THE KING WITHOUT A RETINUE

The two-week epic with the capture of the police station in Yerevan has revealed the complexity of political situation in Armenia, where a significant part of the population supported the terrorist organization Sasna Tsrer. In fact, many analysts believe that it was Serzh Sargsyan, who initiated the recent protests to strengthen his shaky position on the Karabakh talks. However, the political discontent in Armenia is so great that people are ready to support anyone, who opposes the authorities. As a result, Sargsyan was forced to announce the preparations to establish the government of national consensus in order to somehow quell a wave of discontent. Meanwhile, the new government outraged almost all Armenian experts, as they believe it had nothing to do with the essence of national consensus.

A symbol of changes or the sword of Damocles?

Karen Karapetian became the new Prime Minister of Armenia. Same as Serzh Sargsyan, he was born in Azerbaijan too. Educated in Armenia, Karapetian has worked in different structures of the Russian Gazprom since the 90s. The Armenian President called the new prime minister “a unique symbol of change”. Well, this can be true, if Mr. Karapetian is “able to demonstrate effective performance”.

According to experts, Karen Karapetian is a protégé of the Kremlin tasked to be the sword of Damocles over Sargsyan. As stated by the terrorist and representative of The Founding Parliament, Alec Yenigomshian, “Karapetian is no less than an official from Moscow. We have come to a point when we cede a part of Armenia's sovereignty in exchange for a Russian official, who becomes the Armenian Prime Minister. This makes the situation more serious in terms of the struggle for decolonization”. The leader of the Republicans Aram Sargsyan shares the same opinion and believes that Karapetian was chosen outside of Armenia with a mission.

However, the Armenian president had particular reasons to appoint Karapetian. Firstly, unlike his predecessors, Tigran Sargsyan and Hovik Abrahamian, Karapetian has never compromised himself. Secondly, unlike the same Abrahamian, Karapetian does not have political heft and economic power. And finally, in 2018, when the Prime Minister takes control over the majority of executive powers according to the new Constitution, Karapetian may leave his post to Sargsyan much easier than would Hovik Abrahamian, who has recently resigned with undisguised resentment. On the other hand, some recent events show that Karapetian may also be “a tough nut” with political ambitions.

Karapetian’s messages

Abel Aganbekian, a well-known economist and fellow of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, has recently visited Armenia. During his tenure as the chief economic adviser to Mikhail Gorbachev, he was one of the authors of Perestroika. Many experts still believe than Aganbekian is one of the culprits of the collapse of the Soviet Union. He had also authored the “first shot” in the Karabakh war: in November 1987, addressing the representatives of the Armenian diaspora in Paris, he said: “As an economist, I believe that Karabakh is more connected with Armenia than with Azerbaijan”.

During his visit to Yerevan at the invitation of the newly appointed prime minister, this liberal economist made a very interesting statement. After a long appraisal speech addressed to Karen Karapetian, as one of his most apt students, Mr. Aganbekian was asked by newspaper Hraparak as to whether he could recommend anything to President Sargsyan. The academician responded quite eloquently and succinctly: “He must go! He has shown that he was incompetent”. In any case, this statement was a provocative one challenging the acting president and expressed by Aganbekian’s “apt pupil”, Karapetian, rather than the old liberal himself.

Yet another message of the incumbent prime minister has caused even greater resonance. The comment of Galust Sahakian, the speaker of the Armenian parliament, on Karapetian’s statement about the relevancy of discouraging “primitive theft” in the government (though he did not specify the tools to deal with more sophisticated cases of theft), stupefied even the professional linguists. According to Sahakyan, “The term ‘theft’ has nothing to do with stealing. It is not when the thieves literally steal or sweep off something. It simply means a failure to fulfill functions”. Upon completing his post-modern interpretation of the concept of “stealing”, Mr. Sahakian added that if someone knew the names of the thieves, he must apply to relevant authorities. In short, he made it clear that the Armenian political elite was not going to tolerate the “arbitrary statements” of the new prime minister.

Meanwhile, the parliamentary elections in Armenia will take place in less than seven months. Given the structure of power and the rules of the game accepted by the ruling elite, the question of “symbolic” changes that Karapetian's team can bring into the existing “order” in such a short period remains open. The new government is powerless under the current systemic crisis in Armenia and is able to utter populist statements only. For example, the government has recently discussed the issue of revising the domestic energy tariffs. In fact, it was Karapetian, who had engineered the existing pricing policy during his tenure as the CEO of ArmRosGazprom. It turns out that he either was not aware of high level of these tariffs, or intentionally acted against his own people.

