A REVIVAL OF THE AMERICAN DREAM

On November 8, the Americans elected the anniversary 45^th President of the United States. Unexpectedly for many in the US, as well as the rest of the world, a 70-year-old billionaire and a Republican candidate, Donald J. Trump, became the boss of the White House. His rival, a Democratic nominee and the former First Lady and Secretary of State, Hillary R. Clinton, failed to become the first female president in the American history. Given her age and the disastrous results of voting, it is not unlikely that her political career is over.

The American Brexit

It will take a while before the Americans obsessed by precedents stop anatomizing the outcomes of this truly wrestling event between Trump and Clinton. It was a very expensive, highly unusual and the most unpredictable presidential race in the US, generously spiced with scandals, mudslinging, strident accusations, and the outcome even the best Hollywood writers' would imagine of. For many, the result of elections was a sensation comparable with the Brexit only. Trump’s win has destroyed all political patterns, knocking down the predictions of eminent experts and sociological companies. The majority of polls had revealed Clinton's lead, but it is clear now that the analyses were worthless, while the desire of voters for change was stronger than the well-pumped muscles of administrative resources.

The sociologists have failed to notice that a great many of Americans supporting Trump remained reluctant to admit the choice up until the elections. After all, throughout the election campaign, the Republican billionaire has been constantly accused of sexism, radicalism, tax evasion, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, etc., which are considered terrible sins in the US, a country where you must be tolerant and politically correct, if you want to get a good education or to make a career. Thus, Trump’s victory once again proved that the things are not always what they seem to be, and one day this could lead to something serious. It was not expected and everyone who disagreed with his policies were in a state of shock, poured into social networks during the first hours of Trump’s triumph.

On the other hand, huge administrative and commercial resources supported Clinton, including the banks, military companies, and media. But what was missing for a final breakthrough? The former Secretary of State relied on the educated, progressive part of the population, women, minorities, and migrants. It would seem that the migrants are a source of impressive support, as the US is called the country of migrants. For example, the Hispanics make up 17% of the US electorate, and it was expected that their voices would be crucial in key states like Florida. But Florida voted for Trump. Perhaps the voters just realized that Clinton had no less populist rhetoric than Trump. The same Hispanic population is well aware that there is a huge gap from between pre-election promises and real actions. Her experience and supporters were the strengths of Clinton, but she is not a charismatic politician and has a sullied reputation. Also, the suspicions of concealing the disease, which she allegedly suffered, as well as the scandal around the mail leakage, when it was revealed that while serving as the Secretary of State, Mrs. Clinton had led business correspondence through her personal mailbox. Shortly before the ballots, FBI stated that approximately five intelligence services of foreign countries could have access to Clinton’s emails, which in fact is regarded as a treason.

The difference between a candidate and a president

All eyes are turned on Trump, who is going to steer the most powerful country in the world. Nobody considered his opinions and believed that he ever manages to win the primaries. Perhaps Mr. Trump did not believe in his presidency himself, and it was just a passing fancy of making fun of the presidential elections. Why not, if he has already achieved everything: he is a billionaire, a showman super popular with his international beauty pageants, five times a father and eight times a grandfather. His private life is a perfect nominee for TV shows. He has deserved a retirement long time ago but his spirit brims over, and the law does not prohibit doing politics at his age, does it? He was called a smarty-pants, a clown, a manipulator, a stubborn, a smooth operator, a populist, a braggart, an infantile man… And this is only a partial list containing mostly the moderate expressions about Mr. Trump. The establishment and even his party mates were against him. Nevertheless, he seemed more sincere and was able to feel the desires of those compatriots, who want the revival of traditional values.

