LOCAL ELECTIONS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

Recent municipal elections in Turkey became an important political event and a serious test for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his supporters. As the first elections after Erdogan expanded his powers as a result of the 2018 presidential elections, municipal elections manifested the extent of popular support to the Turkish president.

People's Alliance vs Nation's Alliance

Candidates from 12 political parties participated in the municipal elections. However, the most influential parties united under two political blocs. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) founded and led by President Erdogan and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) led by Devlet Bahceli joined forced in the People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı). Leading opposition parties, Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Good Party (İyi Parti) united under the Nation's Alliance (Millet İttifakı).

Remarkably, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), which refused to nominate its candidates in the three largest cities of Turkey—Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara, also supported Nation's Alliance. Openly supporting the leading opposition bloc, HDP focused its campaigning efforts in the southeast regions of the country predominantly populated by Kurds.

The key driving force of the opposition was the growing popular dissatisfaction with the economic situation. The Turkish economy has been in recession since the middle of 2018, when indicators are a 20% inflation rate against the background of an unemployment rate of 13.5%. True, the Erdogan government is not idle and is taking steps in an effort to protect the population, especially its poor people, from the effects of the price crisis.

During the pre-election period, AKP also tried to divert the attention of voters from economic problems to issues of security, territorial integrity of the state, and religious issues. In particular, Erdogan regularly reminded of the threat from Kurdish organisations banned in the country and even warned about punitive measures against any municipal official involved in terrorism. He later made a landmark statement calling for changing the status of Hagia Sophia Museum to a mosque, which can be visited for free.

However, the economic problems and the growing pressure from the opposition bloc, especially the forces defending the ideals of Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, and accusing the AKP of trying to put an end to principles of Kemalism, definitely weakened the position of AKP. Some experts even predicted the defeat of AKP, especially in major cities. The situation eventually led to a significant aggravation of political struggle within the country.

Popular will

According to the preliminary results of municipal elections (voter turnout rate 83.8%) announced by the Turkish Central Election Commission, AKP became the winner. People's Alliance founded by the governing party and the opposition bloc Nation's Alliance secured the support of 51.62%, and 37.56% of voters, respectively.

Immediately after the voting, President Erdogan announced the victory of his party to his supporters in Ankara. According to Erdogan, representatives of AKP will control about 56% of all municipalities in the country.

Meanwhile, the ruling party lost the elections in Ankara, where it controlled the power for almost twenty-five years. The new head of Ankara Municipality will be Mansur Yavas of CHP supported by 50.6% of voters. Apparently, the Kemalists succeeded in 19 more provinces, including Izmir, Antalya, Mersin, and Eskisehir. Pro-Kurdish HDP, as expected, won in some southeast provinces, including Diyarbakir, Mardin, and Van. As for MHP, which has firmly established itself in recent years as an ally of the ruling party, the party secured the support of voters in 12 provinces, including Erzincan, Kastamonu, and Manisa.

The fiercest political battle unfolded in Istanbul, where the AKP candidate, former prime minister and speaker of the parliament Binali Yildirim competed with the CHP candidate Ekrem Imamoglu, who managed to defeat his opponent with a meagre percentage of votes. Of course, the final data may still be full of surprise, but it seems that Imamoglu is going to celebrate his victory.

'We will continue our journey with more energy!'

Immediately after the municipal elections, Turkish president reminded that no election campaigns were planned until 2023. Thus, he makes it clear that the elections will not exhaust his government while it improves the lives of ordinary citizens before the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey to be celebrated in 2023.

As to the future foreign policy of the Erdogan government, which once again received a vote of confidence from the majority of Turkish population, one of the urgent issues is the Turkish-American relations, which in recent years have been going through critical times. During his last election campaign, Erdogan made a number of statements condemning the Western, particularly the U.S. policies. He accused the United States of provoking an economic crisis in Turkey last year. According to Erdogan, manipulations in the Turkish currency market in 2018 was an attempt of some Western countries, mainly the United States, to put pressure on Ankara.

Apparently, Erdogan is determined to develop strategic cooperation with Russia contrary to the interests of Washington. In particular, Turkey intends to close the deal with Moscow over the purchase of S-400 missile system.

Ankara is also committed to continue shaping its external policy in line with the ongoing war in Syria. In fact, the success of People's Alliance in the municipal elections means that AKP will continue to combat terrorism supported by Kurdish organisations, which enjoy direct military, political and financial support of the West. The anti-terror policy of the ruling party is also acknowledged by MHP.

Before the municipal elections, Erdogan openly stated that Turkey intended to resolve the Syrian issue on the field and not at the negotiating table. Perhaps it means that the Turkish leader is ready to sanction a new operation against the Kurdish forces in the north of Syria. For example, on April 1, that is, immediately after the voting, Erdogan said: "We will continue our journey with more energy."

By the way, before the elections, Turkish Minister of Defence Hulusi Akar attended the opening ceremony of the centre for managing the planned operations in Syrian regions east of the Euphrates, while the Turkish Air Force attacked the facilities of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. In a word, Turkey is committed to elimination of regional security threats thanks to the absence of electoral campaigns in the next four years.