"ASK FOR A CAMEL TO GET A SHEEP"

The positions of the Caspian countries to define the legal status of the Caspian Sea have become closer - not on the core issues, but on a number of related questions. Although participants in the meeting of the working group held in Baku in September noted the progress in the negotiations, the complete delineation of the national sectors and the final status of the Caspian Sea are unlikely to end any time soon.

On how the process can go on and the main obstacles to agreement between the Caspian countries, we talked with the chief scientist at the Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Doctor of Political Sciences Sanat Kushkumbayev.

- Despite years of negotiations, the Caspian countries have not reached agreement on the status of the Caspian Sea. Possessing the smallest portion of the coastal zone, Iran is demanding 20 % of the Caspian Sea, which is more than it had under the Soviet-Iranian treaty. And the position of Turkmenistan is not clear at all. How can we lead Tehran and Ashgabat to a single opinion with the other littoral states?

- If the sea is divided into sectors, Iran will get the smallest portion of the sea. So Iran is acting in accordance with the Kazakh saying: "Ask for a camel to get a sheep." In the negotiations, each party is trying to achieve more. Iran is trying to up the ante. In the near future Iran's position will not change. The talks are progressing on ecology, fishing and other topics. But for us the most important thing is the question of the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Another important factor is that Iran is almost not developing hydrocarbon deposits in the Caspian Sea. All of Iran's oil and gas production is concentrated in the south - in the Persian Gulf. Therefore, Iran does not seem to be interested in solving the problem of the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are more concerned about it as these countries are developing energy resources in their respective sectors of the sea and tie their economic well-being to the Caspian Sea. It is very important that the parties still refuse military measures and participate in the negotiation process. Perhaps when Iran decides to start exploiting deposits in its sector of the Caspian Sea, Tehran's position will come to a common denominator first de facto and then de jure.

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia have practically agreed on the division of the seabed and concluded framework agreements. Unfortunately, Iran is staking claims to the maritime sectors of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan's position in principle is the same as the sectoral division of the sea by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia.

- However, the unresolved issue of the legal status creates prerequisites for the militarization of the Caspian Sea. For example, Iran has threatened to bring submarines and warships with medium-range missiles to the Caspian...

- The gradual or "creeping" militarization of the Caspian Sea has been going on for many years. All Caspian countries strive for the best, but prepare for the worst. Each country already has, to a greater or lesser extent, naval forces in the Caspian Sea. And the process of modernizing the navy is slowly going on. Everyone is talking about a hypothetical threat from terrorists, but it is possible that these forces will be used against regional neighbours. This is a completely undesirable scenario. To some extent, muscle-flexing is used as a means of pressure on the negotiating partners.

- Recently oil production started at Kazakhstan's Kashagan deposit. It seems that Kazakhstan, like Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, ignored Iran's demand that hydrocarbon deposits in the Caspian Sea must not be developed until the final resolution of the issue of the status?

- Yes. First oil production began at Kashagan. Kazakhstan produces oil in its sector of the sea, and Iran's claims have no basis. Our economic situation does not allow us to wait all the time until the issue of the Caspian is resolved. As I mentioned, in this regard, it is easy for Iran. Tehran can afford to conduct endless negotiations and try to preserve the legal status of the Caspian Sea. By the way, in Iran, there are politicians who understand the ambiguity of the situation. It would be irrational and unreasonable for Kazakhstan to put off the development of Kashagan to address the issue of dividing the Caspian Sea. Our economic situation requires the commissioning of new fields. For Kazakhstan, like for Azerbaijan, it was not easy to attract global investors to develop oil fields in the sea.

- Do you know where Kashagan oil will flow - China, Russia or Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan's oil transportation infrastructure, including tankers, is ready to pump nearly 20 million tons of oil a year.

- The participation of Chinese companies in the Kashagan project will not change the geopolitics of communication and transportation of Kazakh oil. The main shareholders of the Kashagan project are also shareholders of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. But Kazakhstan is trying to diversify export routes of oil. Therefore, Kazakhstan will use BTC, rail shipments through Azerbaijan, the Caspian oil pipeline through Russia and the oil pipeline to China. We plan to export in all possible directions.

- Can the start of oil production at Kashagan affect the negotiations on the legal status in any way?

- I do not think that Kashagan will have a major impact on the question of the legal status, because it's more of a political issue. But Kashagan will bring Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan even closer to each other. Though our countries are on the opposite sides of the Caspian Sea, as the saying goes, "they are in the same boat". We have common interests in the economy, oil transportation and other issues. It is natural that the strengthening of economic partnership will entail an even greater political rapprochement. The main markets of Kazakh oil are in the West. The path of Kashagan oil to Western markets lies via Azerbaijan. The export of crude oil through Azerbaijan is profitable and beneficial to Kazakhstan.