Trump ‘has gone to people’ with the slogans ‘Make America great again’ and ‘America First’. And he was heard by those who the former Secretary of State has forgotten – the American nationals living in the same ‘one-storied America’ and voting without exposure to racial segregation (quite a lot of Latin American and African-American representatives, whom Mrs. Clinton so rashly considered her own electorate). All of them are really afraid that the country where they grew up, or they once moved to following their dreams, will soon cease to exist. They are not interested in the world beyond their neighborhoods and small towns. They are emotionally calm towards the global war on terrorism initiated by the Bush administration. Most of them does not even know who the heck Assad is. They often confuse Iraq with Iran. They are simple, hardworking and placid people whose main priorities are the elections of mayor and sheriff, abortion and the right to bear weapons, the price of gasoline, taxes, national baseball championships, and who still go to the church on Sundays. Perhaps many of them are implicitly racist (both the whites and the blacks), do not like homosexuals and hate the tycoons from the Wall Street.

What in reality can Trump give to these people? Will the new billionaire president ‘take the country from the wealthy and the powerful’, shake up the corrupt establishment, limit the opportunities for lobbying and devote his time to the problems of the middle class, blue collars, and small businesses, whom he has promised new jobs and reduction of taxes? Is he going to remove restrictions on the extraction of minerals in the United States, to re-employ the same miners, to unfreeze the construction of power infrastructure? How long will it take until one of the richest Americans, the new boss of the Oval Office parts with his image of a cowboy, a simple guy in a baseball cap of the Yankees? After all, he is the same person who once said: “There are many ways to make a career, but the key to success is to be born into a right family”...

The new American president is more of an economist than a politician. In fact, he does not have any political experience at all. During the election campaign, he has criticized the globalization, which erases the borders, and the international trade agreements, which lead to capital flight and increase in unemployment. He also was rampant about having China into the ranks of currency manipulators and stopping any payments to the UN regarding environmental issues. But you can bet that the new president will soon be able to separate economy from politics. The same is true regarding his most radical statements about the migrants from the Middle East and Mexico (where he plans to build a bordering wall at the expense of the Mexicans), the illegal immigration, the Muslims (whom he had promised to limit entry into the country), the women rights, etc. Unlike Trump the Candidate, Trump the President will now be forced to reckon with the institutional power of the US and big business, the Congress and the Senate (impeachment is a powerful tool), the intelligence, the Constitution, and, finally, the national interests, which may not always coincide with his personal preferences. Trump wanted to be a president, and he has become the one, but now he has to comply with his post. Governing a country is not the same as managing a business empire, where you are the only God, king and lord. Therefore, the analysts predict that very soon, the 45^th president will accept his new role and will be much more cautious in his statements. Two days after the elections, he met with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Paul Ryan. Trump said that he would “very soon” work on issues such as health care and immigration. So, most likely, the long-suffering Obamacare will become the main target of Trump trying to fulfill his election promises by reforming the health insurance system. After that, his passion for changes is likely to cool. Incidentally, his pre-election calls to ban the entry of the Muslims are fading out from his website.

Almost a winner

Trump also should not forget that he is not a winner in every sense of the word. And it is not only about the number of electoral votes versus the number of popular votes. The main reason is that, despite the high turnout, the majority of voters are in extreme disappointment in the last election campaign. In fact, the Americans were forced to choose the lesser of two evils. Many supporters of Trump were ardent opponents of Clinton, who were ready to vote for anyone in order not to see the former First Lady in the White House. Here is the comment of an average American, Kerry Lockhart, a father of three grown-up daughters, a Baptist and a former military to R+ regarding his political preferences: “Yes, I voted for Trump, like most of the Americans. We are tired of corrupt politicians. Sure, Trump is far from ideal, but many consider him the best, if you choose between him and Clinton.”

Such a high distrust of the candidates, by the way, was one of the features of American elections. It is true that the electoral system in the US is too complicated and does not reflect the real will of the citizens. The recent situation has demonstrated that the citizens are annoyed by only two choices between the two candidates. The OSCE observers noted that the existing rules made it difficult to register and participate in the presidential race for the members of the third parties or independent candidates. Moreover, about 35 million citizens were not able to vote because the country did not even have a uniform standard on the documents required for voting, as the rules vary from one state to another. Before the elections, Trump expressed his suspicions about the outcomes of the voting. It is remarkable that the American elections, the holy of holies of the Western democracy, may be rigged. Despite being closely watched by international observers…

