LIVIA IS BURNING AGAIN

Libya is rapidly approaching the threshold of a civil war. The offensive of the commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar on Tripoli, which hosts the Fayez al-Sarraj government recognised by the international community, has already resulted in casualties on both sides. The events in the former Jamahiriya depict the entire tragic reality of the country, which was plunged into chaos after the NATO’s military operation and the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

Khalifa Haftar is advancing

The conflict in Libya that unfolded after the fall of the Gaddafi regime actually divided the country into several parts. Today, the capital of Libya, Tripoli, hosts a provisional Government of National Accord (GNA) formed as a result of a UN political agreement signed on December 17, 2015 with the mediation of the UN in the Moroccan city of Scirat. The government is recognised by the international community as a legitimate authority in Libya, despite the fact that the publicly elected parliament, the House of Representatives, which replaced the General National Congress in the summer of 2014, refused to ratify the Sarraj government. The deputies argue that the proposed list of ministers does not have sufficiently qualified personnel and, accordingly, this government will not succeed in uniting the country.

Therefore, the parliament relocated to the northeast of Libya with the centre in Tobruk, hence establishing another independent power centre. LNA supports the parliament challenging the Sarraj government, which holds power in the metropolitan region thanks to the support of influential paramilitary groups, including radical Islamists. Therefore, Haftar is attacking Tripoli under the slogan of liberating Libya from terrorists who have created chaos and violated law and order in the country.

The scale of violations in Libya is truly amazing, especially considering the presence of various armed groups in its western territories. These include military groups of the so-called Islamic State, the local branch of Al-Qaida and other terrorist organisations. It is not surprising that many Libyans dream of leaving the country, which has turned into a 'kingdom' of corruption, hostility of illegal groups, poverty and lack of power of the majority of the population. Thousands of Libyan citizens enter Europe as illegal migrants. Potential refugees at home are welcomed by slave markets and camps, where they are subjected to all sorts of humiliations, violence and murder. The absence of peace, order, centralised power does not allow to adjust the situation in the oil industry of Libya, which for decades has been the basis of the country's economy.

Apparently, the military offensive of LNA which began on April 4 by Field Marshal Haftar explains the desire to put an end to all these disasters that hit his country. He has been actively involved in the political processes in Libya for nearly half a century. In 1969, Haftar participated in a military coup that ended with the collapse of the monarchy and the establishment of a republic led by Muammar Gaddafi. In an interview, Gaddafi said about Haftar: "He was as my son. And I was like his spiritual father." However, in the 1980s, the ways of Haftar and the leader of the Libyan Revolution diverged: after the defeat of the Libyan troops in the war with Chad, the commander was arrested. After release from the prison, Haftar went to the United States, from where he returned to Libya only in 2011, the last year of the Gaddafi regime. Haftar led the rebels in eastern Libya, but with the fall of Gaddafi, he did not move into the shadows. In 2014, he criticised the General National Congress, which consisted mainly of Islamists. LNA units headed by Haftar attacked Islamist bases in Benghazi, which raised his reputation among a considerable part of Libyan society, dissatisfied with the growing influence of Islamic State and Al-Qaida. The House of Representatives under the new parliament supported Haftar, who proved to be an ardent supporter of the country's secular development. In March 2015, parliamentarians appointed him commander of LNA, and after carrying out several successful military operations to liberate a number of large oil terminals under the control of extremists, the head of the House of Representatives Aguila Saleh Issa awarded Haftar the title of field marshal.

Since the beginning of 2019, LNA has succeeded in liberating some more oil-rich regions of the country from the power of the Islamists. Today, the fate of Libya is decided in the battles for Tripoli, the severity of which indicates the possibility of a full-scale civil war.

Judging by reports from Libya, LNA attacks the capital from the south and west. LNA and GNA forces exchanged air strikes. The casualties on both sides already count for tens people. LNA announced that it established the control over the GNA military base in the Al-Aziziyah region, 40 km from Tripoli. The Haftar army continues offensive on the capital city.

