SNAKE AGAINST DRAGON

The terrorist group IS (“Islamic State”) was, and probably still is, the richest, most powerful and the largest terrorist organization in history, which controls vast territories and resembles the Lernaean Hydra of global scale - for each head cut off, two or more grow back in its place.

Recently, though, the IS began suddenly losing its positions. The world media provides a wide coverage of the offensive of coalition forces on Iraqi Mosul, the “capital of the IS” with the strongest IS groups, under the command of the Americans. In Syria, the government troops supported by the Russian air forces freed Palmyra and the territories east of Aleppo from terrorists. In fact, they left Palmyra almost without any fight. On the other hand, given geographic features of the area, Palmyra is such a point in the desert that it is much easier to occupy it than to keep. It is like a “suitcase without a handle”: you neither want to drop nor to drag it.

Meanwhile, the Islamic State is still very strong in the region and not eliminated completely. Thus, it is particularly surprising to hear the statement of the IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi that the war against the “infidels” is lost. The world media has already dubbed his statement as sensational. Al-Baghdadi called his own speech “a farewell message” to his supporters and urged them to go to the mountains.

Such a request sounds at least ambiguous and paradoxical for many reasons. Firstly, Syria and Iraq do not have so many mountains that would allow thousands of terrorist groups hide. After leaving the settlements to the mountains or the desert, terrorists actually risk to turn into an easy target for coalition forces able to bomb them with zero losses. It seems that al-Baghdadi just forgot to tell his supporters exact date, hour and method of moving to the mountains.

It is hard to believe that the zombie thugs of the “Islamic State” preferred the surrender to “martyrdom” after so many organized villainous raids in populated areas. Many believed that in Mosul, the terrorists would explode the Kadisiya dam upon the Euphrates. The experts think that the destruction of this dam would lead to the death of one and a half million people and the destruction of almost all of Iraq. Incidentally, last November, al-Baghdadi urged his supporters to fight in Mosul for the last time assuring them of quick victory. However, for some unknown reasons, the terrorists were forced to leave this strategic location without blowing it up.

In fact, the IS is by and large a network operating dozens of groups responsible for different territories, spheres of activity, etc. Will they listen to the appeal of their leader? Otherwise, there is an obvious split in the ranks of the IS, which will be very convenient to leave and join “moderate military opposition” fully supported by the Western and Gulf countries. On the other hand, it is clear that no matter how strong the ideology of the IS's thugs was, they were essentially mercenaries and fought, in addition to faith, also for money. Well, lots of money… Who will sponsor them when they simply “rest” in the mountains? Finally, to what extent Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is the real leader of the IS? It is believed that he is rather a semi-mythical and media character responsible only for ideology and recruitment. The modern media requires a bright personality, who would voice necessary theses on behalf of the organization. In fact, despite his bright appearance and title (Amir of All the Faithful), al-Baghdadi is not a decision-maker but simply a spokesperson of forces behind him.

Meanwhile, the second part of al-Baghdadi's farewell speech is more interesting. He appeals to his supporters to leave for their regions, that is, to the countries from which they came. Before, he invited them to come and fight in Syria and Iraq to protect the “State” but now he requests them to stay in their home countries in order to be useful to the IS and its “holy cause”. This statement also emphasizes that when necessary the members will receive specific instructions. It seems like a new tactic and strategy for the IS. What will be the mechanisms and methods of terrorists in this case?

Experts believe that the IS is going to adopt innovative techniques in its terrorist actions. For example, the recruitment system has changed. Previously, the organisation mostly needed collateral damage, that is uneducated thugs ready to fight with weapons in hands. The IS does not mind using this kind of disposable material now as well but as living bombs, and mainly recruiting experts from different fields: from psychologists to IT experts. This is enough to assume that the organization will more actively engage in cyberspace.

Another equally menacing fact is the attempts of jihadists to take official positions. Thus, according to a research, Europe and the post-Soviet area witnesses a rather massive registration of religious organizations. This will guarantee the terrorists some legal protection for their corruptive activities so that any decision and action against them can then be described as “violation of human rights and persecution of ordinary Muslims”. In addition, legal organizations need jihadists to launder money, create databases, open official web portals, conduct propaganda, publish newspapers and magazines, etc.

Specialists who study the activities of the IS say that terrorists are no longer paying the money and the top of the IS has very serious financial problems, since the volumes of trade in oil and stolen artifacts have significantly decreased. Thus, it would be very beneficial for the leadership of the IS to reduce the number of militants. There is no person - there are no expenses!

