THE MAIDAN GHOST IN BUCHAREST

The capital of Romania has been shaken by mass protests for a few weeks in a row. What is behind the explosion of political passions in this Eastern European country? Is this the result of purely internal squabbles, which involved almost all main forces in Romania, or the intervention of influential external centers artfully difficult to notice at first glance, which has more than once experienced the effects of "color revolutions" for the "lost people"?

The protests in Romania began in January, after the drafts of government regulations mitigating the punishment of corrupt officials have been made public. Namely, these regulations aimed at exempting government officials from criminal responsibility for crimes resulting in damages equivalent to $48,000, as well as amnesty for convicted for less serious items including the corruption. The protest rallies became especially massive on February 1, the day after the the Social-Democratic cabinet led by Sorin Grindeanu adopted acts that served as casus belli for popular discontent.

The protesters believe that among those pardoned may be convicted of corruption of influential politicians, including members of the ruling party. The Romanian Government explained its position that mitigation of sentence for corruption, as well as amnesty for convicts with minor terms was to help cope with overcrowding of prisons. Prime Minister Grindeanu assured that he would not withdraw the document nicknamed by the protesters as "an indulgence for corrupt officials." However, on February 5, he annulled the pardons forced to taking into account the views of increasingly massive protests.

However, the Prime Minister’s retreat did not pacify the opponents. Moreover, almost half a million protesters have increased their ranks at the Victory Square of Bucharest. Most importantly, they have changed the nature of their claims. Being clearly political in nature, these demands have included items such as the resignation of the government and early elections. One could see very suggestive posters in the hands of the protesters addressed to the attention of government officials such as "If you are a big tree, we are a small ax ready to cut you."

It is noteworthy that the previous social-democratic government led by Victor Ponta resigned at the request of protesters in November 2015 after a great fire, which resulted in numerous casualties in a nightclub in Bucharest. Then the government was transferred to Dacian Ciolos, who enjoyed the support of the center-right National Liberal Party (NLP) led at that time by the current Romanian president Klaus Johannis. The Cabinet of Sorin Grindeanu came to power after the victory of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in parliamentary elections held in December 2016. Thus, the current government has been leading the country for less than two months. The Social Democrat leader, Liviu Dragnea, could lead it but in 2015, the court found him guilty of bribing voters. The first candidate of Social Democrats the post of prime minister, Sevil Shhaideh, Muslim by religion and a representative of the Turkish-Tatar minority, was refused by President Johannis. The candidacy of the former Minister of Communications Grindeanu was more appealing to the center-right president, since it has been regarded through the prism of the formation of a coalition government between PSD and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE). However, president Johannis did not support the prime minister and sided with the protesting masses in the scandal with softening the fate of corruption decrees.

By the way, the National Authority for Combating Corruption has recently put forward allegations against more than a thousand government officials. It is not surprising that the desire of the government to grant amnesty to corrupt officials caused a massive outrage in society. Prime Minister Grindeanu firmly states that he will not leave his post at the request of the protesters. However, it seems that President Johannis is interested in this himself. And it means we have a serious confrontation between the Romanian head of state supported by the Center Right, on one hand, and the center-left government cabinet and the parliamentary majority, on the other.

It is not surprising that the leader of SDP Dragnea said that "the government decree was only a pretext for those who are prompted by misinformation of huge number of well-intentioned people to go out". President Johannis, who does not accept the results of the elections held in December, seeks to establish control over the Cabinet. The former Romanian president, one of the opponents the Ceausescu regime in 1989, Ion Iliescu, who is currently the honorary chairman of the Social Democratic Party. According to him, "instead of playing the role of facilitator”, president Johannis “is pushing out and provokes this anarchy."

Meanwhile, the world media is trying to present the events in Romania as "the Bucharest maidan", by analogy with the homonymous Ukrainian "revolution" that ended the fall of ex-president Viktor Yanukovych. External signs of "Maidan" in Romanian events, really, you can see a lot of: well-organized protest, the sudden transition from the demands of the economic or legal nature to the political, etc. You can lead the SDP leader and saying that "the organizer of the protests is clearly outside of Romania." But what is the true background of the Romanian "Maidan", if not legally prevent its analogy with the Ukrainian protest brand?

First of all, it should be noted that there are quite objective reasons for the social crisis in Romania, which is one of the poorest countries in Europe. Being an EU member-state since 2007, Romania was already on the verge of default within two years, the output of which was trying to find a means of obtaining IMF financial assistance. However, following the traditional recipes of the latter, the Romanian authorities have reduced public sector wages: by 25% in 2010, and by another 5% in 2011. Pensions were reduced by 15% and the retirement age increased to 65 years. Many businesses were closed, and this has affected at least one third of the working population. The gap between the rich and the huge number of the poor, low-income citizens has considerably increased. So, it is no wonder that the participants of protests in Bucharest were crying out loudly that "the powerful are getting richer while the ordinary people become poorer".

However, let’s not forget yet another aspect: the discontent of many Romanians accumulating for years and even decades was directed not so much against the ruling center-left coalition but the entire political class of the country. The so-called “indulgence for corruption” initiated by the Social Democrats only stirred up a powerful burst of popular anger. However, various forces are trying to take advantage of the situation. And these are not only domestic forces. For example, NLP supporting President Johannis is obviously trying to regain its leading position after the failure of the December elections (just two months ago only 20% of voters voted in favor of the National Liberals, who so zealously are now trying lead thousands of protesters). After all, if we assume a scenario of alleged Romanian "Maidan", it should be recognized and the presence of his foreign policy stage.

The pro-Western “orange revolution” seems meaningless in Romania, which already is one of the most pro-Western, Euro-Atlantic oriented countries in the east of the Old World. Romania is a member of the EU and NATO, an ardent ally of the US, confirming its reputation through the deployment of elements of US missile defense (BMD), not to mention the secret American intelligence prisons on its territory. If we talk about the level of relations between Bucharest and Moscow, and here is not one of the essential attributes of "color revolutions" that is under attack, and even overthrown the power of supporting a more or less normal cooperation with Russia. Romania does not hide its willingness to be at the forefront of Western policy aimed at weakening Russia's geostrategic impact on the situation in Europe and the former Soviet Union.

Nevertheless, the experts support the new version of Maidan in Romania and underline one aspect that could well induce the West "to resign" the center-left government of Grindeanu. They note that the left-wing forces of Romania are far less decisive than the rightists as far as the promotion of Western plans in the west of the former Soviet Union, more precisely in Moldova, is concerned. And this circumstance could theoretically satisfy the United States and the European Union against the backdrop of recent events in Moldova, characterized by the advent of the post-socialist president Igor Dodon.

Therefore, the West could well inspire a protest movement through an initiative to mitigate anti-corruption measures against the left Romanian government even if it has just came to power and have not yet fully tasted it.