AN IMITATION OF STRUGGLE

Armenia is going to hold new parliamentary elections in April next year. This will be the first elections since the referendum held last year, which gave the green light to constitutional amendments transforming Armenia from a semi-presidential republic to a parliamentary country. According to the new Constitution, the members of parliament and the elected representatives of local authorities will elect the President of Armenia for a term of seven years. This means that the parliamentary elections will determine the head of state.

According to a survey conducted by the Armenian representation of Gallup International Association, the majority of Armenian electorate is opposed to the current government because of its anti-popular policies. According to figures announced by Gallup’s Regional Director, Aram Navasardian, to the news agency Novosti-Armenia, 80% of respondents have completely or partially disapproved of the president, more than 70% of respondents are dissatisfied with the government actions and about 84% of respondents are unhappy with the Parliament. Moreover, the number of citizens who “absolutely” do not approve of the government institutions considerably prevails in the ranks of the discontented.

This means that the contenders of the coming parliamentary elections will struggle for the votes of the discontented electorate. And perhaps the confrontation will be not only within the opposition, but also between the authorities and the opposition. It is worth noting that the Republican Party has less potential to rig the elections. After the amendments to the Electoral Code made under the pressure from Western organizations, the Armenian authorities are not able to use the votes of over half a million people who do not live in the country. But due to corruption in the country, the bribing of voters, misuse of administrative resources, the use of controlled media and other frauds are still likely. However, even with all of these available resources, the ruling party, according to experts, will be able to receive no more than 300 thousand votes against the protesting majority of the electorate. Therefore, one of the most serious challenges for the Sargsyan regime is the fragmentation of opposition forces.

Firstly, it is essential to have potential partners, who will become the allies of the ruling regime in the parliament. Secondly, the regime will have to establish obedient pseudo-opposition political structures to ensure moderate criticism of the authorities at the right time. What are the parties and blocs that can claim to be the henchmen on the Armenian political scene?

According to the results of the poll conducted by Gallup International Association, there are  two favorites of the upcoming parliamentary elections today - the ruling Republican Party (RPA) and Prosperous Armenia (PAP). Answering the question “which party would you vote for if elections were held next Sunday?”, 19.5% of respondents named RPA, and 18.4% chose PAP. Thus, Prosperous Armenia with its permanent leader Gagik Tsarukian is the second powerful party behind the ruling party. Therefore, the analysts believe that Prosperous Armenia will be used for the implementation of the first part of the strategic plan of the ruling regime.

The Return of the Prodigal Son

Quite a lot has been said and written about the dark personality and the past of Gagik Tsarukian, a former police officer convicted of rape. The founder and leader of the second largest party in Armenia, he is officially recognized as the wealthiest person in the country. Thanks to his financial resources, Tsarukian has maintained good relations with Armenia's leadership for many years. However, in February 2015, this friendship began to fall apart. Serzh Sargsyan called Tsarukyan's “an evil for the country,” adding that “people with such mental abilities must not be involved in politics.” In response, Tsarukian called on all Armenians to unite and change the government. On the same day, the law enforcement made raids to all enterprises of Tsarukyan, and after the conversation with the president, he refused both leading the protest meeting and his appeals to change the power. Following these events, the oligarch announced his retirement from politics. Offering his office to Naira Zohrabian, he said: “I have a single request from you: no more contacts with me regarding politics, I will not interfere in your decisions. This is my final decision.”

However, the ruling regime could not remain indifferent to the big money of Tsarukian. His return to politics in favour of the authorities has been discussed actively during the last months. Tsarukian's party is much more obedient than radical opposition. If Tsarukyan once again becomes the leader of his own party, or agrees to lead any other political organization, he is likely to get into the parliament without much effort.

On Saturday, December 3, the political council of PAP held a large convention. The main topic of discussions was the return of Tsarukian. A desperate attempt to preserve “father’s” money looked like an extremely vulgar theatrical performance. Every speech, debate, and dialogue resembled weeping orphans, and all participants behaved as if they did not know the outcome of this gathering. As a result, the party decided to make the following statement:

“... Taking into account the demands and will of tens of thousands of our citizens from all regions of the republic and Yerevan, the political council of PAP appeals to the chairman and founder of PAP, Gagik Tsarukian, with a request to discuss the issue of his return to active politics...”

The second act of this performance was played on the same day. Dozens of people gathered near Tsarukian’s residence holding banners with the words: “Tsarukian, come back!”, “Do not leave us alone!”.