What to expect from Trump on the international arena

This is not surprising, given the geo-political weight of the United States and its potential to influence the international situation. Many are still optimistic about Trump’s promises to limit the intervention of the US military in other countries and actually stop “planting democracy.” The Republican president-elect claims that the American interests are above all else, and he is focused on domestic issues. But how long will it take until the new president is explained that his personal views do not really matter, as nosing into the affairs of other states has always been an utmost priority serving to protect the American interests? Also, the Republican Party includes many members of the powerful gun lobby, and even the billionaire president cannot march against them alone. Therefore, it is unlikely that Trump is allowed to abandon the main geopolitical objective of the United State, which is holding global leadership by any means.

Trump's victory confused the European politicians as well. The President of the EU Parliament, Martin Schulz, voiced fears that the existing situation would complicate relations between Europe and the United States. The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, asked Trump to clarify his stance on issues such as international trade, relations with NATO and the climate change. Although his statement rather sounds as a request to make corrections to and mitigate Trump’s intentions. London was apparently irritated by the American choice. By the way, the UK Parliament debated at the beginning of the year on banning Trump’s entry into the United Kingdom. The debates were initiated after a public petition supported by 570 thousand people. No decision had been adopted, but the British parliament has been very insulting at Trump since then. On November 8, some of the social networks accounts were filled with horror as a result of Trump’s victory.

The Arab and Muslim world are in suspense, because we can only guess how Trump will deal with the explosive mixture of Middle East issues, particularly the situation in Syria. He openly criticized his rival Clinton for the supply of weapons to groups, which he thinks are manipulated by the ISIS. However, before the new year, the situation in this area can still be changed, and therefore, we can wait before making any conclusions. Trump’s radical statements regarding the Muslims do not contribute to his political account, of course. On the other hand, though Clinton did not say anything negative about the Muslims, her reputation in the region is much worse. There is no clarity as to how the Trump administration will develop a dialogue with Turkey, and its attitude towards Iran. Is the new president going to revise the nuclear deal with Tehran and able to really give orders for the destruction of the Iranian boats, if they get close to the American military vessels? What will be Iran’s stance on these issues?

Another question is the tone of speech of the Trump administration with Moscow, which has become the important element of the pre-election rhetoric in the United States. First, Washington has directly accused Russia of cyber-attacks to undermine the presidential election, namely sowing doubts about the legitimacy of the results and trying to fabricate the evidence of fraud. Moscow was considered a party interested in Trump’s victory. Even the president-elect has been accused repeatedly of being sympathetic to Putin. Trump said he believed Putin was “a better leader than Obama,” and even allowed the recognition of Crimea as part of the Russian Federation. Many Russian politicians and political scientists embraced the Republican victory almost as their personal victory and began to express cautious fears that the poorest level of the US-Russian relations would be corrected soon. However, a million-dollar question is how personal relations between Trump Putin will develop. You can say that Putin is better than Obama, but you must also be better than Putin. Given the ambitions and the hot temper of the new owner of the Oval Office, he does not want to be like his predecessor. As noted by Bloomberg, Mr. Putin allows for certain “insane unpredictability” of Mr. Trump. According to Russian expert Fyodor Lukyanov, when Trump finds out that Mr. Putin is not easy to agree with, he can feel “a disappointment that can lead to irritation and everything can roll in the opposite direction.”

For Azerbaijan, the main question is the rank if our country among the foreign policy priorities of the  Washington administration. Baku cooperates with the US in the energy and transport communications areas, as well as on security and combating terrorism. However, since the US is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Azerbaijan is particularly concerned with everything related to the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. In his congratulatory message to Trump, President Ilham Aliyev expressed hopes that under the leadership of Trump the United States, as co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group, will contribute to a just resolution of the conflict in accordance with international law, within the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Indeed, there are concerns that the Karabakh conflict will not be a priority for the Trump administration because he is more focused on domestic problems. In addition, he is not too familiar with the situation in the region, in contrast to Clinton, who was in Azerbaijan and other countries of the South Caucasus. On the other hand, the Trump administration can launch a new approach. The relationship of the official Baku fold better with the Republicans, who retain control of both houses of the US Congress, than with the Democrats. According to his Twitter page, the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan, head of the Foreign Relations Department at the presidential administration, Novruz Mammadov, the results of the US presidential elections were another surprise for Armenia and its friends. “Bob Dold, Mark Kirk and other pro-Armenian congressmen stayed away from the elections,” said Mr. Mammadov. One of the supporters of the notorious “Act on Democracy in Azerbaijan”, Joseph Heck, is also among the losers.

