeier has only had a brief conversation with the self-appointed president of “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic” Bako Sahakian in Yerevan presented to him as the head of the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh, then has met with the representatives of the Azerbaijani community in Baku.

During a joint press conference with Steinmeier, the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov has announced the commencement of substantive negotiations on the Karabakh and that there was “a document being worked on, and if we advanced in this direction, we could achieve peace”. He praised Germany's efforts to assist in achieving progress in the settlement of the conflict, stressing the need to abolish the current status quo through liberating the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.

Germany is the leading European state, and we welcome its desire to advance the process of conflict resolution as the OSCE Chairman. Nonetheless, the main drivers of this process are the member states chairing at the OSCE Minsk Group, namely the United States, France and primarily Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry has already prepared a set of concrete proposals handed over to the parties of the conflict during the recent gathering of the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in St. Petersburg. Based on information published in early July in the Russian newspaper “Izvestia”, these proposals are currently being updated in the light of objections and suggestions made. During his visit to Yerevan to attend the meeting of foreign ministers of the OSCE member-states, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has discussed these proposals with the Armenians. On 11 and 12 July, he had intensive talks with President Ilham Aliyev and the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov in Baku.

Some influential international organizations have also increased attention on the Karabakh conflict. Thus, at the meeting of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly held in early July in Tbilisi, our delegation was able to introduce and amend the following statement into the final text of declaration: “Stressing the continuing need for enhanced efforts to settle protracted conflicts in the OSCE area in a peaceful and negotiated manner, refraining from the threat or use of force, in full respect of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the states involved, and in full compliance with the United Nations Charter and the Helsinki Final Act”. Next, the paragraph 49 of the Tbilisi Declaration reads as follows: “[OSCE PA] calls for stronger political will in addressing the issue of refugees and internally displaced persons as well as greater commitment and swifter implementation of signed agreements, and reaffirms the inalienable right of the populations of the Republic of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine displaced as a result of conflict to return to their homes in safety and with dignity”.

The participants of the NATO summit held on July 8-9 in Warsaw also paid attention to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In his speech, President Ilham Aliyev noted that the “The continued use of force against Azerbaijan by Armenia not only undermines the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan but also represents a grave threat to regional security.” According to the President, for more than twenty years, Armenia refuses to implement the relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council, which demand immediate, full and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijan. On the sidelines of the summit, President Aliyev met with the US Secretary of State John Kerry, the German Foreign Minister and the OSCE Chairman Frank-Walter Steinmeier, as well as with his counterparts from Afghanistan, Poland, and Turkey. He has exchanged views on Karabakh with the French President François Hollande. Despite the efforts of the Armenian side, the principled position of Azerbaijan was recognized by the participants of the Warsaw Summit. The final communique of the event contains statements of support for the territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of the states suffering from aggressive separatism, and calls for a peaceful settlement of the conflicts in the South Caucasus based on principles and norms of the international law, the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act.

In fact, the declarations adopted by OSCE PA and NATO Summit, as well as the unprecedented exchange of views at the level of presidents and foreign ministers of the Minsk Group are important. The objective is to give an impetus to the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations currently moderated by Moscow, which closely coordinates the efforts with other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. According to the French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, France is ready to host the next meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Paris. In turn, the US President Barack Obama expressed his willingness to work with Russia and France in order to achieve a comprehensive solution to the Karabakh conflict. For the last two decades of mediation process, it was impossible to achieve this level of activity, and Moscow is currently advancing realistic proposals that presume a gradual progress towards a comprehensive settlement of the conflict.

“We highly appreciate the role that Russia plays in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict”, said President Aliyev on July 11 at the meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Baku. “This the most dynamic process of negotiations that I can recall”, he added. Expressing his hope for the continuation of positive trends in the course of negotiations, the Azerbaijani leader has noted the apparent interest of Moscow in the speedy resolution of the conflict.

The foreign ministers have definitely strengthened their commitment to achieve real progress in the Karabakh talks during their joint press conference held after the negotiations in Baku. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov put it straight: “In comparison with the previous period, we are now much closer to success but for the obvious reasons, we do not conduct broad public discussions about the settlement of the conflict”. The Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov stated that they were discussing “some specific issues in a substantive manner. As a result, we can achieve a tangible progress on the outstanding issues”. At the end of the press conference, Mammadyarov added: “I can say that information brought to us by Sergei Lavrov is encouraging. Currently we are holding intensive dialogues. All previous meetings have helped us to achieve a breakthrough in this long-standing conflict... We need to gradually remove the obstacles that impede the resolution”. We can just hope that the negotiations will continue as intense as now running in the “nonstop” mode and will lead to tangible results. The people is tired of waiting for good news.