DISCORD

New integration processes have been initiated in the post-Soviet space lately which are as though shadowing the role of the CIS. Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan have established the Customs Union and Armenia is preparing to join it. These countries have also initiated the establishment of the Eurasian Union. Moreover, a number of CIS member states are also integrated in other structures such as the CSTO, GUAM and SCO.
Stanislav Cherniyavsky, director of the Centre for Post-Soviet Space Studies at the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, has shared his views with R+ on development prospects for the CIS, its member states' ways of integration and opportunities for settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. 

- After the break-up of the Soviet Union, some post-Soviet states met alongside economic difficulties with interethnic conflicts that have been going on up to this day. How active and fruitful is the functioning of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) created on the post-Soviet space? Is the CIS able to resolve post-Soviet states' problems?

- It appears to me that the CIS as a structure is now unable to solve post-Soviet states' problems. This can be seen from its low activity on key issues, at least those related to conflicts. A long time ago, if I am not mistaken, back in late 1993, Heydar Aliyevich (Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan in 1993-2003) suggested setting up a special group within the CIS to attend to conflict situations. He also suggested developing a package of measures the group could take. Specifically, they would foresee the emergence of conflicts, monitor them and restore destroyed areas after wars and conflicts. This suggestion was received rather coldly and failed to be implemented. The events that subsequently took place in Kyrgyzstan, showed that the CIS was unprepared to jointly tackle operational issues.

- Some experts and politicians blame the unsettled conflicts in the South Caucasus on Russia. They say specifically that the key to a solution to the Nagornyy-Karabakh conflict is in Russia's hands.

- It is wrong to think that the key to solving the Karabakh problem is in Russia's hands. The thing is that above all the Armenian and the Azerbaijani sides should both be interested in settling this matter. But there is the following difference in the situations. Baku's official position is built on the national interests of the state of Azerbaijan. The situation is much more complicated for the Armenians. The thing is that this country has from the very outset been under the influence of the large Armenian diaspora. This is why citizens of Armenia have to coordinate their decisions on key issues with the diaspora. But the Armenian lobby in France and the USA has a somewhat different vision of Armenia's current problems. Arriving for one or two weeks in Yerevan, diaspora representatives are delighted to see their homeland but they forget about the poor people living there now with no jobs and dragging out a rather miserable existence. That discord in the Armenian attitude, attempts to reach balance between the diaspora's strategy and that of the Armenian leadership proper is hampering efforts to hammer out a specific position. Moreover, as is known, both Sargsyan and Kocharyan are representatives of Karabakh Armenians and it is certain that as long as Sargsyan is in power, we can hardly expect serious progress towards a solution to this issue.

- How would you assess the results of Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest visit to Azerbaijan? What innovations did the visit add to the two states' relations?

- A visit may have unexpected results only in case the relations between the countries are bad. When V. Putin arrived in Baku for the first time in 2001, there really was a drastic turn for the better. Now our relations have stabilized so much that the only problems arising now are as a rule some differences between business entities related to oil supplies or transportation between some companies. But those are differences, let me repeat it again, between business entities rather than the states. Therefore I think this visit has further consolidated our friendly relations which are developing in a very worthy, well-balanced and good fashion. 

- Russia initiated establishing the Eurasian Union to provide unity of the post-Soviet space, what will that structure give to the CIS states? 

- Vladimir Putin suggested that as far back as in his campaign statements. Currently at issue are the tasks to settle customs differences between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and set up a single market. As can be seen from history, it is not all that easy. Very often different political elites and elites close to them use that in their interests. Yet nonetheless the process is going on. This process will certainly be crowned with success in the future. As regards some political alliance, I would rather refrain from speaking about that. I think it is premature.