A SIGNAL ON INTENTIONS

France held the first round of presidential elections amidst the immigration turbulence, bloody terrorist attacks and economic instability. The events in this second largest EU economy after Britain's withdrawal from the Union influence the entire Eurasian space. The relations between Azerbaijan and France have a special characteristic: along with close cultural and economic cooperation, France is the mediator in the Karabakh settlement. Until now, France’s policy ruled by the left has remained predictable. Now the French have made a sharp turn to the right. To clarify what can be expected from the future authorities of France, we have interviewed Mr. Normunds Grostiņš, the Vice-President of the European Alliance for Freedom (a position previously held by the incumbent leader of the French National Front, Marine Le Pen) and CoB of the Latvian Institute of Future Studies.

What are your conclusions after the first round of elections in France?

The results of this round of presidential elections indicate the first defeat of the traditional political parties in France. The second round will be represented by a non-partisan Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, who has always been an ‘off-the-grid’ politician known for her firm opposition to the traditional parties. The political platforms of these candidates can be briefly described as follows: Macron - more European integration and migrants, Le Pen - more France, more security, and no migration. Le Pen has repeatedly underlined that the question of France’s membership in the EU will be answered by the voters in a separate referendum. She is not going to impose her view on the whole nation. It is up to the French people to decide what will be better for their country.

And what if the French declare ‘Frexit’ and leave the EU? What will happen to the EU, NATO, and the Eurozone in this case?

In the event of Le Pen’s victory, France will hold tough negotiations with the EU on further cooperation. It is obvious that Paris will put forward a number of conditions. First of all, this is the reduction of France's contribution to the EU budget. By the way, this was one of the reasons behind Britain's withdrawal from the EU. So, Paris will put forward the measures to protect its domestic market. The most important thing is that France’s membership in the Eurozone will be a big question. Please note that France is the second economy of the Union. The Eurozone crisis continues, and in the coming years we will witness various profound changes and perhaps the collapse of the Eurozone at all. Macron’s victory will mark a full-scale return of France to NATO, which Paris left partially during De Gaulle’s tenure. Then NATO moved its headquarters from Paris to Brussels. Le Pen, on the contrary, will drive France outside NATO. But it is quite possible that she supports the idea of ​​creating the European army or other forms of pan-European military cooperation.

Can Le Pen solve the major problem of the European Union, migration?

She intends to strengthen the law enforcement agencies dramatically. Even now, the majority of police and army officers support Le Pen. She has always shown concern for the needs of these services. France has a powerful army able to control its borders, if it receives a political order. Marine can give such an order. Le Pen’s victory can lead to greater security and reduce the threat of terrorism.

In which European countries can nationalist forces win the elections? Can the success of Marine Le Pen serve as an example for other rightists in Europe?

Although the right-wing European parties did not show such a sensational breakthrough during the elections, similar to the victory of Donald Trump, who is close to them, the rapid strengthening of right-wing patriotic parties throughout the EU is an obvious fact. The Austrian Freedom Party received almost half of the votes in the presidential elections last year. The right parties in the Scandinavian countries and Eastern Europe are intensifying. For example, the popularity of the largest party of the Swedish parliament, Swedish Democrats, is growing rapidly. In Germany, Alternative for Germany will go for the first time to the Bundestag this fall. Please note that Germany is the largest economy in Europe. This means that the German business supports the rights. There is no big politics in Europe without the support of businesses.

This question directly concerns the Azerbaijani-French relations. Le Pen has expressed her support for Armenia in the Karabakh conflict. Macron also supports Armenia in terms of the "genocide". Does this mean that with the victory of one of these candidates in the second round, the French authorities will be unequivocally pro-Armenian in relation to Azerbaijan and Turkey?

Pro-Armenian statements of candidates for the presidency during the pre-election campaign should be considered as an instrument of internal political struggle. Candidates were almost on par, each with about 20% of the votes. It was extremely important for them to get the votes of Armenian voters.

I do not expect sharp changes in the French foreign policy after the elections. Azerbaijani diplomats will have to resist, as before the elections, the influence of the Armenian lobby on France's foreign policy decisions. There is nothing new here, and I think that Azerbaijani diplomats have considerable experience in this.

Marine Le Pen gained support on the wave of patriotism and the priority of the national idea in opposition to the globalism of Europeans. Shall we expect a return of the old but fierce competition between the French and Germans to Europe?

Indeed, the fragmentation of the European Union will revive many of the contradictions that the EU had suppressed or neutralized. France is not ready to have 200 billion euros of negative trade balance. Meanwhile, Germany finished the last year with a trade surplus of 260 billion euros. This is largely due to the Eurozone, which is an instrument to support the German exports. So, the economic contradictions are quite obvious, and they will be resolved. Military cooperation in Europe, as well as the joint protection of borders is an obvious necessity. France has a lot of experience in Africa. And Paris will be active on this continent in the future. It is interesting that the African direction was discussed during the meeting of Marine Le Pen with the Russian president Vladimir Putin. This is an important signal of intentions.