THE MERKEL ERA: TO BE CONTINUED

In November last year, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her intention to run for chancellorship in 2017 for the fourth time.

According to Frau Merkel, the functionaries from her Christian Democrats Union (CDU) have convinced her to take this step. As the German Chancellor serving for 11 years, Angela Merkel may well be able to break the record of her predecessors including Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl. The Chancellor is chosen by the Federal Parliament (Bundestag) on ​​the proposal of the President.

The main rival of Merkel's CDU party led by her current ally would be a coalition of the Social Democratic Party. Its leader, Sigmar Gabriel, holds the position of Vice-Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Energy of Germany.

According to poll results released by the Emnid Institute and the sociological center Infratest Dimap, more than half of the German population supports Merkel as the chancellor. Interestingly, only 42% supported Merkel in previous researches due to her political decisions regarding the migrants.

It should be noted that 17 political parties are represented in the Bundestag. Five of them are main parties including the ruling Christian Democrats Union (CDU) with 254 seats, the Social Democratic Party with 193 seats, the Left Party with 64 seats, the Green Party with 63 seats and the Christian Socialists with 53 seats in the parliament. All those parties except the Christian Socialists and the ruling CDU oppose Merkel's re-election for a fourth term. The representative of the "lefts", Bernd Riksinger, said that they were ready to support any candidate that would prevent the realization of Merkel’s plans.

Despite the alliance between the Christian Socialists and Christian Democrats in 2015, there is a disagreement about the migrant crisis. Leaders of the Christian Socialists are negative towards the huge influx of migrants and severely criticize Merkel’s policy. On the other hand, there are differences of opinion between the allies on Germany’s foreign policy.

Thus, the Christian Socialist support the position that Germany's economic sanctions against Russia are not acceptable. During the meeting with the Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2015, the party leader Horst Seehofer expressed his full support for the Russian position on the Syrian issue.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) has explicitly pro-Russian stance and is gaining popularity in the country. According to the German media, representatives of the party continue to receive support from Russia and very often can be seen at the Russian Embassy in Berlin, as well as in the Crimea and Moscow. So far the representatives of AfD have had various contacts with Russian MPs and businessmen. Eventually, the representatives of this ultra-nationalist party fiercely criticize Merkel's policy towards migrants.

The Left Party (Die Linke) is also known for its moderate position towards Russia. Thus, Die Linke constantly criticizes the support of Germany to the anti-Russian economic sanctions. The Greens (Die Grünen), which are considered one of the main representatives of American interests in Germany, stick to a divergent position.

If re-elected, Chancellor Merkel will have to tackle challenges both in the foreign and domestic spheres. The most important ones are the state migration policy and socio-political and cultural integration problems within Germany. The solution to this problem is seen in personal qualities of Mrs. Merkel and her political abilities.

Back in 2015, Merkel has demonstrated a common position with the Christian Socialists sticking to the slogan "Germany will remain the same." Despite the measure taken during the last two years including the legislative changes and the format of negotiations with Turkey according to the EU policies, her policy towards migrants and the slogan "We can do this" are subject to harsh criticism in the country. Claiming so, the representatives of political parties and the media point to the existence of serious problems. Many German intellectuals have criticized Merkel repeatedly while the right-wing parties are trying to expand their electorate by making use of the negative attitude towards migrants. In fact, the wave of migrants has brought quite a large number of social and economic problems. Some German political experts accuse migrants from the East in that they adversely affect the level of criminality in the country and provoke negative tendencies in German society. Because of the refugees, it is necessary to revise the state budget and increase spending on social projects. But most importantly, the country has faced an increasing number of attacks in recent years.

The acts of sexual harassment during the New Year celebrations in 2016, the attack on the police station in Hanover, explosions before the Sikh temple in Essen and Anbach, a terrorist attack at the end of 2016 in Berlin, the attack on the German embassy in Afghanistan forced the German government to lead a tough fight against terrorism both within the country and abroad. The events in Berlin will surely affect the internal social and political life of the country and public opinion in the run-up to elections in 2017. The fact that the terrorist attack was carried out by a Muslim strengthens the position of extremist movements of ultra-nationalist parties and gives even more reason to criticize Merkel's policy towards migrants.

