RISKY DEAL

A day before the last day of November, Vienna hosted the seventh round of international negotiations with Iran on the nuclear deal. However, as expected, the first stage of the talks, which continued until early December, ended in failure.

Back in 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed three years earlier between Iran and the countries of the six—the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. In response to Washington’s move, which has restored the previously cancelled pack of sanctions and introduced a new pack against Iran, Tehran abandoned some of its obligations under the nuclear deal.

Joe Biden, who replaced Trump as the new head of the White House, has called for the restoration of talks with Iran. Unlike Hassan Rouhani, whose leadership saw the previous six negotiation rounds, the current President of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, is known for his tougher position.

However, amid the rapidly worsening situation in Iran, especially the socio-economic situation, the current Iranian leadership is also interested in lifting the sanctions, returning the frozen banking assets, and access to free markets. By the end of Rouhani's term in the office, the exchange rate of the US dollar was 220,000 rials, while today this figure reaches 330,000 in the Iranian black market.

Tehran wants Washington to remove the sanctions and return to the 2015 deal, but on its own terms. Firstly, Iran proposes to restore the deal based on the text of the 2015 agreement, and without any additional conditions. At the same time, it insists on lifting the embargo, expecting Washington to take the first step forward. At first glance, the last condition may indeed seem a little strange. But the Iranian leadership believes that saving its face is now more important than decisions on the economic embargo. Therefore, it is no surprise that Tehran seizes every opportunity to show its decisiveness.

On December 6, the spokesman of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Said Khatibzadeh, declared that his government regarded any temporary or staged agreements reached in the course of the negotiation process inadmissible. Khatibzadeh noted that Iran did not intend to conclude a nuclear deal in a phased manner. Earlier, immediately after the presidential elections in Iran, the new president, Ibrahim Raisi, said that he expected Washington to lift the embargo and return to the nuclear agreement. In other words, Tehran wants Washington to return to the nuclear deal it withdrew from in 2018, while simultaneously lifting sanctions against Iran. Washington, in turn, expects Tehran soften its position. Remarkably, the Biden administration has taken certain steps to achieve a truce. But in order to strengthen its position in the talks and avoid new demands from the opposite side, Tehran wants to return to the initial state of the nuclear deal, leaving the agreement of other issues to the subsequent stages of the negotiation process. And most importantly, Iran needs clear guarantees that there will be no new sanctions.

As expected, the US was not satisfied with Tehran’s behaviour. Having returned to Washington after the seventh round of talks, the Americans announced that the new Iranian government had come to the meeting in Vienna without any constructive proposals or intention to assist in solving priority problems. Moreover, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the US leadership was disappointed that Iran has accelerated the process of uranium enrichment just before the negotiations.

Yet, the Biden administration seems to be determined to restore the nuclear deal with Iran. Otherwise, there would be no need to make a decision to continue the negotiation process.

What does Israel warn about?

Unlike Washington, Tel Aviv clearly is not happy with the progress of the Vienna talks and accuses Iran of abusing the available opportunities. Just before the last meeting in Vienna, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that Iran was using ‘nuclear blackmailing’ and called for the immediate suspension of the negotiation process.

Back in early November, Mr. Bennett that Iran had begun enriching uranium up to 20% in a new generation of centrifuges at the nuclear facility in Fordow. He called on the parties of negotiations to remind Tehran that it was unacceptable to both enrich uranium and join the negotiations simultaneously. He suggested using a "different method" to counter the accelerated enrichment of uranium in Iran. “Iran will not only keep its nuclear program, but it will also start getting money for it today. Despite Iran's violations and undermining of the nuclear inspections, Iran will be arriving at the negotiation table in Vienna, and there are those who think they deserve to have their sanctions removed and hundreds of billions of dollars poured right into their rotten regime. They're wrong,” Bennett said.

This not a new position of Israel. Even the former Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, said that Tel Aviv would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. “As Israel's prime minister, I promise that we will never allow Iran, whose sole purpose is to commit genocide against the Israeli people and destroy Israel, to get nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said at a meeting with the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in April 2021.

Recently, the head of Israel's foreign intelligence service Mossad, David Barnea, said that Iran would never have its own nuclear weapons, promising that his organisation would not allow this.

Difficult negotiation process

During the last round of Vienna talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahiyan denied the reports of the Israeli and American media about 90% uranium enrichment in Iran, calling them unfounded. He added that Israel simply could not accept these negotiations and their consequences. “We have presented for discussion [on the nuclear deal] two projects on lifting off sanctions and Iran’s obligations, which are well within the terms of the agreement. We do not have any requirements other than those stipulated in the nuclear agreement,” Abdollahiyan said.

Tehran believes the positions of China and Russia on the negotiations are pragmatic and contribute to the development of multilateral dialogue within JCPOA. At the same time, Tehran is not happy with the positions of Germany, Britain, and France, considering them unconstructive. This is largely due to the October statement by the leaders of Germany, the US, France, and Britain, when they expressed concern that Tehran "has accelerated the pace of provocative nuclear steps,” such as the production of highly enriched uranium and enriched uranium metal. “Iran has no credible civilian need for either measure, but both are important to nuclear weapons programs," the European troika and the US said in the statement.

On the other hand, Tehran calls on the troika to properly study the proposed projects of Iran to find out whether the Iranian initiatives are in line with the provisions of the JCPOA and the progress of the negotiations process. Iranian Foreign Minister complained that the Iranian negotiating group has not yet received any constructive and progressive proposals from other negotiators. That’s why he called on the parties to assist in reaching a mutually beneficial agreement in Vienna.

Ali Baghiri, the head of the Iranian delegation in Vienna, voiced a similar position. According to Baghiri, Tehran sees absolutely no obstacles to reaching a consensus if there is an appropriate basis. However, it becomes clear that Iran's demands, in particular the re-introduction of additions and amendments to some projects agreed at the first part of the 7th round of negotiations held on November 29-December 3 caused discontent on the other side. Apparently, Baghiri's statement means that Tehran demands a return to the 2015 deal without any prerequisites and lifting off Washington's sanctions. But this demand does not satisfy the United States.

That is why the seventh round of the Vienna talks, as well as lifting off of sanctions were suspended until December 9. European delegations returned from Vienna for additional consultations before continuing the dialogue.

With the resumption of the seventh round of negotiations, all parties confirmed their intention to determine by all means the practical steps necessary to restart the implementation of the JCPOA in its original form, without additions or deletions. Following the meeting, they decided to continue intensive dialogue, including at the expert level within the working groups on sanctions and nuclear issues.

The White House spokesman Jen Psaki said that President Joe Biden instructed the government to evaluate other options on Iran if diplomatic negotiations fail. "If diplomacy does not take the right path soon and Iran continues to accelerate its nuclear program, we will have no choice but to take additional measures to impose further restrictions on Iran's revenue-generating sectors [economy]," Psaki said.

The US Department of State will send a delegation to the UAE to monitor the implementation of sanctions against Iran. Recently the UAE National Security, Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, visited Tehran. Abu Dhabi is discussing with Tehran the possibility of cargo transportation through Iran to Europe, which opens up new economic prospectives for Iran. Washington now wants to check the compliance of a possible agreement with the UAE with the requirements of the sanctions. In other words, Washington is trying to push Tehran to sign a nuclear deal and controls all possible options that Tehran can use to take its economy out of the existing stagnation.

The ongoing process shows that Tehran does not have ample room for manoeuvrers. The Iranian leadership also understands this. Thus, the main objective of the negotiations is to make sure that each of the parties are ready to make a compromise.