However, the IS have not ceased hostilities at all. As already mentioned, in the second part of his “farewell speech”, al-Baghdadi openly asks his followers to split into small groups, lay low and prepare for new battles in neighboring states.

In other words, a new page in the IS’s activities and changes in organisational strategy can lead to other geopolitical realities both in the region and throughout the world. Like a snake with a shed tail, the IS will now elude trying to find new hiding places to continue its existence. In order to predict the likely movement of this snake, it would be appropriate to briefly list the factors and circumstances that led to the emergence of a monster called the “Islamic State”.

There are many versions of the story about the fact that the IS was born with the support of American special services. According to the former Commander-in-Chief of the Joint Forces of NATO, General Wesley Clark, the Americans and their allies in the Persian Gulf created this organization to confront the Lebanese Hezbollah. The American President, Donald Trump, named Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as the parents of the IS. Controlling the vast area from West Africa to the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China, this group can destabilize any region in Eurasia. From this point of view, the goals seem to have been achieved: one can speak of the partial implementation of the once popular plan called The Greater Middle East, involving the fragmentation of many regional states and the construction of new ones in their place. It is no longer possible to talk about solid states of Iraq or Syria, and, probably, they will never be the same. But one can easily see the contours of a new formation called Kurdistan in their place growing slowly but surely. However, after a while, the IS came out of Western control, and the “parents” realized that the organization had become a monster that threatened them. And now we witness a new stage not only in the activities of the IS but also in relation to it.

Many has enthusiastically accepted the words of the newly-elected US President Trump said during his election campaign and immediately after the election that the IS is a world evil and must be fought in tandem with Russia. Let's see: more than a month has passed since Trump took the Oval Office but so far there have been no concrete steps in this direction. Moreover, already now many analysts speak about tougher rhetoric of Trump in relation to Russia.

It is worth recalling that al-Baghdadi made his statement one day after the American president repeated to his Senate members his intentions to put an end to the IS at all costs. And now, when al-Baghdadi talks about a practical loss in the war against the infidels, it turns out that there is no need to unite efforts. No IS, no need for cooperation!

On March 4, Associated Press, referring to officials from the White House and Western diplomats, spread news that claimed that President Trump received urgent recommendations from his advisors and allies to suspend plans for cooperation with Moscow in solving problems related to IS and other issues of national security. At least for now… According to the agency, three reasons contributed to this: Trump's accusations of his “pro-Russian” orientation, pressure from his entourage, and the common position of the European allies of the United States. Long before Trump’s election, many experts predicted that even if he won the election, he would be forced to abandon many of his campaign promises. For in fact all the statements and actions of the US president are just a tip of the iceberg, while the main forces in the US always remain in the shadows. As soon as the president goes beyond the limits, he can seriously regret it. Incidentally, two of Trump's closest associates already paid for their careless actions: Michael Flynn was forced to step down as his National Security Adviser, and Attorney General Jeff Sessions had to withdraw from another Russian case, while the Democrats called on him to completely leave the post of head Ministry of Justice.

Trump’s position is understandable. It should also be added that the forces vitally interested in the existence of an organization like the IS, who earn huge money on this business and realize their interests, have never gone anywhere. The IS is too a seductive and tasty piece of cake to suddenly refuse its “services”. It turns out that not for nothing immediately after the “farewell speech”, the IS terrorists spread another video, which is about… an imminent attack on China. For the first time in history, the IS so openly announced its plans against the Celestial Empire. In the video, the portrait of President Xi Jinping turns into a torrent of flames, and the country is threatened with the shedding of “rivers of blood”. In Syria, many Uighurs are fighting in the ranks of terrorists - people from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China. They have never hidden their plans to return to their homeland and continue “their struggle” there. In recent years, one can observe a surge of terrorism in this region of China. And Western media occasionally throw in information about the alleged oppression of the rights of Muslims there, supported by fake photos and video materials. Also, many Uighurs are fighting in the ranks of the Taliban and occupy very high posts. It is very interesting that the activation of Uighur-members of the IS, open threats about the rivers of blood in China began exactly after the UN Security Council first vetoed a resolution against the Syrian government. Even more remarkable is the fact that the new IS strategy against “infidel” China began to be developed, perhaps accidentally but it was after President Trump named Beijing as America's main rival. It's somehow too strange to get - the IS and the US denote their enemies in unison. Thus, we can witness the impending battle between the black snake of the IS and the “red Chinese dragon.” Perhaps the “mountains”, where al-Baghdadi sends his supporters, are not the Syrian mountains but the Tian Shan.