It is noteworthy that she sometimes uses anti-migrant rhetoric stating that the policy of multiculturalism has exhausted. At last year's conference of the Christian Democrats in Neubrandenburg, Mrs. Merkel announced that after the restoration of peace in Syria and the victory in Iraq over the ISIS forces the migrants would have to return to their home countries.

What will be the foreign policy of Germany in the event of re-election of Merkel for the next term?

Back in 2014, during his speech at the Munich Security Conference the Germany Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that Germany did not remain indifferent and would take an active part in international processes. According to analysts, if re-elected, Chancellor Merkel will hand over the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs to the incumbent President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz. Given that during Mr. Schulz’s presidency, the main priorities of his policy were human rights and individual freedoms, it can be assumed that after his appointment as Foreign Minister the same priorities will prevail in Germany’s foreign policy. It should be noted that Angela Merkel’s nomination is fully supported by the United States. At least, it was until the presidency of Donald Trump. It was especially noteworthy during the recent visit of the US President Barack Obama to Germany. However, it is difficult to predict the position of the US towards Germany under the new American administration.

As for the main priorities of German foreign policy in the current situation, they are as follows.

It is most likely that Germany will demonstrate a certain degree of passivity as regards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Berlin is extremely scrupulous in matters related to Israel, and demonstrates a very careful approach to bilateral relations with Tel Aviv. Since 2006, Germany sells weapons to Israel and will apparently continue to do so in the future. The relations with Iraq are in full contrast. This region is of great importance for Germany and is the second country in the list of donors. This is proven by numerous visits of the German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen to Erbil and her meeting with the head of Iraqi Kurdistan Massoud Barzani. In Iraq, Germany is engaged in military training of Iraqi Christians and Yezidi Kurds.

As for Syria, after the capture of the Syrian city Kobani by ISIS terrorists, the Greens have demanded an urgent military intervention and landing in the city. However, upon the escalation of the conflict, Angela Merkel has declared that Germany in any case would not support military intervention in Syria. As far as the Syrian crisis is concerned, both Chancellor Merkel and Minister Steinmeier support the idea of a consistent approach in cooperation with Russia.

Germany is a major trading partner of Iran, which hosts nearly 80 German companies. Therefore, in January 2016, shortly after the abolition of sanctions against Iran, the Minister of Economy of Germany Gabriel headed a large business delegation to Iran. During this visit, it became clear that German companies are interested in doing business and investing in many areas of the country. There were discussions about the increase of trade turnover between the two countries to €10 billion. However, the extension of the US sanctions against Iran is forcing Berlin (America's closest ally) to reconsider its relations with Tehran and limit the number of projects that benefit the economic interests of Germany. Therefore, we can predict a certain stagnation in official relations between Germany and Iran.

It should be noted that due to the American pressure, the Merkel administration has played the main role as the driving force within the European Union in matters of sanctions against Russia. As one of the most ardent supporters of the Ukrainian "Euromaidan", the German government is actively involved in the activities of "Norman format" and other diplomatic meetings in an attempt to resolve the crisis in the Donbas. Nevertheless, Germany is still one of the main partners of Russia. More than 40% of its energy needs are met by Russian natural gas supplies. Prior to the imposition of sanctions, Russia was a host for about 400 German companies, many of which are still working in Russia. Major players of the German market support cancellation of sanctions. Most likely, the German policy toward Russia and Ukraine will largely be associated with the position of the new US administration.

Taking into account the current socio-political situation in Germany, the relationship between the political parties, as well as the undoubted support of the leader of the ruling party, we can predict that only unexpected surprises may hinder Angela Merkel’s access to the office of the Chancellor. This is proven by the results of surveys and statistical data too. Today it is difficult to identify any other politician, whose candidacy can become a better alternative. The candidate of the Social Democrats, Gabriel, has a low rating. Despite some controversy between the Christian Socialists and the CDU, and given the very limited participation in parliament of the right-wing extremist parties, we will probably witness the continuation of the Merkel Era in Germany.