FROM SMOKE INTO SMOTHER

On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a special military operation in Donbass to support the Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics recognised by Moscow shortly before the event. Thus, the last fragile hopes that a military scenario in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis could be avoided have disappeared. And the further development of the Russia-West confrontation around Ukraine has become irreversible. 

Inevitable war?

The situation began rapidly approaching a state of war on February 21, when Russia recognised the independence of the self-proclaimed Donbass republics—LPR and DPR. A little earlier, before his televised address to the nation, Mr. Putin announced his intention to recognise these two separatist entities in Ukraine to the leaders of France and Germany.

Thus, the Minsk agreements and the Normandy format have been reset, having fundamentally reformatted the political and legal situation around Ukraine.

Addressing the nation about Moscow's decision, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that he hoped for the UN Security Council and the OSCE to assess this move. He called on his partners to take ‘effective steps’ against Russia, noting that he remained committed to diplomatic and peaceful principles of conflict settlement. It is known that Zelensky also insisted on holding a summit of permanent member states of the UN Security Council with the participation of Ukraine, Turkey and Germany.

At the same time, it was clear from his words that Kiev would try not to provoke Russian military operation in Ukraine, given that direct military support to the newly recognised republics was highly probable.

Till the last moment, Kiev expected that a major war could be avoided. However, immediately after a request for military assistance from the newly recognised LPR and DPR, Vladimir Putin announced a special military operation, which he said was prompted by the need to ‘demilitarise and denazify Ukraine’.

After the first 24 hours of the military operation, Russian troops encountered fierce, albeit less organised, resistance from the Ukrainian side. There was much discussion in the media about a Russian blitzkrieg and its possible failure. But whether the Russian plan of attack was a blitzkrieg is not known for certain.

Meanwhile, in the very first hours of the conflict, the West represented by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made it clear that they would not send troops to Ukraine to help Kiev, despite unprecedented Western sanctions on Moscow.

As expected, Europe, the US, Canada, Japan and Australia have tightened sanctions on Russia. Thus the Russian economy received a tangible blow. Shares in leading Russian companies collapsed on the first day of the military campaign. The Russian rouble plummeted by more than 30% against the US dollar in official trading and experts expect it to fall further. On the black market, the exchange rate of the US dollar exceeds the pre-war level several times.

After negotiations with Germany on February 26, Western countries agreed to disconnect Russian banks from SWIFT. In other words, the collective West declared total economic war on Russia, openly refusing to intervene directly in the conflict.

For example, Germany, which still refuses to provide military support to Ukraine and supports the Nord Stream 2 deal, has decided to abandon Russian gas for good and switch to the US supplies to cover the current deficit.

On February 27, the EU completely closed its airspace over Russia.

The expected surprise

On the same day, the spokesman of the Russian president, Dmitriy Peskov, said that Russia had prepared for the Western sanctions in advance, as they were largely predictable. But he added that this did not mean that they would be painless for the country's economy.

It is known that Mr. Putin has made two very important visits in recent months—to India and China. Both countries are considered as potential importers of Russian energy resources, Russia's main export commodity. Soon after that, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan made an official visit to Russia. Russian gas supplies to Pakistan was one of the main topics discussed during the meeting. Russia is expected to increase its energy supplies to these and several other countries in the near future, albeit at lower prices than to Europe, compensating to some extent for the loss of traditional markets.

Overall, Russia's trade and economic cooperation with the developing states is expected to increase significantly. Including in the areas covered by sanctions, primarily in technology exchange and investment cooperation. In the context of total sanctions, Russian business may be interested in acquiring lucrative assets of leading developing countries by operating in their territory. There may be considerable interest in setting up joint ventures in the neighbouring countries.

Nevertheless, we can expect an outflow of foreign capital from Russia, diminishing of its investment attractiveness, and other negative consequences.

Either way, the West's choice for an economic war with Russia has also resulted in the increased military support to Ukraine.

Thus, over the past week, almost all Western countries have lifted restrictions on arms deliveries to Ukraine. Russia’s membership in the Council of Europe was suspended, that is—unilaterally revoked of tools allowing it to have political influence on the pan-European security system.

But were Kiev's expectations justified? There is every reason to believe that the Ukrainian political establishment and society were expecting active military and political support from the West.

Understanding this failure of expectations, Vladimir Zelensky issued the following statement on February 25: “We are left alone to defend our state. Who is ready to fight with us? Frankly, I don't see anyone out there. Who is ready to give Ukraine a guarantee to join NATO? Frankly, everyone is afraid!” said the Ukrainian leader.

Meanwhile, Western leaders are aware that direct involvement in hostilities on the Ukrainian side would lead to an open conflict with Russia, including the use of the entire arsenal, including, apparently, nuclear weapons.

On February 26, US President Joe Biden expressed the consolidated position of the allies and said that he believed that opting for sanctions against Russia was a right decision, because otherwise a world war would be inevitable.

But even today, while we still can avoid a third world war, hostilities between Ukraine and Russia continue to lead the situation to a real catastrophe.

Important role of Baku

To avoid more fatal consequences for his country, in a televised address to the nation, the Ukrainian president said that the Ukrainian authorities were thinking of resuming dialogue with Moscow. His aide was more specific: “Ukraine has always left room for negotiations. Even now, when Russia has launched a full-scale invasion. This war has to stop”.

Two of the neighbours of Ukraine and Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan, also feel the need for talks. Leaders of these countries have, thus, proposed a direct meeting between Ukrainian and Russian leaders in Istanbul and Baku, respectively.

President Zelensky said he was ready to negotiate with Russia, but he did not intend to do so in Belarus.

“Warsaw, Istanbul, and Baku are the cities we have offered Russia to negotiate with. This may be any other city, which does not launch missiles to Ukraine”, Zelensky said in his address to the nation.

On the previous day, praising the humanitarian aid Baku provided to Kiev, Zelensky referred to President Ilham Aliyev as his friend, indicating a high degree of trust in Azerbaijan's political leadership. At the same time, the signing of the Azerbaijani-Russian declaration on allied cooperation also takes relations between Baku and Moscow to a higher level, which undoubtedly strengthens Azerbaijan's position as the best platform for such complex negotiations.

On February 26, Russian and Azerbaijani presidents discussed by telephone the developments in and around Ukraine. We can assume that Baku might have made specific proposals for a likely meeting between the two leaders. As one of the experienced politicians in the post-Soviet space, one of the architects of the settlement of the most difficult conflict in the area with a wealth of negotiation experience, Ilham Aliyev, could play a significant role in the establishment of a dialogue between Kiev and Moscow in these critical days.

Negotiation or red button?

Meanwhile, understanding a threat of a larger catastrophe, both sides did agree to hold talks in Belarus on February 27. This gives a slight hope for optimism that the existing situation can be defused to some extent. However, on the same day, Vladimir Putin ordered that Russia's strategic deterrence forces placed on ‘special alert’. Unfortunately, this can be the beginning of a very different story...