All the King's Men

Upon Karapetian’s recommendations, seven ministers (including the ministers of finance, health, culture, energy, transport and communications, economy, and agriculture) were appointed to the new government of Armenias.

Hranush Hakobian retained the portfolio of Diaspora Minister – quite a significant post in Armenia, which the experts believe is connected somehow to Russia. They think that her appointment was heavily supported by Russian oligarchs of Armenian descent, Karen and Samvel Karapetians of Tashir Group of companies. Mrs. Hakobian has an infamous reputation for “pumping in” the Armenian diaspora donations to “necessary spheres” for many years. And apparently, the She-Minister of Diaspora will continue to drain the money off the Diaspora’s coffer.

Speaking about the Diaspora, we should mention another party, the long-standing supporter of the Armenian Case – the Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun, represented in the new government with three ministers: ministers of education and science, environmental protection, and territorial administration and development. However, this did not stop the Dashnak leader Hrant Margarian from calling upon the need for “a qualitative change of the power” during a party rally in Vanadzor. But the question is why, in that case, did the Dashnaks agree to accept three ministerial portfolios under the current government?

However, the main plot behind the process of forming the new Armenian government was certainly revolving around the appointments of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Defense. After the April defeat of Armenia in Karabakh, the issue of resignation of these two ministers was on top of political agenda. Until recently, their fate was not clear. At the end of the day, the intrigue boils down to either one of the two: Serzh Sargsyan had tried to keep the suspense until the end of the game or he had not received specific instructions from the outside. According to the Armenian press, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov had personally backed up his Armenian counterpart Edvard Nalbandian. This hints about the perspective foreign policy of Armenia.

As for the appointment of the Minister of Defense, this can truly be considered the climax of the formation of the new Armenian government. After the “quiet revolution” in 1998, Armenia has been controlled by a military junta shaped of former warlords, namely the perpetrators of war crimes against the humanity in Karabakh. Accordingly, the army is the main force in the country and the defense minister is the most strategic post in this regard. By the way, Serge Sargsyan was the Minister of Defense as well.

In fact, the former Minister Seyran Ohanian has long fallen into disgrace of the Armenian rulers. Frequent publication of materials compromising himself and his family members, as well as Armenia’s defeat in the April skirmish had loosened Ohanian’s positions. However, there are rumours that he will be offered the position of General Secretary of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, Mr. Ohanian rules out such a possibility. It is still unknown if he replaces the incumbent General Secretary Nikolai Bordyuzha. Nevertheless, it is evident that after the resignation, he had joined the ranks of the resentful. According to Hraparak, the talks about his transition to the opposition camp are actively peddled – he is announced to chair the Shrjadarts (Breakthrough), a party to be formed by the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, Viktor Dallakian.

Anyway, the post of the Armenian Defense Minister was given to Vigen Sargsyan, which caused confusion in the Armenian expert circles. A graduate of the Northwest Academy of Civil Service in St. Petersburg, Vigen Sargsyan continued his education at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, as well as Tufts and Harvard universities. After returning to Armenia, he held several administrative positions. However, he has no record of military or law enforcement service in his long resume.

Following the appointment of the Minister of Defense, Serzh Sargsyan appointed the former commander of the “Karabakh Army”, Movses Hakobian, as the new Chief of Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces. The ex-Chief of Staff, the retired general Yuri Khachaturov, will continue his career taking a symbolic post of the Secretary of Security Council. According to Armenian media, the Defense Minister Vigen Sargsyan will control organizational issues, including the procurement and other ‘civic’ matters, while Movses Hakobian will have a direct control of the troops.

It is also rumoured that by appointing Hakobyan as the Chief of Staff, Serzh Sargsyan has drawn him closer, forcing the former to turn away from his loyal ally and the former commander, namely the ex-President of Armenia, Robert Kocharian.

Thus, Serzh Sargsyan seems to be able to strengthen his positions in Armenia. But this is only the visible side of the plot. Apparently, most of the Armenian population treat the current president negatively. The new government led by Karen Karapetian cannot be considered a part of Sargsyan’s team either. Furthermore, having the cabinet updated, the Armenian President earned enemies among the powerful people of his once close associates, including Hovik Abrahamian, Seyran Ohanian, and many others. That is, Sargsyan actually resembles a king without a retinue.