THERE IS STILL TIME

When the first symptoms of conflict became evident in Nagorno-Karabakh and Yerevan in February 1988, only few people could imagine a magnitude of its destructive consequences for the region and the entire Soviet Union. Thirty years have passed since that time. Despite the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven other regions of Azerbaijan, Armenia, due to the scarcity of its demographic, financial, and economic resources, has not been able either to master the occupied lands or to legalize its own territorial claims. But a bunch of Armenian adventurers and rascals from among the provincial Soviet functionaries and semi-criminal individuals who joined them became the presidents of Armenia, ministers, deputies, who have made multi-million dollar fortunes by robbing the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

These people achieved power and satisfied their material ambitions at the expense of the deaths of tens of thousands other people, the suffering and misfortunes of millions of Armenians and Azerbaijanis who became refugees and lost even a modest income. As a result, the South Caucasus has been blocked and permanently turned off from the progressive social, economic, and scientific and technical transformations taking place in the world. Of the three states in the region, only Azerbaijan was able to overcome the economic recession and surpass the economic indicators of 1989. Our country is the only one demonstrating a demographic growth from 7 to 10 million people during this period. Armenia and Georgia lost about a quarter of their population in the years of conflict as a result of a decline in the birth rate and mass emigration.

Contrary to economic growth declared on paper over a ten-year period of Serzh Sargsyan's presidency, Armenia's GDP and per capita income has decreased by 10%. However, this did not contribute to waking up of the Armenian population, which still remains captivated by false ideologies of turkophobia, Azerbaijanophobia and nationalistic illusions inspired from childhood. Armenians, as pragmatic and rational in their mass of people, support unachievable goals towards Turkey and Azerbaijan verbally, but prefer leaving Armenia in droves and loving their homeland from afar.

The recent visit of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to the region took place on the 30th anniversary of the beginning of the Karabakh conflict. As almost always, this visit also had a meagre agenda. Understanding that the upcoming transformation of the highest power in Armenia in March-April and the presidential elections announced in Azerbaijan on April 12 are not that favourable in terms of the adoption of difficult proposals for the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, the mediators insisted that only the previously agreed measure is implemented, that is the increase in the number of Kasprzyk's (Personal Representative of the OSCE Minsk Group Chairman) observation mission. But in fact, even this minor issue was postponed later. According to Baku, if meaningful negotiations are postponed to the post-election period, then with the increase in the mission of observers, it can be delayed. After all, the cease-fire was announced for holding negotiations with a view to peaceful resolution of the conflict, and not to imitate the settlement, but in practice to preserve the indefinite Armenian occupation of the Azerbaijani territories.

Lately, Armenian politicians, military and public figures, as well as the media have made a number of absurd statements about the impossibility and inadmissibility of "territorial concessions" to Azerbaijan. Thanks to substitution of concepts, Armenians are trying to turn the issue on its head and to demonstrate to the world not what they are under international law (aggressors and occupiers), but a party to the conflict which is allegedly forced to territorial concessions. Thus, they want to change the discourse of the negotiations in order to legalize at least part of the territorial occupation in the process of peaceful settlement. It becomes obvious that Armenian territorial appetites are not limited to Nagorno-Karabakh alone, but also spread to the Lachin and Kalbajar regions of Azerbaijan.

In his address made at the congress of the ruling YAP party, President Ilham Aliyev gave a tough answer to such claims, reminding the Armenians and the whole world that not only Nagorno-Karabakh, but also Zangezur, Goycha and even Yerevan historically are the lands of the Azerbaijani Irevan khanate, where we will definitely return. During the meeting in Baku on February 19 with the special representative of the European Union for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar, Aliyev noted that the hypocritical and destructive position of Armenia was the main obstacle to progress in the negotiations. Armenia continues its aggressive policy and destroys national, religious and historical monuments of Azerbaijan in our occupied territories. The Head of State stressed that for an early settlement of the conflict, Armenia must begin withdrawing troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan in accordance with the norms and principles of international law.

Of course, the sequence of steps, the stages of a peaceful settlement and other details must be agreed upon in the course of negotiations. But one thing is clear - it is time to move from words to deeds as far as the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories is concerned. It is so obvious and urgent that in his interview with an Armenian TV channel even the former co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group from Russia Vladimir Kazimirov, known for his pro-Armenian position, called for the liberation of Azerbaijani regions outside Nagorno-Karabakh under firm international guarantees as a first step towards the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Kazimirov has recently voiced his appeal at round table discussions on the Armenian-Russian cooperation, held at the President Hotel in Moscow.

Intensive negotiations should be held to achieve real progress in the Karabakh settlement as soon as the spring elections in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia are over. If this does not happen, or Armenians, as before, by their unacceptable territorial ambitions will once again lead negotiations into a dead end, military operations are possible no later than summer. Such warnings are expressed not only by the military of Azerbaijan, but also by competent foreign intelligence and analytical structures. Thus, in the report of the Director of the U.S. National Intelligence Agency Daniel Coates, presented at the traditional annual hearings in the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, the section devoted to Nagorno-Karabakh reads that "the parties are in no hurry to make compromises." Mr. Coates believes that external pressure, a stable military modernization carried out in Azerbaijan, and the purchase by Armenia of new Russian weapons systems can lead to major military clashes in 2018.

In fact, there is no need for any additional arguments or estimates for such assumptions. Annual large-scale military exercises held in this period near the frontline can easily transform into military actions, compared to which the April 2016 skirmish will seem to be a local test of the enemy's advanced defence line. No one wishes that the persistence and intellectual limitations of Armenian nationalist leaders plunged the region into blood and destruction. There is still time for reasonable solutions.