LEAVE IMPOSSIBLE TO STAY

In 1995, Mel Gibson directed the Braveheart, a widescreen movie depicting the struggle of Scotland for independence at the end of the 13^th century, starring Sophie Marceau as the French princess Isabella, who several years later became the wife of the English king Edward II. According to a famous legend, in 1327, Isabella imprisoned her husband for his unjust deeds and sent to his guards a simple yet strange note handwritten in Latin (Eduardum occidere nolite timere bonum est), which, depending on the position of comma, could mean either "Fear not to kill Edward, it is good" or "Not to kill Edward, it is good to fear". Anyway, the king was executed, and Isabella had nothing to do with it. After all, she was misunderstood.

It is believed that this royal statement has later been widely used to describe two mutually exclusive or ambiguous possibilities.

The execution of the English king took place almost 700 years ago. The scene and the main characters of the drama are the same Europeans, living in both the Great Britain and the continent. This time, however, comma is going to determine not the life of the English monarch, but the fate of the entire country known as the United Kingdom.

It took two and a half years for the EU and the UK to agree on the approximate terms of divorce. Why approximate? Because the entire 585-page agreement is a declaration of intentions. Nothing concrete, which could be a mandatory guide for action.

Terms of agreement

Before the complete withdrawal, the parties still have to go through a transition period, which is going to cover a period from March 29, 2019 to December 31, 2020. It may be extended, but not more than until the end of 2022.

During this time, the EU and the UK will agree on the terms of coexistence after Brexit. In the meantime, the UK is obliged to comply with all EU rules, but without having membership in any of the allied institutions. London will also not be able to make changes to the EU rules and regulations, but will have to follow them. UK also remains a subject of the European Court of Justice (EC).

The UK will have to pay the EU about 50 billion euros (the exact amount TBC) for settling all of its obligations. If the transition period is extended, the UK will have to make additional payments.

UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK retain their rights to reside and social security for this period. Their further fate will be discussed later.

Should the parties fail to reach a long-term trade agreement, which would make it possible to avoid the border issue between Northern Ireland and the Repulic of Ireland, by the end of 2020, then "a single customs territory between the European Union and the United Kingdom will be created in Ireland". It will also be more closely tied to the rules and regulations of the EU single market.

This position is a big headache for Theresa May. A single customs territory in Northern Ireland will prevent the UK from carrying out any trade transactions with other countries around the world, which would include the abolition or reduction of tariffs on goods.

Also, according to the agreement, it will be necessary to conclude a separate agreement on access of EU countries to fisheries in the UK waters. Without this guarantee, British companies will not be able to sell their fish products on the EU markets. Discussion of this issue promises to be tough, as French President Emmanuel Macron warned that he would slow down negotiations on other trade agreements if London does not agree to compromise on fisheries. In response, the British government immediately stated that it was ready to defend its position in international courts.

Gibraltar and British military bases in Cyprus will also be part of separate agreements.

Transition period is necessary primarily to mitigate the transformation of the relationship between government and business communities in the UK and the EU. But no one still knows whether the transition will be smooth or hard, and whether it will take place at all.

Summit from second attempt

This November turned out to be especially hot and nervous for Prime Minister Theresa May. Parties have not reached a final agreement on their positions on Brexit, which has been discussed since last summer. Due to unresolved and controversial issues, they even had to cancel the summit, scheduled for November 17-18, to sign the final agreement.

Even after a week, no one was sure that it would take place that month. Although the text of the agreement was sent to all EU countries on November 22, the leaders of the European Union and Great Britain were conducting round-the-clock negotiations up to November 24, one day before the new date of the summit was announced, with the leaders of a number of countries that had put forward their own conditions.

In addition to France, Spain was also unhappy with some of the terms of the agreement. In particular, it lacks clear terms on negotiations on the fate of Gibraltar. Madrid threatened to use the right of veto if London’s obligations to coordinate with Spain all its decisions related to Gibraltar are not clearly stipulated. After three days of talks, on the evening of November 24, British, Spanish, and European officials could finally reach a compromise that made Madrid happy.

