THE AFGHAN TRAP

It took the Taliban just nine days to regain control of Afghanistan twenty years later. After capturing the first capital of one of the Afghan provinces on August 6, the Taliban reached Kabul just nine days later. One of the first persons to leave the country was the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, which eventually meant the transfer of power to the Taliban.

Now the Taliban controls almost the entire territory of Afghanistan but Panjshir, which is one of the 34 provinces of the country. The province is predominantly Tajik and home to Ahmad Shah Massoud, the legendary leader of the Northern Alliance in the 1990s. His son Ahmad Masood gained ground in Panjshir, and says that he will resist the Taliban. According to Massoud, the remnants of the former government troops are arriving in Panjshir from other provinces to join the resistance movement. Among them is the Afghan vice-president Amrullah Saleh.

After Ahmad Massoud's call for resistance, there have been reports of armed clashes in other regions of the country. For example, in the province of Baghlan, north of Kabul, predominantly populated by Tajiks, the Taliban fought with local residents and former government forces. As a result, 300 Taliban fighters were killed, and three districts of the province with a population of about 100 thousand people - Puli Hisar, Dih Salah and Andarab - came under the control of the anti-Taliban groups. There are also reports of armed clashes in the provinces of Kabul, Parwan, Kapisa and Maidan-Wardak.

The Taliban said that sooner or later they would establish control over the entire territory of Afghanistan. Movement’s spokesman Mohammad Naim said they would either enter into dialogue with resistance groups in Panjshir and other areas, or use force.

In the early 1980s, the mountainous province of Panjshir fiercely resisted and struck hard the Soviet troops. It was those events that brought fame to Ahmad Shah Massoud. We do not know how long his son will resist the Taliban. But it is clear that the Taliban will also face serious challenges in this mountainous area. At the same time, Ahmad Massoud hinted at the possibility of ending the hostilities if the Taliban abandon radicalism and enter into a dialogue with the country's former government to share the power. By the way, a military unit made up of ethnic Uzbeks and led by the son of General Rashid Dostum also headed to Panjshir to support Ahmad Masud.

The Northern Alliance has long resisted the Taliban, who seized power in the country in 1996 after the defeat of the coalition government of Afghanistan. This time, however, Talibs were more cautious, as they initially took control of the country's border regions, effectively cutting off the channels of communication between resistance groups and their external supporters and significantly limiting their ability to stand up to the Taliban for a long time.

Messages of peace

In an attempt to gain political immunity and the approval of the international community, the Taliban are also sending signals of their intention to establish peace within the country. In this case, the Taliban will probably find it easy to establish control over Afghanistan through dialogue with other armed groups.

In the meantime, the Taliban are trying to calm the world. After all, for the Taliban to be recognised as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, it needs the recognition and approval of the international community. That is why the leaders of the movement promised peace from the very first days of entering Kabul. Back in the 1990s, notoriously known for putting harsh bans predominantly on Afghan women, the Taliban are now trying to show that this is no longer the organisation it was twenty years ago. After the capture of Kabul, the leaders of the movement said they would defend the rights of women to education, allow them to go out on the streets unaccompanied, and women doctors and TV hosts could continue to work. But at the same time, billboards with images of women disappeared from the streets of Kabul.

Since all border crossings in Afghanistan are controlled by the Taliban, the only way to leave the country is by air. This is why Kabul's main airport is overcrowded with both foreigners and Afghans who want to leave the country. Washington officially confirmed that in July-August, the US used 60 aircraft to evacuate "Afghans who helped them during the 20-year US military presence in Afghanistan." Other states are also withdrawing their troops and civilians from Afghanistan, given the current extremely difficult situation in the country and the great risks to the lives of people.

Today, one of the key questions is the fate of the foreign military troops in Afghanistan. Since 2002, many countries, including Azerbaijan, have contributed to peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan. Under the Doha agreement (2020), as well as the decision signed earlier this year by President Joseph Biden, the US troops, as well as military units from other countries, must leave Afghanistan by September 1, 2021. The Taliban have already stated they would not allow foreign troops to remain in the country beyond the deadline. Azerbaijan has already withdrawn its contingent from Kabul at the end of last month.

