SEISMIC ANOMALY

The majority of Baku residents probably still remember the night of November 2000 when a seven-point earthquake literally "shattered" the autumn peaceful evening. Fortunately, we escaped without victims and significant destruction, except for large numbers of broken vases. Nevertheless, for a long time we experienced tension and fear at every little shock, either real or imaginary.

Azerbaijan is located in a seismically active zone and, naturally, we are concerned about whether we need to fear any devastating natural disasters in the foreseable future. How far has science gone in predicting earthquakes?

Innovations

Earthquakes, which cause tremendous destruction and claim thousands of lives are researched by numerous scientists the world over. Due to its geographical location, Azerbaijan is not dissociated from these global tendencies. Qurban Yetirmisli, the director general of the Republican Seismological Centre of the National Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with R+ that currently there are 31 telemetric stations in Azerbaijan (the installation of these stations are accompanied by certain difficulties, particularly on the sea bottom). In addition, the Institute of Geology has obtained new equipment which tracks the movement and direction of the motions under the earth.

In this connection, the information R+ obtained from the director of the Institute of Cybernetics, academic Taleman Aliyev, is of particular importance. He said that there are a lot of theories and assumptions in the world regarding the earthquake predictions but despite multi-million investments in the area, most of them have not proved practicable yet. At the same time, a group of scientists led by Aliyev himself, made a discovery based on the essentially new analysis of seismic noise. 

During the monitoring of accidents and defects of the equipment of oil producing wells, specialists usually detected noise which, as a rule, was eliminated because it was believed that it hampered the correct detection of signals. However, the new method, developed by the Azerbaijani scientists, envisages analysing this noise. Ignoring the noise means losing part of essential information for earthquake diagnostics. Aliyev said that the technology has already withstood a number of experiments which proved its complete reliability and efficiency: "During the period of the experiments, it detected all seismic anomalies some 10-20 hours before they occurred in the radius of several hundred kilometres from the station."

After experts receive information about the magnitude and force of an imminent earthquake, ten or twenty hours is certainly enough for taking measures and preparing for the disaster. However, Aliyev said that one station is not enough to precisely identify the magnitude and the epicentre of earthquakes. Therefore, in the future, it is planned to set up several other seismic stations.

Despite the fact that this technology is capable of predicting earthquakes 10-20 hours before they happen and is regarded as more efficient that the traditional ones, the latter have not lost their relevance. Competent monitoring of the current situation will make it possible to predict all seismic fluctuations with maximum precision.

At the same time, according to Tahir Mammadli, the head of the seismology department of the Republican Centre of Seismological Service, "the equipment at our disposal only registers the processes under way in the earth crust, the current seismic activity, that is, the ongoing processes. We then analyze this information, taking into account the degree of the aggravation and increase of seismic activity in certain zones." Mammadli says that this information helps form a certain picture of seismically active zones. In addition, at the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012, we created a map of earthquakes that happened in Azerbaijan from the years 427 to 2010. The map only features the earthquakes which are recorded in reliable historical sources - the overall number of 223 earthquakes of the magnitude of over five points on the Richter scale.

The majority of destructive earthquakes are registered in Samaxi. In 1667, an earthquake claimed the lives of 70,000 people. After the 1859 earthquake, a decision was taken to move the capital from Samaxi to Baku. As a result of these natural disasters, 100,000 people died in Azerbaijan. 

Given that Azerbaijan is located in a highly seismic zone, one can say that a large number of earthquakes take place here throughout the year but these remain unnoticed by ordinary people. According to Yetirmisli, only after high-sensitive equipment is installed to track even the slightest fluctuations, shall experts be able to register these cases. All earthquakes, even those within the range of 2-3 points, become immediately known to the media and the European Seismological Society.

What are we waiting for?

The ability to analyze seismic developments and even the possibility to predict earthquakes only allow us to prepare for them. They do not prevent the natural forces from inflicting damage.

Yetirmisli says that we cannot say that there will be no earthquakes in Azerbaijan. The most dangerous spots in Azerbaijan are in the Caspian Sea, as well as in Samaxi, Quba, Qusar, Sabran, Saki-Zaqatala and Balakan Districts.

Mammadli believes that Azerbaijan may experience 7,8 or 9-point earthquakes in the future. "It is true that no one can say when exactly this will happen: maybe tomorrow or maybe after 100 years," he said. Yetirmisli noted that while there is a risk of 6-7-point earthquakes taking place in Azerbaijan they do not really pose a major danger to the population.

At the same time, construction of high-rise buildings causes particular concern. It is unclear whether these will withstand seismic shocks. Mammadli however allays the fears, saying: "before a building is constructed, we analyze the ground, underground waters and the seismic activity on the spot. In addition, we have a special map of seismically active areas. Only after we obtain an appropriate risk assessment report do we start to build. This is also coordinated with the Emergencies Ministry to ensure that everything complies with the standards." He added that Azerbaijan's high-rise buildings can withstand even nine-point earthquakes. Well, let us hope for the better.