
THE COLONIZATION OF KARABAKH IS IMPOSSIBLE
An expert of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Konrad Zasztowt, replies to R+ questions
Author: Ceyhun NACAFOV BAKU
-In the near future, the talks between the EU and six former Soviet republics within the framework of the Eastern Partnership are expected to intensify. What is the effect of the "frozen conflicts" in the post-Soviet area on the process of European integration?
- For the time being, there is no question of these countries' accession to the EU in the talks. The talks concern an agreement that will affect the convergence of these countries with the EU. The existence of conflicts in the post-Soviet area should not be considered some insurmountable obstacle to the process of European integration. Although the Eastern Partnership is not a security programme, this programme will have a positive impact on regional security as a whole. The EU can be an important mediator in the settlement of these conflicts. As for the possibility of countries with "frozen conflicts" joining the EU, we can cite the example of the Republic of Cyprus, which joined the European Union despite the conflict with the Turkish Cypriots. In my view, the decision on the accession of Cyprus to the EU was hasty, since the process of the republic's accession to the Union was the best chance to convince the Greek side to make peace with the Turkish population of Cyprus. Now it will be very difficult to resolve this conflict. On the other hand, in agreement with Greece, Poland and other Eastern European countries were forced to support the accession of Nicosia to the EU to ensure that Greece gives these countries similar support in accession to the EU.
- The EU decision on sanctions against Israeli companies that operate in the occupied Arab territories takes effect today: the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights. Is such a decision applicable to the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova?
- The EU is trying to be neutral and impartial in any conflict to preserve the opportunity to be a mediator between the parties to the confrontation. There are various tools that can be used by the EU in conflict resolution. But it is difficult to say how these methods can be applied in the South Caucasus. Will these steps be effective?
The occupied Arab territories are of not economic but political interest to the EU. The sanctions, which were applied against Israeli companies operating in the occupied territories, are applicable to the occupied territories of Azerbaijan or Georgia. It is possible as a precedent. But one should not forget that there is a definite difference between the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the conflicts in the South Caucasus. We see Jewish settlements being built in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Although there are Russian military bases in South Ossetia, there are no Russian settlements or colonization of the territory there.
- But Armenia is trying to settle Syrian Armenians in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan ...
- If Nagornyy Karabakh is colonized, the situation will be subject to EU sanctions. But the economic situation in Nagornyy Karabakh is very bad, there's just nothing to do for new settlements. The colonization of these areas is impossible.
EU politicians and, in particular, the leaders of Poland have repeatedly said that they recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Georgia. But that does not mean that the Western countries will automatically interfere in the "frozen conflicts". From a political point of view, the EU's position is that all conflicts should be resolved through peaceful means.
- What will integration into the European Union give Azerbaijan?
- On the example of Poland, I can tell you that we gained from EU integration. First of all, Poland received funding for very important projects - from the construction of modern highways to the reconstruction of buildings and businesses. But most importantly, we received and introduced new standards of excellence in various fields of life. We were able to quickly get rid of the legacy of the communist past due to accession to the EU. The new standards dictate the transformation of important areas of the state - from legislative reform and the fight against corruption to the building of a modern army. This experience can be successfully applied in Azerbaijan and other countries of the South Caucasus. European standards are a system of sustainable development.
The EU includes countries with different political and economic views. To some extent, this complicates the decision-making process. Despite the fact that the EU was created as an economic union, the Union makes important policy decisions. In the future, this process will be more clear-cut. For example, the Eastern Partnership programme demonstrates how the EU sees the future of the six former Soviet republics. This did not happen in the past. There was no such reality in the ENP. Now, there is a clear idea of what the EU wants to see. If Brussels is not making statements on various issues, this does not mean that the EU has no position on these issues.
- In that case, why isn't the EU competing with the Russian Federation and the United States in the former Soviet Union? Why are there no EU initiatives, for example, to resolve conflicts?
- It's not as noticeable as we would like, but the presence of the EU in the post-Soviet Union is becoming increasingly tangible. For example, there is an EU observation mission in the region of the Georgian-Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts. This in itself is support for the peace process, because the presence of a mission affects the situation and prevents the escalation of tensions in the region.
The Eastern Partnership will influence the settlement of conflicts to a certain degree. The mere fact that the EU is interested in these countries means that the EU's cooperation and activity in this region will grow.
- By the way, Azerbaijan recently decided in favour of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline. How did Poland perceive it?
- Poland did not hope that Azerbaijani gas would get right into Poland. But the flow of Azerbaijani gas to the European market will serve to diversify gas supplies to Europe in any case. Poland supported the Nabucco project, and that's why we were disappointed by the fact that Azerbaijan chose TAP. Yet the export of Azerbaijani gas to European markets is a very positive development in terms of ensuring the energy security of the EU.
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