POLITICS WITHOUT DIKTAT

The approaching Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius has drawn the attention of the main world players to the South Caucasus again. The agenda of the summit caused a clash between the interests of Russia, the traditional player in the region, and the European Union, which has been promoting its interests in the post-Soviet area more and more actively. The expert of the Belgian Institute for International and European Policy, Thijs ROMMENS, talks about it in an interview with R+.

- How may tense relations between the US and Russia reflect on the post-Soviet area and the South Caucasus in particular, taking into account that both states cooperate in establishing stability in the region?

- Despite official rhetoric on cooperation between the two and the need for cooperation within, for example, the Minsk Group, there doesn't seem to be much evidence of actual cooperation between the two in the region. The developments in Syria show how both parties have radical different opinions on what is happening and what should be done to settle the conflict. The US appears to have shifted its attention away from the South Caucasus, so this could open up room to manoeuvre for Russia. The recent successful Russian attempts to lure Armenia in the Customs Union may be seen as an example of this.

- What are your expectations from the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius given quite successful Russian attempts with regard to the future participants in the summit?

- It is difficult to make any predictions, especially about this region. Despite some negative trends and events, the EaP still manages to advance throughout the region. DCFTA's, visa facilitation and many more less visible programmes are being negotiated and implemented. I expect that these efforts will be highlighted and that countries such as Ukraine or Georgia will reaffirm their commitment to the EaP.

- Isn't there a need to change the EU's approaches or develop a new strategy on eastern neighbours given that Russia made it clear that it is not going to surrender this region to Brussels so easily?

- One of the main problems is the simple fact that the EU's DCFTA's and Russia's Customs Union are incompatible. A country is compelled to make a choice between the two and cannot continue to cover its bets between the two integration processes. The leaders of each country will make the cost-benefit analysis of which project is the most interesting for them. Russia's policy is much more assertive and combines good-looking carrots with deterring sticks. The EU does not have these at its disposal and has to rely on the attractiveness of its (economic) model compared to what Russia offers as a model.

- Unlike many other member states of Eastern Partnership, Azerbaijan has managed to pursue a balanced foreign policy between leading regional and extra-regional states…

- The multi-vector foreign policy of Azerbaijan is largely possible because of its energy resources. This makes it independent from energy suppliers like Russia that cannot dictate politics and policies through energy prices. This also provides Azerbaijan with the necessary financial means to conduct such a foreign policy. In the long-run, however, energy supplies are limited and one could ask the question what will happen afterwards? Azerbaijan should plan for a post-energy foreign policy before it is forced to do so once its energy supplies are exhausted.

- What should be done to make the Karabakh problem more known in the world and engage the EU in the settlement process more actively?

- A cynical answer is that the most effective way to make frozen conflicts known worldwide is violence. No one advises this, of course, and a successful peaceful settlement of the conflict would attract at least the same amount of interest and would be in everyone's benefit. However, outside actors will only be prepared to increase their engagement in conflict settlement in Karabakh if they see that regional actors are actively and seriously pursuing peace. In other words: if these regional actors would take the first steps towards peace, extra-regional actors such as the EU would probably be much more inclined to increase their efforts to support these first steps. The settlement of the Karabakh conflict does not depend on outside actors, but on actors within Armenia and Azerbaijan.