However, as noted above, today the Taliban urgently seeks to ensure the establishment of a new government to be recognised by the international community. Talibs continue to hold talks with influential Afghan military and political leaders, including the former President Hamid Karzai, former Minister of Internal Affairs and Chairman of the Council of National Accord Abdullah Abdullah, as well as the former Prime Minister, and leader of the Islamic Party of Afghanistan Gulbeddin Hekmatyar. Thus, the Taliban are trying to ensure their support for the creation of a coalition government. Obviously, much will also depend on the position of some regional and world powers so that the Taliban establish their legitimate power in Afghanistan.

Although the Taliban leaders announced elections in Afghanistan on the first day after the seizure of Kabul, political discussions and statements that followed indicate that the Taliban have no interest in maintaining a Western-style presidency. Media outlets reported that the Taliban could establish a Governing Council as the supreme power in Afghanistan. The idea of forming such a council seems to fit the existing format of governance both for calming down other political and military groups, whose representatives can be included in the council, and for softening the position of the international community on the Taliban. Indeed, in the current situation, the elections seem unrealistic. Moreover, the Taliban are not ready for such a governance model.

Pros and cons

Obviously, under current situation, the US, Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and India should play a special role in the fate of Afghanistan. Two years ago, the Taliban representatives attended events in Moscow dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and the Russian Federation. Although Moscow is not raring to go down in Afghanistan as the USSR, the Kremlin is mainly concerned with the possible influence of the Taliban in Central Asia, given the powerful centres of radical Islam in the region. This was also confirmed by the 2005 events in Uzbekistan. Central Asia hosts a tinderbox of radical Islam, which can blow up the region at any moment. Together with Uzbekistan, radical Islamists in Tajikistan can pose a serious threat to Russia and the region. Moscow is afraid that Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan can intensify Islamist movements in the region, which will inevitably pose a threat to the Central Asian republics. It is for this reason Moscow has been negotiating with the Taliban for the past two years.

On the other hand, ISIS, which has strengthened its positions in Afghanistan in recent years, also poses a great threat. Therefore, Moscow prefers to negotiate with the Taliban as a national Islamist organisation opposing ISIS, which has declared the establishment of a “global caliphate” as the ultimate goal of its activities. Apparently, this is one of the reasons why the Taliban initially promised stability to the neighbouring countries by establishing control on the Afghan borders. However, it is difficult to say how long the Taliban will keep their word, since at the end of the day the success of such Islamist movements strongly encourages the Islamist groups in other countries, especially in the neighbouring Muslim countries.

The second most sensitive neighbour of the Taliban is Iran. Back in 1996, with the seizure of power in Afghanistan, the Taliban committed a series of atrocities against Shia Hazaras, who are considered ethnic Turks and were one of the main groups opposing the Taliban in the time. This may explain Tehran's cold attitude towards the Taliban. However, after the US military invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban's relations with Iran softened and both sides were interested in cooperation. The Taliban have already announced their intention to establish normal relations with Iran and have even demonstrated tolerance towards the Shiites by allowing them to hold religious ceremonies in Kabul during the holy month of Muharram. Despite the Taliban attack on the Iranian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif during the first coming to power, killing 11 employees of the mission and one Iranian journalist, this time they came to the same consulate with friendly messages to Iran, stating that they would not hinder the operation of the diplomatic mission... Nevertheless, Tehran is cautious, as there are no guarantees that relations between Kabul and Tehran not deteriorate sharply in the future.

Incidentally, just ten days after the Taliban seizure of Kabul, Iran resumed the export of oil and gas to Afghanistan. This can be Tehran’s message about its interest in cooperation with the Taliban.

Remarkably, another neighbour of the Taliban, China, is satisfied with the current state of affairs in Afghanistan. First, Beijing is happy that its main rival, the United States, is leaving Afghanistan. Beijing even announced that it would retain the Chinese embassy in Kabul. Although China, which secretly supported the mujahideen during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, did not send troops there, it remains an active player in the country's political processes. Due to its rich mineral resources, Afghanistan can become a raw material base, a new sales market and a corridor for China's export routes. In addition, by bringing its positions closer to Pakistan over the past years, China will use these connections to control Afghanistan.