So, Trump will need to try really hard so that his loud campaign promises do not remain just words. Otherwise, he can make a new record, even as compared to Barack Obama’s ‘achievements’. Of course, much will depend on who Trump picks to his team, as he should make about 4 thousand appointments. So far, according to most Western analysts, Trump’s presidency will test the strength of the Western values, namely the democracy and human rights. According to the influential Financial Times, until the destruction of the established global economic order and the return of the United States to its isolationist past. However, we believe Trump's rule is unlikely to lead to global consequences, but, at the same time, it will be full of surprises. In a sense, the US has really had their own Brexit, and its main outcome is not so much Trump, whose behavior can be adjusted by the administration system, but the reasons why the Americans chose someone like Trump.

Trump is not alone: Electoral surprises in the American history

BBC

The history of the United States has other examples when, against all expectations, the White House housed “dark horses” and apparent outsiders.

1912: Woodrow Wilson

His main rivals were the Republican William Taft, who had been running for the second term, and the extremely popular Theodore Roosevelt, the US president during 1901-1909.

Almost with no political experience, Woodrow Wilson became a candidate under heavy intra-party crisis.

Wilson is remembered as the creator of the Federal Reserve System (1913), but above all by his unusually active foreign policy.

During his second term, the United States entered the World War I supporting the Entente. He offered the peace terms known as “Wilson's 14 points”, became the first US president to visit Europe, initiated the establishment of the League of Nations.

Wilson’s international activities earned him the Nobel Peace Prize, and accusations of idealism and loss of popularity in the US.

1940: Franklin D. Roosevelt

Most American and international experts, including advisers to Stalin and Hitler, in their projections favored the Republican Wendell Willkie.

Firstly, Roosevelt broke with traditions, he was nominated for the third term. Even some Democrats found it unacceptable, and Willkie campaigned under the slogan: “If one person is indispensable, none of us are free.”

Secondly, the Republican candidate accused his opponent in ill-concealed intention to drag the United States into World War I began, claiming at rallies that “votes for Roosevelt means crosses on the graves of your sons, husbands and brothers.”

However, Roosevelt won mainly thanks to the support of trade unions and the South traditionally voting for the Democrats.

1948: Harry Truman

The Democratic candidate by the time, Mr. Truman spent three years as the president spent, having inherited his post after Roosevelt's death, during which he was a vice-president.

Many continued to regard him as an accident in the White House and favoured the Republican Thomas Dewey, who worked in the 1930s as the New York Attorney, and gained immense popularity as a fighter against the mafia.

A split in the ranks of the Democrats acted against Truman.

Truman scored less than half of the votes and won thanks to the electoral system.

His second term is remembered by the Marshall Plan, the creation of NATO, the beginning of state policy against racial segregation, the coming of the Communists to power in China regarded as the biggest foreign policy failure, and the Korean War.

1960: John F. Kennedy

The Republican candidate Richard Nixon, with an experience as the vice-president under the Eisenhower administration, was considered a leading contender for the White House, and within the Democratic Party Kennedy's rivals for the nomination were political heavyweights such as senators Humphrey, Johnson & Symington.

Kennedy’s truly young age (43), his belonging to the Catholic Church in the predominantly Protestant America were his obvious weaknesses.

However, Kennedy had an insignificant advantage over Nixon.

During his tenure as the American President, Kennedy managed to pass laws on joint schooling and the prohibition of racial discrimination in the civil service, to initiate the lunar program, and to resolve the Cuban Missile Crisis. But he mostly made it into the history due to his tragic and in many ways mysterious murder.