The day before the summit, Italy literally threatened not to sign the agreement too. But the UK had nothing to do with Italian claim. The European Commission refused to approve the draft budget of Italy for 2019 because it assumed a deficit of 2.4%. EC has even threatened Italy with sanctions, as the expected level of deficit significantly exceeded EU norms. But the government formed by two populist parties, Liga Nord and the Five Star Movement, is not going to step back. During the summit, Jean-Claude Juncker was holding talks with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, which ended, apparently, with the defeat of the President of the European Commission.

A few days before the summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel threatened that she would not participate if controversial issues remained unresolved.

Hour X

So, after long and toilsome months of disputes, the agreement was finally signed in full on November 25 by the leaders of 28 EU countries. It seems that the long way of approvals, denials, nerves and mutual complaints is finally over. In the following four months, the document should be approved by the parliaments of UK and EU, and by the Council of Europe.

The EU remains determined in its position regarding the agreement, and the approval of the document in its legislative and executive bodies is almost a formality. However, Teresa May will have to fight with the parliament in her own country.

For the agreement to pass the parliament, it must be supported by 320 deputies. The coalition government led by May has a margin of just 13 votes, but more than 80 Conservative MPs have publicly promised to vote against their leader. It is still unknown how the nine deputies from the Scottish National Party, part of the ruling coalition, will vote. In other words, according to preliminary estimates, Mrs. May can secure the support of no more than 250 MPs.

Laborites, liberal democrats, representatives of the Scottish National Party and others are also ready to vote against, although everyone has their own and diametrically opposed views.

Those who support the Brexit but disagree with May's position including both conservatives and laborists, argue that instead of regaining control over its actions, the UK gives the EU too much power in key areas, which hampers the ability of the country to make trade deals with other countries.

Opponents of the Brexit insist on holding another referendum, because they believe that in 2016 people did not understand what the exit from the EU would actually lead to. Also, in Northern Ireland and Scotland, supporters of EU membership won a convincing victory in the referendum.

Hour X is scheduled for December 11^th. On this day, the British Parliament will open its session to discuss the treaty with the EU. May has several days to convince her opponents that the agreement with the European Union is in the interests of the British people. "I can say with full confidence that there is no better version of the agreement," she told the deputies the day after the EU summit. "The House of Commons must make a choice: support this project, fulfil the will of the people expressed in the referendum, and begin to create a brighter future for our people, prospects and prosperity - or reset everything achieved, because no one knows what happens if the agreement is not approved."

Incidentally, she is absolutely right when she says that no one knows the consequences in case of failure of the voting. There is a procedure, of course, but it does not guarantee anything.

Bad and worse

The prime minister has another chance to submit the issue to the vote. In case of a repeated refusal, the government is given 21 days to decide how to get out of the crisis. If parliament is not satisfied with this, then the deputies may choose one of the three possible options.

The first is that the United Kingdom leaves the EU without any agreement. This means that after March 29, 2019 there will be no transition period - EU laws will become no longer valid in the UK, all political and economic ties will be broken. The chaos that follows in the aftermath will be disastrous for both the UK and the EU.

The second option is that the parliament announces its dissolution and the new elections are held to form a new government. It will though not have time for new negotiations with the EU. After all, the EU leaders said they would neither change the terms of the agreement, nor resume negotiations.

The third option is a new referendum. This option in fact has two sub-options. UK residents express their opinion on the Brexit agreement or again vote for or against the withdrawal from the EU. But the biggest issue here is the time constraint: referendum should be held not later than March 2019.

The UK is in difficult situation indeed. It seems the words of the head of the European Commission better explained the existing situation when he said that the Brexit was a tragedy for both Britain and other EU states, hence calling upon the British parliament to support the agreement.