Head of the internationally recognised Libyan government, Fayez al-Sarraj, accused Khalifa Haftar of betraying and organising a coup d'état. However, such accusations do not seem to have any influence on the course of events, particularly after a statement by the House of Representatives claiming that LNA only performs the task entrusted to it by the popularly elected parliament. A much more significant factor is the position of the world powers, whose attitude to the events in Libya and the forces participating in them indicates the possibility of serious geopolitical perturbations in the whole region.

Who is going to win?

Apparently, Libya has every chance to turn into another arena of growing confrontation between the West and Russia.

The United States, which announced the redeployment of its troops in Libya due to the aggravation of the situation in the country, demands Field Marshal Haftar to stop the attack on Tripoli. "We made it clear that we oppose the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar and urge to immediately stop military operations against the Libyan capital," U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said. The demand addressed primarily to the LNA command to immediately cease hostilities in Libya was voiced by the leading powers of the West.

Russia however blames NATO for the escalation of the armed conflict in Libya. According to the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, "the reason for the Libyan crisis is what the NATO member states did with this country in 2011. Since then, it has become a ruined state; let's call things by their names — Libya has become a black hole through which terrorists go south, illegal arms smuggling, and flows of illegal migrants to the north."

Moscow believes that there is no need to unilaterally name the perpetrators of the crisis, and the Libyans should determine their own destiny themselves. This explains why Russia blocked the resolution of the UN Security Council demanding Field Marshal Haftar’s troops to suspend the attack on Tripoli.

It turns out that the West opposes Haftar, who, in turn, is supported by Russia. It should be noted that the relations between Haftar and Russia became a topic of discussions after Haftar, the head of parliament Aguila Saleh Issa, and Field Marshal Abdul-Basit al-Badri’s envoy visited Moscow in 2016. In 2017, Haftar visited the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, where he spoke via a video link with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and discussed with him the fight against international terrorist groups. The mutual interest of Moscow and Haftar was outlined after last year’s statement by the spokesman for Haftar, Brigadier General Ahmed al-Mismari, about the need for "political intervention by Russia so that other countries stop playing with the fate of the Libyans."

Apparently, the forces close to Haftar are ready to acquire Russian weapons, and also suggest that Moscow participate in the extraction of Libyan oil and gas. British The Times, referring to one of the field marshal’s confidants, Akram Bukhulaigu, reported that during his visit to the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, Haftar provided a list of the necessary weapons, and the Russians promised to lobby for the lifting of the UN embargo on participants of the intra-Libyan confrontation.

It is clear that Russia cannot officially supply weapons to LNA due to its obligations under arms embargo. However, the situation may change if Haftar succeeds in capturing Tripoli and uniting the country. In this case, Russia can have a new buyer of its weaponry and create its military base on the Mediterranean coast of Libya. Therefore, the West is trying to prevent the further offensive of Haftar, whose success may result in Russia's geopolitical return to Libya and, in general, to northern Africa.

However, the ongoing events in Libya should have, as a priority, a meaning for Libyans themselves, and not the geopolitical ambitions of individual powers. The current Libyan crisis takes place after Muammar Gaddafi came to power fifty years ago. Eight years ago the Gaddafi regime fell with a demonstrative lynching of the leader of the Libyan Revolution. Libya, one of the richest, yet the long-suffering countries of the Maghreb, is going through another crisis, which can determine its fate.

It is hard to argue that the attack of Huftar’s army on Tripoli contradicts the position of the UN and its initiative to hold general elections in Libya in mid-April. That is, the LNA military operation began just a few days before the elections announced by the UN. However, Haftar didn't seem to have considered them serious given the lack of centralised power in the country.

The internationally recognised government of Fayez al-Sarraj considers Haftar a rebel who decided to establish a military dictatorship in the country. It's likely that if the LNA commander wins, the U.S. and its European allies will introduce a comprehensive list of sanctions against Libya. But, on the other hand, Libyans need stability and firm centralised power, which Haftar’s leadership may bring to the country.

Either way, it is the Libyan people, which must choose their fate. But will the largest global powers, who care about the Libyans the least, allow them to make this choice?