Some believe that the core of the Taliban was formed during and after the Soviet intervention in 1980s-1990s with the support of Pakistani military intelligence. The fact that after the US intervention in Afghanistan in 2001, the Taliban leaders took refuge in Pakistan also confirms this claim. Therefore, it is not surprising that Pakistan, which provided logistical support for the Afghan resistance during the Soviet intervention, now has an influence over the Afghan armed groups. But only time will show how strong this influence will be. Yet Islamabad denies such claims. However, it is likely that Pakistan in one form or another can influence the Taliban. It is believed that Pakistan, along with Qatar, is currently the second country with influence on the Taliban.

Although India does not have a direct border with Afghanistan, several thousand Indian communities living in Kabul and the country's rich mineral resources make it attractive to Delhi too. However, it is difficult to say how influential India can be in Afghanistan, given that Delhi is in the state of war with Islamabad.

With the failure of its Afghan military campaign twenty years later, the US so far only plans to leave the country. According to President Joseph Biden, the continued presence of the US troops in Afghanistan may "escalate the conflict" and incur extra losses for the US military. It is the main reason behind the hasty withdrawal of American troops from the country, despite a serious blow to the image of the superpower.

Obviously, the US will continue to maintain relations with Afghanistan in the future. In 2020, thanks to President Trump’s initiative, the United States many years later nevertheless reached an agreement with the Taliban. The same agreement opened the way for the Taliban to restore their power in Afghanistan. It is likely that Washington will continue to maintain some form of relationship with the Taliban government in the future, since Afghanistan remains one of the most important countries for Washington.

As for the United Kingdom, which had three, albeit unsuccessful, wars with Afghanistan in the 19th and 20th centuries, today it is more cautious. But this by no means implies that Britain remains indifferent to the fate of Afghanistan. Thus, London reacted sharply to the Taliban seizure of Afghanistan, while the British media and politicians blame the government for the failure due to late information of the Taliban's actions that the intelligence and allies provided to London.

By the way, the leader of the Panjshir militia, Ahmad Massoud, who is considered the only leader of the resistance against the Taliban, is close to Britain like his father. He received education at King's College and London City University. Most importantly, Masood Jr. attended courses at the Royal Military Academy in Sandhurst, the alma-mater of the leaders of the British vassal countries. In his statements addressed to Europe, Massoud seeks support to transform Afghanistan into a secular "country where women live more freely." According to observers, Europe, especially London, has a strong influence on Massoud, who announced the creation of the Afghan National Resistance Front. This indicates that the UK has serious leverage over Afghanistan.

Another country equally active in Afghanistan is Turkey. Despite being a relatively new player in the region, Ankara enjoys sufficient favour and trust of all the conflicting parties in Afghanistan due to its common ethnic and religious points of view. Moreover, Ankara has access to the Taliban through Pakistan and Qatar. With its own military contingent in Afghanistan, Turkey has also been noted for certain activities within the country. Most importantly, the local residents, including the Pashtuns, the backbone of the Taliban, treat Turkey normally.

At the same time, there are certain risks for Turkey. Countries with influence on the Taliban can drag Turkey into the Afghan swamp. This is a serious risk for Ankara. The situation is also exacerbated by Turkey's presence in Afghanistan as a NATO member state, which means the constant need for foreign financial support for the Turkish army and the possibility of facing serious opposition from the Taliban. Therefore, Ankara is trying to take a more balanced approach to preserve its military and technical presence in Afghanistan. The opposition of political forces within Turkey itself plays an important role here too. According to opinion polls, the overwhelming majority of Turkish citizens support the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan.

Thus, presently, Afghanistan is going through yet another period of chaos and confusion, although the situation cannot be compared with the events of 1996. The ongoing processes in the country indicate that, unlike in the 1990s, the Taliban will receive political legitimacy. At the same time, armed resistance to the Taliban will be maintained in order to exert pressure on them. And only time will tell how capable the Taliban will be to withstand such internal and external pressure.