ANOTHER ISRAELI DEADLOCK

As experts predicted, Israeli MPs voted to dissolve the Knesset and to hold early elections on November 1, 2022. This will be the fifth vote in the last three and a half years for the Israeli parliament, since the Israeli political parties have failed to win enough seats to form a governing majority coalition since April 2019.

Redistribution of power

Yair Lapid, 58, leader of Yesh Atid (There is a Future) Party and the former foreign minister of Israel, has become the country's 14th new prime minister. Lapid will rule the government until the next cabinet is formed. Lapid's partner in the governing coalition, now the former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet, wished his successor good luck with the following statement: "I hand over to you this staff and the responsibility for the State of Israel. I wish that you guard it well and may God watch over you...”

Bennett became prime minister last June after no political force could win a majority. As a result, an unprecedented coalition consisting of eight parties was formed: the right-wing Our Home Israel led by Avigdor Lieberman and the Bennett-led Yamina, the left-wing Avoda, Meretz and the Arab RAAM led by Mansour Abbas, as well as the centrist Yesh Atid of Yair Lapid and the Kahol-Lavan of Benny Gantz. Mansour Abbas's RAAM has become the first independent Arab party in the Knesset since 1948. Bennet and Lapid made an agreement that they would lead governments for two years each, meaning that Bennet is not due to hand over power to Lapid until September 2023.

Even at that time many suggested that the only purpose for bringing such disparate political forces together was their intention to prevent the return to power of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his centre-right Likud party. After all, the coalition fell apart after its member parties failed to reach an agreement on extending the document according to which Jewish settlements in the West Bank live under Israeli law, not the laws of the Palestinian Authority. As expected, the Arab deputies of the Israeli parliament refused to vote. But even without the Arab opposition, the collapse was predictable. The coalition was already breathing heavily, with two MPs leaving Bennett's party while he was still in power. Thus, it’s a real accomplishment that the coalition lasted a whole year, though, and even passed a budget.

According to opinion polls, no party coalition is currently gaining a majority. Israel is a parliamentary democracy with an electoral system of proportional representation, which makes it possible for diverse public groups be represented in power. On the other hand, the system also provides excessive power to small parties. It is virtually unrealistic for a single political force to get enough seats to form a government. This mechanism has always worked for Israel, though. Up until the last four years. No one can predict what will happen next.

Will Netanyahu keep his word?

But apparently the 72-year-old Benjamin Netanyahu does not hold such pessimistic views. He has served twelve years as a prime minister and believes it is too early to mark him as a defeated politician. Netanyahu has vowed to return, and he stands a very good chance of doing so. Together with his Likud, Netanyahu can well win a relative majority in the next parliamentary elections. Right now, Likud has 29 of the 120 seats, and it can win as many as 34 in the next election. Well, this is not enough to form a government (the governing coalition must get at least 61 of the 120 mandates), but it is enough to start a struggle. For example, since Bennett's departure, Yamina has been led by the former interior minister Ayelet Shaked. It is possible that Shaked joins Netanyahu’s coalition.

Netanyahu himself called the collapse of the coalition ‘great news’ for Israel. The politician, who has been under investigation for corruption since 2020 (he calls the case trumped up), is more than confident of his chances. The November elections will be his last chance, which means the stakes are doubled.  Meanwhile, the incumbent Minister of Finance, Avigdor Lieberman, also intends to run for the premiership. He says that he has the most experience in running the state compared to the other candidates. The question is whether Israeli society is ready to see a former Soviet repatriate to lead the country.

Observers warn that amid the geopolitical turmoil around the world Israel needs a truly strong leader and political stability. Many experts believe that Israel should continue its policy of strengthening relations with its Arab neighbours. And for that, the Israeli government itself must be relatively predictable.

The West to help

It is believed that Israel needs predictability, strength, stability and the ability to make truly long-term plans, as well as enough reserves to implement them, and to continue confrontation with Iran. For Israel, much will now depend on the outcome of US President Joseph Biden's visit to the Middle East as part of his mini-tour of the Middle East. The media labelled the trip as a historic visit that will trigger new processes in the region. It is reported that the global crises, especially the situation in Ukraine and Syria, are forcing the White House to revise its policy towards the Middle East. Israel's main priority is to persuade Washington to toughen its policy towards Iran. There are also ongoing discussions on establishing a sort of Middle Eastern NATO. Such a proposal came from King Abdullah II of Jordan, who voiced it through CNBC. Accordingly, the fate of relations between Israel and Russia will also depend on the outcome of Biden's visit. There are rumours that Moscow has demanded the Jewish Agency stop its activities in the country. Observers saw this as an explicit signal to Lapid, since he has originally taken a much tougher stance on Moscow than Bennett. 

Thus, considering all the mosaic of internal and external factors, it is clear that this will be one of the most difficult and longest election campaigns in Israel. A poll conducted by Midgam Research and published by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Institute for Democracy showed that 52% of respondents believed in the ability of the right-wing bloc to form a stable new government. Still, only a third of Israelis believe that new elections will lead the country out of the political deadlock of recent years.