THE SYRIAN TWILIGHT

The Syrian conflict witnesses yet another round of mounting tensions undermining all hopes for the peace agreement that the opposing parties may reach in a short time. The protracted armed crisis in this once-flourishing Arab country is even more exacerbated due to a failed ceasefire recently reached under the auspices of the leading external actors of the conflict - the US and Russia.

Echo of Deir ez-Zor

According to the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the ceasefire would allow to establish effective coordination between Moscow and Washington in the fight against terrorism, to expand humanitarian access to indigent Syrian communities and to create conditions for the resumption of the political process. According to US media, the main priority in the peace agreement was demarcation of the territory controlled by moderate opposition, and the territory seized by terrorist groups, Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra.

However, a week after the start of the ceasefire, it was actually canceled. Russia blamed the United States and the Syrian opposition for the failure of the agreement while the Moscow-backed Damascus explained the cancellation by the fact that the terrorists have violated the ceasefire at least 300 times. The United States complain that Russia and the Assad regime had not fulfilled their obligations: the humanitarian corridors in Aleppo, surrounded by opposition forces, had not been opened.

Meanwhile, the real cause of failure was bombing of Syrian troops near the town of Deir ez-Zor by international coalition forces led by the United States. At least 62 people were killed and more than 100 soldiers of the Syrian army were wounded. According to experts, on the day of bombing, the world was actually on the verge of a hot war between the US and Russia. For the first time since the Korean War, the US and Russian soldiers could come to close quarters in armed clash. For Syria, the American attack on Syrian army may have important consequences, as the positions bombed by USAF were immediately taken by ISIS forces.

Although the Pentagon has expressed regret over the incident, calling it a mistake, Moscow claimed that the United States did not want to see the defeat of opposition forces. The Russian Foreign Ministry has noted that such “mistakes” on part of the pro-American coalition seems more like a support to the terrorists. In response, the US officials have said that Russia did not use all its capabilities to exert pressure on the Syrian government, which deliberately pacifies the opposition through continuing airstrikes.

The differences between the US and Russia over Syria, and the overall situation in the country has deteriorated even more after the tragic incident, which occurred immediately after the collapse of the ceasefire. On the night of September 20, a joint convoy of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent and the United Nations, carrying out a humanitarian mission on delivery of goods for more than 160 thousand people in the settlements around Aleppo and Homs, came under fire in the north-west of Aleppo. Twenty civilians and a member of the UN mission, the director of one of the branches of the Syrian Red Crescent Society Omar Barakat were killed during the attack.

The American administration has immediately announced the culprits of the attack being Moscow and Damascus. Ben Rhodes, Deputy National Security Adviser to the US President, has said that the attack could be caused either by the Syrian authorities or by Russia. At the same time, the United States “in any case” consider Russia responsible for the airstrike in this area.

Now it is Russia’s turn to respond. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova has stated that the US administration had “no evidence”. The presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has called the accusations against Damascus and Moscow simply ungrounded.

Despite the Russian refutation of accusations, Washington has expressed its readiness to review the current framework for cooperation with Moscow on the Syrian settlement. The US administration has stated that it was premature to conclude an agreement with Russia on military cooperation in Syria until there was no durable truce.

During his speech at the UN General Assembly session, the US President Barack Obama has expressed his indignation at the fact that ‘Russia is trying to regain its former glory by force’. This may be considered as an indicator of the increasingly escalating relations between the US and Russia. It is clear that the Syrian crisis is a cornerstone of international problems, in the course of which the development of global confrontation between the US and Russia, as a reminiscence of Cold War times, becomes a serious problem heralding about the threats to peace and security in the world.

Between Azaz and Jarabulus

Meanwhile, speaking about the development of the Syrian crisis, it is impossible to ignore the factor of Turkey, whose role in regional geopolitics can have serious consequences. Especially, considering he ongoing military operations in the north of Syria, Ankara aims at squeezing away both religious and Kurdish-nationalist terrorist groups.

Since the beginning of operation Euphrates Shield, Turkey has joined forces with Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is in opposition to the Government of Assad, and controls the 90-kilometer line along the border between the towns of Azaz and Jarabulus. The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced the expansion of the military campaign to the south, meaning that the Turkish and FSA troops will move to the village of El-Bab currently controlled by ISIS militants. At the same time, the Turkish leader has announced that the security zone to be created by Ankara in the north of Syria will cover an area of 5 thousand square kilometers.

It is obvious that the Turkish troops are targeting al-Raqqa, the key strategic city announced by IS as the capital. We can assume that the attack on al-Raqqa is closely coordinated with the US command, which is trying to create a powerful opposition center on the Syrian territory with the Turkish assistance. However, there is one major difference between the strategic visions of Ankara and Washington regarding the Syrian crisis. The United States fully accept the disintegration of Syria into several parts, in particular the Kurdish, Alawite, and Sunni, whereas Turkey has a more strident contempt for the creation of the Kurdish autonomy in parts of Syria and is interested in maintaining the integrity of the Syrian state.

President Erdogan openly declared this in his speech at the UN General Assembly: “Turkey is a country that gives utmost importance to the protection of Syria’s territorial integrity. Turkey by no means has any interest in Syrian territory and nobody must have any other plans for it. The Operation Euphrates Shield has a critical importance for the re-establishment of the stability and security in the region. Our goal is to clear the area from the terrorist group Islamic State.”

The support of Syria's territorial integrity is the factor that brings together positions of Turkey and Russia. This implies maintaining a unified Syrian state, which is in favour of the people of Syria and the entire region. In essence, the existing contradictions between Moscow and Washington on the future of Syria have become a major cause of the failure of the ceasefire agreement in this war-torn Arab country.

Aleppo burning

The failure of the truce has tightened the situation on the frontline. Not only FSA but also a number of other terrorist groups, including Jabhat al-Nusra, which deployed a large-scale offensive in Aleppo city, have intensified military operations against the government forces. The Syrian troops, backed by Russian Air Force, have repulsed the attacks on the northern outskirts of Aleppo.

But is there a little hope for peace in Syria, where people sacrifice tens and hundreds of lives daily due to merciless war? Perhaps an understanding by the majority of the international community of the need to achieve a speedy and peaceful settlement of the conflict gives us some hope. The world leaders, including the US President Barack Obama, also understand the need for solution. He has called the international community to unite in resolving the Syrian crisis and said there was no military solution to the problem.

A rather positive signal comes from Russia, which is ready to advance further cooperation with the US on the Syrian issue, despite Washington's intention to review relations with Moscow. According to the Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, Russia does not intend to withdraw from the agreement with the United States on the Syrian issue because “the events of the past few days have underscored its super-relevance”. However, he has made it clear that in order to guarantee the implementation of this agreement, the United States and “other actors”, including the governments of several influential countries, must “ensure the non-use of force by the structures that are still convinced that only the war is the way to solve the problem, only the forceful method of Assad’s elimination can be applied”.

Indeed, the political fate of the Syrian president has long ceased to be the main point of the Syrian crisis. Not only does the fate of Syria but the entire Middle East and even the international security hang in the balance. In fact, the external power centers, which have long been exploiting all possible methods and means to transform Syria, one of the cradles of human civilization, into the arena of bloody geopolitical experiments, bear the responsibility for the subsequent course of events.