A DREAM KILLED BY “DREAM”

The ruling party Georgian Dream is the winner of the parliamentary elections in Georgia. It is evident that the former policy of official Tbilisi, founded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who is the de-facto leader of the winners and the hope of most of the Georgians dreaming of a better future, will continue in the next four years.

Pre-election campaign was marked with a rather acute political situation – a puzzle made of individual plots, including the threats against voters, use of administrative resources, attacks on candidates during meetings with voters, publication of compromising evidences of criminal cases once incriminated to the representatives of major parties. Moreover, an array of attacks on prominent politicians has taken place just before the elections. In late September, a few unknown men fired on the security staff of the parliamentary candidate and the former Georgian Defense Minister, Irakli Okruashvili, in Gori. He was not injured, but one of his guards and his campaign coordinator were.

On October 5, just three days before the elections, the car of MP Givi Targamadze was blown in a lively district of Tbilisi. The politician was not injured, but his driver and three bystanders were taken to the hospital with wounds of varying severity. The Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili expressed his apologies to the victims confessing “the state has failed to protect own citizens from criminal acts”.

The Georgian Prime Minister and also the Chairman of Georgian Dream, Giorgi Kvirikashvili, described the attack on Targamadze as an action aimed at destabilizing the situation on the eve of elections and as a shameful act of “a bloody showdown for the sake of political benefits”. Addressing the perpetrators of the crime, he threatened them: “You will certainly answer before the law. An immunity or citizenship of another country will help none of the culprits!”.

The head of the Georgian government thereby has openly hinted at the ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili, who has the Ukrainian citizenship and currently serves as the governor of Odessa region. Despite the automatic loss of Georgian citizenship, Saakashvili remains the de-facto leader of the leading opposition force in Georgia, the United National Movement (UNM). As for the attempt to Targamadze, he rejected accusations of involvement in this crime and made a counterattack against the authorities. According to him, the “great patriot” Givi Targamadze was “chosen a target because he held actively contacts with law enforcement agencies and Ivanishvili was afraid of this”.

In fact, Saakashvili was the greatest intrigue of the election, promising to return to Georgia in case of indispensable, as he thought, victory of his supporters. His wife, the second number in UNM’s party lists Sandra Roelofs, as well as the formal head of the “nationals”, the former foreign minister and speaker of the Georgian Parliament David Bakradze, did not hide aspirations regarding Saakashvili’s return. Meanwhile, the Georgian Minister of Internal Affairs Giorgi Mgebrishvili warned that as soon as the former president crossed the Georgian border, would be arrested due to criminal charges he was facing. However, the subsequent events and, most importantly, the results of the parliamentary elections deprived Saakashvili of opportunities for the triumphant return to his homeland.

The elections to the 150-seat Parliament were held on the basis of mixed electoral system: 77 deputies elected on party lists, 73 - single-seat districts (i.e., majority system). 19 parties, 6 electoral blocs and more than 800 candidates in single-seat districts participated at elections.

According to the results, Georgian Dream scored 48.8% of the votes and won the race. UNM has secured 27.1% of the votes. Alliance of Georgian Patriots has managed to pass the five percent barrier and got 5.006%.

As for the other political forces, none of them could get at least 5% of the votes to be able to get seats at the highest legislative body. Free Democrats led by ex-Defense Minister Irakli Alasania, The State for the People, led by a well-known opera singer Paata Burchuladze, Republican Party, chaired by the Speaker of the Parliament David Usupashvili, as well as the Labour Party, led by well-known politician Shalva Natelashvili failed to get into parliament.

It is expected that in a number of districts for the majoritarian candidates, where none of them has received the required number of votes (50% plus one vote), the second round will be held. However, the second round in some majoritarian districts will not have a significant impact on the overall picture of the Georgian electorate preferences. Georgian Dream undoubtedly retains the lead in the country's political system. Even in spite of the protests of UNM, accusing the authorities of organizing “fraudulent elections”.

“The elections were rigged in all directions”, said one of the leaders of the United National Movement, Nika Melia. Saakashvili himself called upon UNM supporters to not give up. However, contrary to the predictions of many experts, the election results did not lead to any serious excesses, as supporters of the former president failed to organize mass protests. The absence of protest wave was the reason that Saakashvili failed to fulfill his promise, “to cross the Black Sea to return home.” This, of course, means that the era of Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia is irrevocably gone, and the majority of the Georgian people will never vote for a return to power of someone, whose name is somehow related to country’s defeat in the August war and marked the actual fall of Georgia's autonomous regions - Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The upcoming activities of the Georgian Dream will hint us about the prospects of Saakashvili’s future career.

Many Georgians are really impressed - and this is confirmed by the results of the elections – by some of the reforms undertaken by the “dreamers”. Firstly, these include popular programs on the implementation of universal health insurance and free treatment of hepatitis C, as well as a number of measures to facilitate the access of Georgian products to the Russian market, which was closed during Saakashvili's presidency. However, a considerable part of the Georgian population paid tribute to the achievements reached under Saakashvili, primarily his successful fight against corruption. So, it would be premature to completely neglect the chances of “nationals” to return to the political Olympus of Georgia.

Nevertheless, one thing is clear - Georgia has got a parliament with the unconditional dominance of the ruling political forces. This means that the political strategy of the current Georgian leadership will continue.

As far as the foreign policy is concerned, the victory of Georgian Dream means the continuation of a more flexible policy towards Russia, unlike it was during Saakashvili's reign. However, it is not expected to see a fundamental rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi, since Russia, apparently, is unwavering in its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Meanwhile, Georgian society is requesting the improvement of relations with Moscow. This is evidenced, in particular, by the third runner of the parliamentary elections, which is Alliance of Patriots, seen by many as a political force with the pro-Russian orientation. Two years ago, the leader of the Alliance, Irma Inashvili, who claimed the post of Mayor of Tbilisi, has previously worked at the Russian TV First Channel. Now she promises to protect Georgia from the “pernicious influence of the West” and to improve relations with Russia.

Yet another political force considered pro-Russian is Nino Burjanadze - Democratic Georgia. In her election program, Nino Burjanadze, one of the leaders of the Rose Revolution and the ex-speaker of the Georgian Parliament, proposed to declare Georgia a non-bloc country to actively develop relations with the West and with Russia. However, the election results show Burjanadze’s personal failure. She has not managed to create a political party for years of active opposition activity that could be more or less influential component of the Georgian political system.

However, the pro-Russian sentiments of some political forces do not change the fact that the Georgian society as a whole is oriented towards the integration into the Euro-Atlantic space. The current victory of the pro-European Georgian Dream hints that Tbilisi will continue the pro-Western course. The “Dreamers” program clearly states the objective of deepening the strategic partnership with the United States, including in the defense sphere. Although it is evident that many Georgians waiting for a speedy entry into NATO and the European Union were disappointment by the outcomes of this process, most likely due to the reluctance of Western authorities to confront with Russia over Georgia.

There is no need to expect significant changes in Georgia and its relations with the neighbours in the South Caucasus. Georgian Dream considers Azerbaijan as its closest strategic partner, but is also willing to provide the same level of cooperation with Armenia, as part of Tbilisi's foreign policy priorities. By the way, these attempts are clearly futile, given the scale of Baku’s impact on the economic situation in Georgia, her position in the regional policy, and the large-scale projects in the Eurasian crossroads, implemented under the leadership of Azerbaijan.