SAD EXPERIENCE

The events in Egypt are back in the spotlight of the world media. On the streets of Cairo there is blood and gunshots. At least 50 people are victims of the new outbreak of the confrontation. The clashes broke out on 6 October when Egypt celebrated its national holiday - the Day of the Army and the 40th anniversary of the "Ramadan War", as it is called in Egypt, or the "Yom Kippur War", as those events are called in Israel.

Perhaps, there are not so many wars in the world, after which both countries considered themselves the winners. But with this war, which began on 6 October 1973 as Egypt and Syria invaded Israel, this is the case.

At the beginning of the war, the armies of the Arab countries did succeed. The Egyptians even managed to break Israeli defences - the famous Bar-Lev Line. But then the situation changed. The Israeli army launched a counteroffensive. At a time when the "major pieces" of the world of diplomacy tried to persuade the parties to the conflict to agree to a ceasefire, Israeli troops crossed the Suez Canal and advanced towards the walls of Cairo. Nonetheless, 6 October, the anniversary of the breaking of the Bar-Lev Line, is marked in Egypt as a victory day.

In the current situation, 6 October was also the date of the "test of strength" between the supporters of Egypt's new military leadership on the one hand and the overthrown "Muslim Brotherhood" on the other. The army, for obvious reasons, considers this day its own holiday. According to Euronews, supporters of the new government of Egypt gathered in Tahrir Square not only to see the military parade and air show, but also to express support for the army. Many of them held portraits of the country's Defence Minister General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who, according to observers, may be the next president of Egypt. In any case, signatures are already being collected in the country for the appropriate appeal addressed not to the voters, but to the general himself, who says he does not intend to contend for the presidency. In response, the Muslim Brotherhood organized demonstrations across the country under the slogan of "No to the coup!"

As is known, it was in 1981 at the parade in honour of 6 October that Egyptian Islamists, who had just gained strength, shot President Anwar Sadat - in retaliation for the signing of the peace accords with Israel. But they did not even pay attention to such a "trifle" that as a result, Egypt regained control of Sinai.

In Egypt, however, they prepared for the fact that on 6 October, the Muslim Brotherhood may aggravate the situation. The Egyptian security forces took all measures to ensure that supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood are not able to break into Tahrir. Earlier, the interior minister openly stated that the government will prevent any "attempts to disrupt the 6 October celebrations". And Prime Minister Hazem Al Beblawi, in a televised address to the nation, called on Egyptians to "unite and look to the future optimistically".

Moreover, political and judicial pressure on the "brothers" is also increasing. On 4 November, the first hearing on the case of the killing of Cairo protesters in December last year will be held in Cairo, in which one of the accused is the former president and leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammad Morsi. And on 23 September, an Egyptian court ruled to ban the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood and strip it of its status as a non-profit social organization, as well as its property. The ban also covers the activities of all funds and various structures established and controlled by the Islamist organization. Representatives of the movement called the verdict illegal and politicized, but have not appealed yet. Now the Egyptian authorities officially announced the dissolution of the Egyptian Islamist organization Muslim Brotherhood, which was stated at a press conference in Cairo by Social Solidarity Minister Ahmed al-Boraie. The board of judges of the Supreme Court of Egypt also recommended dissolving the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) - the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. The recommendation is directed to the country's Supreme Administrative Court, which will consider the dissolution of the Islamist party on 19 October.

Naturally, Egyptian Islamists are not going to give up without a fight, both literally and figuratively, and obviously give priority to the usual violent methods. However, there is no doubt that the time of their rule in Egypt has ended. And in the meantime, al-Sisi's chances of becoming president of Egypt continue to grow - the Land of the Pyramids seems to be favouring leaders from among the generals once again.

This circumstance makes us re-assess once again the results of the events that happened two years ago, which were enthusiastically called the "Arab Spring" and the "Jasmine Revolution". It must be remembered that in the days when the names of squares in the capital of Tunisia and in the main city of Egypt - Tahrir - became a common noun, most analysts and experts talked about the "democratic impulse of the masses" or the "Facebook revolution", and universities were ready to write theses on "The role of social networks in promoting democratic reforms". But they persistently ignored warnings that "Jasmine Revolutions", hyped out of all proportion, are first a social revolt rather than a "democratic impulse" and second, bring to the crest of the wave the forces to which it is weird to link hopes for greater democracy. These warnings contrasted too clearly with the romance of the "democratic impulse of the masses", and the response resembled a cliched phrase from an old movie: "What nasty sceptics are you all here?!"

But it was not too long before reports from "post-revolutionary" Tunisia and Egypt showed: as it often happens, the "nasty sceptics" were right. Power in both countries fell into the hands of the Islamists - in the best case, of the "moderates" who quickly encountered the same socio- economic problems as their predecessors. The popularity of the new leaders quickly declined, and people took to the streets already speaking out against them ...

The Islamists responded to the opposition just the way they were expected. In Cairo, they fired on the demonstrators. In Tunisia, they preferred "targeted terror" by killing the most prominent leaders of the secular opposition. And it somehow did not suggest thoughts about the hopes of the "Arab Spring" that came true. Rather, the dismal experience of the "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunisia and Egypt turned out eloquent proof that the "cavalry assaults" and the "impulse of the masses" are not effective instruments of democratization like well-thought out reforms, even if someone sees the reforms as too slow and not "colourful" enough.