REFORMS NECESSARY NO MATTER WHAT

In recent weeks, a growing number of politicians and experts in various countries have been busy summarising the preliminary results of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which will turn one year old on February 24. For all the different assessments, the most common ones are: 1. Few people expected Russia to do this. 2. Few expected that Ukraine would be able to withstand and resist for so long.

Demonstrative summit

The EU-Ukraine summit in Kiev attended by all the key figures from the EU leadership has been another widely discussed event recently.

EU leaders have assured the Ukrainian leadership that Kiev could continue to count on Brussels' unconditional support and that Ukraine's future was undoubtedly in the EU. Nevertheless, they did not promise any concrete deadline for Ukraine to start substantive negotiations on this issue. Kiev once again insisted on its intention to start the negotiations on the EU accession as quickly as possible, while also strengthening sanctions against Russia and, more importantly, reinforcing the Ukrainian army with long-range missiles.

In response, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that the process will depend on how successful Ukraine will be in achieving the goals set as conditions for the country’s accession to the EU.

First and foremost, it is about the success of reforms implemented in Ukraine in recent weeks, including under the influence of serious evidence of large-scale misappropriation schemes from the state budget of the funds allocated for the provision of the Ukrainian army. In addition, a number of corruption scandals have unfolded in power structures. As a result of personnel reshuffles, influential Ukrainian officials from the prosecutor's office, the ministry of defence, as well as the central and regional executive authorities lost their posts.

The searches in the homes of businessman Igor Kolomoysky and former Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov caused a serious public outcry and were intended to show the true scale and seriousness of intentions of the Ukrainian authorities.

Ukrainian Minister of Defence Alexei Reznikov also found himself involved in the corruption scandal. Adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Mikhail Podolyak, commented on the rumours regarding Reznikov’s resignation. He said that he would resign only if President Zelensky insisted on his political responsibility for corruption in the Ministry of Defense.

Recently, the Ukrainian president signed a decree dismissing Ruslan Dzyuba from his post as Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian National Guard.

Remarkably, the whole campaign has taken place days before the Ukraine-EU summit, which, according to observers, allowed President Zelensky to kill two birds with one stone.

First, he could impress the EU leadership on the eve of the summit, and secondly, further strengthen his position, as the public community has long expressed dissatisfaction with the impunity of some odious individuals in the Ukrainian elite.

Amid the sceptical views on how realistic it will be to prosecute such a large number of suspects, Kiev has at least temporarily been able to defy the arguments of critics accusing the administration of inaction.

Anyway, President of the European Commission said at the Ukraine-EU summit: "Your determination to move forward is impressive. With your reforms, you have taken important steps to meet the conditions, and we must not forget that you are doing this while fighting the aggressor”.

But it is clear that conducting an effective and objective investigation requires a long period of time until the authorities gather evidence of illegal activities and document everything. It is impossible to achieve this overnight. This means that the process can take many months, if not years.

Ukraine's accession to the EU also risks dragging on for years. This is why many in Brussels consider Kiev's proposal to start accession talks in two years to be completely unrealistic.

Old questions in new realities

Amid the ongoing war, the other no less important questions are ‘how long will it last?’ and ‘what should be done to make it end sooner?’.

Despite increased Western support for Ukraine and the obvious recent success of the Ukrainian army, many believe that the war will take long. On the one hand, high costs incurred by Russia so far make it move forward only, hence the rumours of an impending offensive by Russian troops on the anniversary of the war.

Yet, Kiev has openly stated that it would not stop until it returned all the lost territories, which means that the possibilities of stopping the war are minimal. Especially since the sides are not particularly interested in negotiations either.

That the war will go on is bad news for all of Europe, especially for Central and Eastern Europe, which is and will remain the most militarily and economically vulnerable.

Apparently, the incurring costs affect all the sides of the conflict, including Russia, whose economic indicators have deteriorated many times over the year. But for Ukraine, which continues to feel the brunt of the war, with its economic potential, important industrial and infrastructure facilities, and its demographic indicators deteriorating, the situation looks much more critical on a daily basis.