Previously, the main character of the play said that he would return if people asked him about it. It took more than two hours until “the star” finally appeared before his fans. After talking to those who suffer and listening to them, the oligarch has promised to make a decision soon, respecting, above all, the will of the people.

Finally, on December 5, PAP parliamentary faction represented by Naira Zohrabian announced Gagik Tsarukian's decision to return to politics as the opposition leader. What did happen in the life of the induced recluse during this year and a half? It is hardly imaginable that Tsarukian overcame the fear of losing his business empire in the name of justice, and is ready to lead the opposition to the president, who allegedly maintains “normal relations” with Tsarukian, as stated by Zohrabian. Or maybe he is going to be in opposition to the government? But a few weeks ago, when asked to share his views on the new Prime Minister Karen Karapetian, Tsarukian said that he was a professional who knows what to do.

So, who is the opposition for Tsarukian? In the current situation, the only logical answer may be that Gagik Tsarukian is against all who are against the president and government. By supporting the prime minister, he can easily criticize the inconvenient members of Karapetian’s team. Despite various forecasts predicting that the second coming of Tsarukian will unite all the opposition forces, his own position remains illogical and incomprehensible.

A Union of the Three?

As for the pseudo-opposition and the second part of the plan, the community being established around the Civil Agreement Party (CAP) may be considered as one of the pre-election blocks. In addition to Civil Agreement headed by “a permanent dissenter”, Nikol Pashinian, the bloc includes Republic Party (RP) of Aram Sargsyan. A war criminal, Sasun Mikaelian, is the official chairman of CAP. The Armenian press also calls him “a political sycophant” because of his political trickery. Edmond Marukian, leader of the Light of Armenia Party, also wants to join this tandem. Malicious tongues even say that Marukian has strong links with the authorities. Well, in this situation, it is better to have such a person in hand than to the detriment of the authorities.

Until recently, the representatives of another odious politician, Raffi Hovannisian, had negotiated with this alliance. Hovannisian has been seen around Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Tsarukian, then he tried to become the leader of the opposition, but he always a Dashnak, an American protégé with political ambitions. Raffi Hovannisian is the son of well-known professor of history at the University of California, Richard Hovannisian. Armenia declared him persona non grata due to his objective views on Armenian history. During the last presidential election, he had quite a solid support but lost his electoral resource, and his party Heritage became marginalized. While in the US, Hovhannisian made a statement that was not going to join any bloc.

It should be noted that pro-Western political projects in Armenia have only one perspective - to become a pocket opposition of the authorities, which sometimes allow them to make sharp public movements under their strict control. Armenian film director and human rights activist, Tigran Khzmalian, has recently stated on the futility of such projects: “Our previous estimates about the possibility of participation in elections and our hopes were concentrated on the assumption that the pro-Western forces would be able to change the current balance.” However, after the defeat of Mrs. Clinton, the West's involvement can significantly weaken.

Old Stories About the “Formers”

The following three parties can be considered potential actors in upcoming political projects: Consolidation headed by the former Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian, The Third Republic of Victor Dallakian and Seyran Ohanian and The Armenian National Congress of Levon Ter-Petrosian.

The role of Consolidation in the opposition field is not entirely clear. What will happen to the party, if the charges of money laundering brought against Oskanian in 2012, are resumed? Consolidation is actively seeking allies and trying to establish a dialogue with PAP. After the return of Tsarukian, Oskanian will have to make a choice not in favour of his former mentor, the second president of Armenia, Robert Kocharian. Otherwise, he risks joining forces only with Raffi Hovannisian, the union with whom is unlikely to be effective.

The same is true for the Third Republic, which is associated with the former Defense Minister of Armenia, Seyran Ohanian. More precisely, this is what the former functionary of the ruling party Victor Dallakian is trying to achieve. He is remembered as a person having more than one cross run from the opposition camp to the authorities and vice versa. Until now, the situation with Ohanian is not clear. The former minister was trying to get command of the Joint Group of Forces of Armenia and Russia, but his dream is unlikely to come true because of the loss of confidence in the president.

This is the disposition of roles on the Armenian political stage in anticipation of elections. To confuse the electorate, the ruling regime is trying to be creative initiating new political projects, adjusting old schemes available in previous years, masterly implementing new combinations, but the goal remains the same - to create an appearance of a fair struggle and to deceive the voters.