THE EUPHRATES SHIELD

For more than a week, the international community is focused on operation codenamed by Turkey The Euphrates Shield. It takes place in the northern part of Syria and targets the terrorist organizations that threaten the independence, security, and territorial integrity of Turkey.

Capture of Jarabulus

The decision of the Turkish leadership to introduce troops in the northern Syria affected the interests of many forces that have transformed the once flourishing Arab country into the land of endless war, which resulted in disasters and suffering of millions of people. Operation Euphrates Shield began soon after another terrorist attack in Turkey committed by the Islamic State (ISIL): the explosion in the city of Gaziantep, which killed more than 50 people.

During the first day of the military operation, the Turkish offensive on Syrian territory culminated in a significant success – the IS militants were flushed out of the strategically important city Jarabulus, now under the control of the Free Syrian Army. However, not only the crimes of religious radicals have surpassed Ankara's limits of patience. As noted the Turkish president Erdogan, the military operation Euphrates Shield aims at eliminating the threats from the ISIL and the Kurdish terrorist groups operating along the border Turkey with Syria.

Thus, Ankara confirms that both forces, ISIL and the Kurdish terrorism, are regarded as hostile to Ankara. Supported by the world's centers of power, they have become one of the key factors in building the new geopolitical configuration in the Middle East. New terrorist attacks in the east of Turkey confirm that the Kurdish armed groups continue to implement the plan of destabilization and weakening of Turkey. So, the motorcade of the Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu was attacked in Şavşat of Artvin province. The Turkish Minister of Internal Affairs Efkan Ala has described this criminal act as an attempt of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) “to take action in the Black Sea region of Turkey”. Yet another large terrorist attack was committed by a PKK suicide bomber in the town of Cizre of Sirnak province. As a result of powerful explosion, 11 law enforcement officers were killed in front of the police station while 78 people were injured.

The evidences that the Kurdish terrorism is the primary threat to Turkey's security forced Ankara to send troops to the north of Syria, where certain global forces have launched the process of establishing a Kurdish autonomy. The objective of this process is not only officially declare a fight against the ISIL and the regime of the current Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, but also to weaken Turkey's regional position and to further destabilize internal political conditions through the unprecedented activation of PKK, which is very active in the east of the country.

In fact, Ankara makes no secret that one of the most important goals of the operation is to eliminate the Kurdish terrorism, to prevent the establishment of the Kurdish zone, or corridor, along the Turkish border. Therefore, the capture of Jarabulus by the Turkish forces is an achievement of great importance since it negates the efforts of Kurdish groups - the “Democratic Union” (PYD) and the “People's Protection Units” (YPG) – on establishing an autonomous entity in the northern Syria, which would only increase its terrorist and separatist potential against the Turkish interests, if supported by PKK.

However, from a global political viewpoint, the most important question is to what extent NATO and the US, the leading allies of Turkey, are involved in the Turkish military operation. This question is also interesting since the relations between Ankara and Washington are undergoing a difficult period after the failed military coup in Turkey. The Turkish government has directly accused the Muslim preacher Fethullah Gülen living in Pennsylvania, who allegedly keeps close ties with the American politicians and intelligence services, in setting up the plot.

What did Biden say and what did he mean?

It's obvious that the US is the main inspiration behind the project aimed at establishing a Kurdish entity on the ruins of Iraq and Syria. It would be naive to assume that Washington was not aware of the implications of the strengthening of the Kurdish element in the Middle East against the interests of Turkey, which has been at war with the terrorist PKK for several decades. However, according to experts, the US has supported Ankara’s recent operation Euphrates Shield. Moreover, the US Air Force even had air support to the Turkish troops advancing in the north of Syria. It is necessary to consider the statement of the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who said that the operation of the Turkish Armed Forces in Syria has been developed in cooperation with the United States.

Now, the question, of course, is whether the American politics has indeed abandoned the idea of supporting the Kurdish movement as the key element of the Euro-Atlanticism under the current conditions in the Middle East, “war of all against all”, or the support of the Euphrates Shield by Washington is just a tactical maneuver that aims to preserve the unstable alliance with Ankara afloat?

The second option is likely to be true, as the Americans had never given any indication to anyone to believe that they would deny the Kurdish factor in a strategic perspective as one of the most capable and often destructive tools in the “anti-tyrannical revolutions”, which left Iraq and Syria in ruins. In a situation, when the Turkish president Erdogan has sharply criticized the United States for their support of the failed coup and has eventually made Washington to choose between “Turkey or Gülen”, the White House had to reassure Ankara. That seems to be the main purpose of visit of the US Vice President Joe Biden to the Turkish capital, who has strongly hinted that the United States still consider Turkey its key ally at the eastern borders of NATO. Not only has he demonstrated the support of his government to the Euphrates Shield but he has also appealed to the Kurdish forces to leave the territories west of the great river of Mesopotamia.