This is why the Ukrainian authorities are willing to end the military campaign by reclaiming all their territories as soon as possible.

However, with this plan unfolding now, another, far more dangerous and destructive scenario can emerge. The NATO headquarters and member states are well aware of the possible consequences of this scenario.

It is clear that Russia can resort to the limited use of nuclear weapons if it feels uncomfortable with the outcome of hostilities. This can unleash a nuclear war, which the West does not want to happen.

Also alarming is the fact that back in June 2022, Ukraine's deputy head of military intelligence Vadim Skibitsky called the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict an "artillery war". NATO has an undeniable advantage in using the C4ISR system, which stands for Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance. However, its artillery potential may not be sufficient.

According to The Kyiv Post, in 2021 in Donbas, "Ukrainians were making 6,000-7,000 artillery rounds a day, while Russians — 40,000-50,000 rounds. Experts estimate that at the end of 2022, Russia was already making 20,000 artillery rounds a day, while Ukrainians 7,000 maximum. In comparison, the US industry—the most powerful in NATO—can only produce up to 15,000 large-caliber (155mm) shells a month.

In addition to increasing the production of NATO standard (155 mm) artillery shells, Western member states should help their central and eastern allies and invest in their old plants to resume full-scale production of 122 mm and 152 mm shells, which are used in former Soviet artillery systems.

This type of ammunition is currently produced in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, among others. Nevertheless, the scale of production is clearly insufficient. Furthermore, part of Ukroboronprom's production capacity could be relocated to Central and Eastern Europe with co-funding from NATO and the European Union.

The 122mm and 152mm artillery shells do not meet NATO standards, but hundreds of guns of this calibre are still in use in Ukraine. And it will take years to replace them with the Western systems.

A tour before the big battle

That is why Kiev needs a large number of missiles now. There is not much time left for a decisive strike. And the Ukrainian leadership insists on the transfer of long-range missiles as well as fighter jets.

By the way, the new US military aid package for Ukraine worth $2.2b will include missiles with a range of 150 km. This includes GLSDB (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb) homing missiles, which can be launched from M270 and HIMARS type rocket launchers.

However, the leadership of the Ukrainian army underlined that Western long-range weapons will not be aimed at Russia.

Ukrainian Minister of Defence Alexei Reznikov, taking into account Western concerns about NATO being drawn into direct conflict with Russia, said his country had no intention of attacking Russian territories with weapons provided to them by allies.

"If we had a chance to strike at a distance of 300km, the Russian army would not be able to provide defence and would be forced to lose the war. Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on Russian territory. We have enough targets on temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory, and we are ready to coordinate targets with our partners," Reznikov said.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president's unprecedented foreign policy activity before the anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war cannot be overlooked.

On February 8, Zelensky paid an unannounced visit to London. This is his second foreign trip since the outbreak of hostilities – Zelensky visited Washington, DC at the end of December last year, where he held talks with President Joe Biden and addressed the Congress, and visited Poland on his way back.

After London, he travelled to Paris to meet with President Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and, after a visit to the French capital, the Ukrainian leader travelled to Brussels to attend the EU summit.

Everywhere—in London, Paris and Brussels—Vladimir Zelensky asked for the same thing: “Give us more weapons, tanks, planes, artillery systems”. And everywhere he heard in response: "We will help you as much as you need”.

Apparently, behind the Ukrainian president's sudden tour of European capitals is an intention to get more weapons to repel a possible Russian offensive, which may have been unfolding when Zelensky was warmly welcomed in Europe.

Experts believe that as long as the Ukrainian army have not received all the promised weapons, Russia still has a significant chance of success in the forthcoming offensive. However, according to some reports, it has already started, albeit as probing Ukrainian positions for now.

Meanwhile, the leadership of the Ukrainian army has made significant statements that Russian troops would face many "surprises". Perhaps the Russian military is likely to find out these "surprises" in the next few days.