On the other hand, it should be accepted that the Turkish campaign in Jarabulus has proved beneficial to Americans in the sense that the city came under the control of Syrian forces in opposition to the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In other words, the capture of Jarabulus has absolutely coincided with Washington's interests being also the operation against the pro-Assad forces. As for the Kurds, the United States, of course, will try to demonstrate once again their support for the Kurdish organizations as soon as it is possible.

Meanwhile, perhaps the most crucial factor, which has inspired Washington to express at least a loyal attitude to the Turkish military operation, was the start of the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia. Given Erdogan’s recent hints about the likelihood of drawing down the strategic alliance with Washington, this might have the most adverse consequences for the Eurasian policy of the USA. Therefore, even the visible support for the Euphrates Shield has demonstrated Washington's desire to continue seeing Turkey as part of the Euro-Atlantic team.

Echo of St. Petersburg

Going back to Jarabulus, it is important to note that Ankara has long had plans about establishing a so-called “security zone” in the northern Syria. According to the Turkish strategists, this zone should extend from the city of Jarabulus to the west and include, above all, the areas predominantly populated with the Turkomans. Earlier both the US and Russia had strongly opposed this plan since the Kurdish forces were principal in their fight against ISIL, and thus have provided every possible support to Kurds strengthening them in the north of Syria. The establishment of the “security zone” became even more complicated for Turkey since November last year, when the country confronted Russia amid the activity of the Russian Air Forces above the areas predominantly populated with Syrian Turkomans. The situation has changed after Russia and Turkey after the recent visit of Erdogan to St. Petersburg, and his meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Incidentally, shortly after the start of the Euphrates Shield, the heads of Russia and Turkey have discussed the perspective development of bilateral cooperation and, in particular, the “joint efforts towards the fight against terrorism”. At the same time, the Russian media has quoted some “diplomatic sources” spreading information about the ongoing communication between the General Staffs of Russia and Turkey. The Turkish TV channel NTV has reported that Ankara had notified the Kremlin about the beginning of military operations in Syria. Therefore, many experts still assume that Turkey, while preparing to deploy the Euphrates Shield, has even secured the consent of Russia in advance of the operation.

For example, according to the Turkish political scientist Mehmet Perincek, Ankara's military operation is “a product of rapprochement between Turkey and Russia”. According to him, all preparations had been discussed well before the recent crisis in Russian-Turkish relations but the agreement became invalid after “Gülen supporters have brought down the Russian aircraft”. The US, which was behind Gülen, were not interested in further rapprochement between Russia and Turkey, believes Mr. Perincek, and thus soon after the re-establishment of the dialogue between Russia and Turkey, the Eurasian powers had got a chance to realize the operation, which coincides with the interests of Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Russia.

Interestingly, a Russian political analyst Leonid Isayev thinks that in light of warming bilateral relations, Moscow will refrain from criticism of Ankara. According to him, Russia does not have significant influence or interests in the north of Syria. “We have deliberately distanced ourselves from events ongoing along the Syrian-Turkish border in order not to provoke any unnecessary conflict. Russia is concentrating the efforts in other parts of Syria, mainly in Aleppo”, says Isayev.

Therefore, we can assume a certain agreement between Turkey and Russia and issues related to the military activities of the two countries in Syria. It is noteworthy that a mechanism allowing for harmonizing the joint actions of the military staffs and intelligence services of Russia and Turkey was developed after talks between Putin and Erdogan in St. Petersburg. It is difficult to assume that Ankara would dare conduct a military campaign in the northern Syria in defiance of Russia, which Erdogan has hardly re-established just a few weeks ago. Moscow has apparently not opposed the Turkish “shield”, being convinced that Erdogan would focus on solving the Turkish issues, that implies, among other things, the security Turkoman population at this part of the Syrian territory, which had turned into a stronghold of the Kurdish terrorism. At the same time, Turkey is thought to objectively contribute to ousting ISIL from these territories, which again corresponds to the interests of both Moscow and Damascus. In other words, Ankara is likely to refrain from trying to influence the Syrian authorities, which means that Moscow could well have a close eye on developments in Jarabulus.

The Turkish leadership has recently significantly reduced the intensity of anti-Assad rhetoric, which is another fact that supports our assumption. The Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim even hinted that Ankara was no longer against the conservation of Bashar al-Assad’s authority during the transition period. The Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Nurettin Canikli has mentioned that Ankara was interested in developing economic relations with Syria. Meanwhile, information about a secret meeting in Damascus between one of the key members of the Turkish intelligence with the Syrian leadership, which also discussed the Kurdish question, has recently leaked to the media. It is possible that, despite the official condemnation of the Turkish operation in Damascus, Syria is objectively interested in its success, which could weaken the Kurdish movement trying to disintegrate the country. We may recall the recent air strikes of the Syrian Air Forces on the positions of the Kurds in al-Hassak. This hints that a number of factors closely related to interests of many forces involved in the Syrian war has contributed to the successful implementation of the Turkish campaign in Jarabulus. But the main thing is that the operation confirmed the strong intention of Turkey to defend its national interests related to both the stability in the country, and the strengthening of Ankara's regional and global interests.