BRUSSELS' MANOEUVRES

The run-up to the signing of an Association and Free Trade Agreement between the European Union [EU] and Armenia within the framework of the "Eastern Partnership" programme appears to have met a sticky end. This was the consequence of the statement by Armenian President Serzh Sargasyan that his country was planning to join the Customs Union [of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and others] as well as being actively involved in setting up the Eurasian Union; true it was with an Armenian reservation that the latter would like to sign the Association Agreement with the EU as well. But Brussels made it quite clear that Armenia could not simultaneously be part of both the projects which mutually exclude one another. So, the EU has frustrated Armenia's customary tactics of 'keeping a foot in both camps".

But this does not mean that Brussels will not attempt to coax Armenia into its sphere of influence. The only issue is what form this coaxing will take?

Certain events over the last few months suggest that the EU is trying to achieve its ends by re-opening the discussion of the Zurich Protocols [between Armenia and Turkey]. Some Armenian analysts think that the failure to normalise relations between Armenia and Turkey may be to blame for Armenia exhibiting a preference for Moscow's projects. They believe that Yerevan's decision is largely the outcome of Brussels' failure to guarantee that Turkey would be compelled to ratify the Zurich Protocols and open the frontier with Armenia.  This is why the Armenian authorities' actions probably did not come as any surprise to the EU. It is noteworthy that, unlike the officials in Yerevan, the experts do not totally blame Ankara for the breakdown of this process. The first destructive step was moreover taken by Armenia's Constitutional Court back at the beginning of 2010. It may be recalled that the Zurich Protocols were recognised as complying with the country's Constitution, but with a significant proviso that an international commission should be set up to study the events of 1915 in the Ottoman empire, following which Ankara in its turn put forward new demands relating to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict.

 The link between Armenia's choice of the late and the failure of the Zurich Protocols was reflected in the speech made by Ovik Abramyan, the speaker of the New Armenian Parliament, at the 3rd Congress of  Armenians of Europe at the European Parliament in Budva, Montenegro, on 15 October: "After coming to terms with the bitter memories of history, Armenia has tried to establish normal relations with neighbouring Turkey without setting any preconditions. Armenia's leaders have taken this step, even though they have been subjected to scathing criticism, both at home and among Armenian ex-patriates. I had hoped that our European and American partners, who encouraged this policy, would be able to ensure that Turkey took an equally constructive stand. But this did not happen. Turkey did not change its anti-Armenian policy in the slightest. Armenia missed the opportunity to develop new direct links with Europe." In other words, O. Abramyan was expressing his dissatisfaction with Europe for not putting the appropriate pressure on Turkey to force it to give in to the Armenian aggressor. This statement may be perceived as pursuing two aims:

1)    to justify official Yerevan's position to the EU, and also to the Armenian diaspora and opposition, who are highly critical of the Armenian authorities' preference for the Customs Union;

2)    to initiate the West's pressure on Ankara regarding the unblocking of the Armenian-Turkish frontiers and thereby gain dual dividends, namely co-operation with both Russia and the EU.

Moreover, definite, albeit cautious, steps are being taken by Brussels. In particular, on 19 September a discussion on Armenian-Turkish ties took place at the European parliament with the participation of the Turkish journalist C. Aktar and the Armenian political scientist R. Kirakosyan on the possibility of re-opening the discussion of the protocols and what steps could be taken to improve relations. In his speech, C. Aktar noted that in Turkey the Azerbaijan factor is continuing to play an important role, and Azerbaijan's standpoint on this issue is quite clear: "Turkey should not improve its relations with Armenia until Nagornyy Karabakh has been liberated." The Turkish representative in the EU, S. Enel stated categorically in an interview with Radio Liberty that the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Turkey is directly linked with the progress made in settling the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict and, to be more exact, with the withdrawal of occupying forces from Azeri territories.

Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu said something similar during his official visit to Switzerland, where he noted that Ankara believes it is important to normalise relations between Turkey and Armenia, but Azerbaijan's occupied lands needed to be freed in order for this to happen. According to reports in Brussels, some countries really are currently trying to exert pressure on Turkey to restart the Zurich Protocols process, a policy involving the proverbial carrot. In particular, the EU recently agreed to open a new chapter in the on-going talks on Turkey joining the EU and to the next stage being held in Brussels on 5 November. It is highly unlikely that such a decision is a mere coincidence, since this process was suspended on the EU's initiative after the protests were reported in Turkey in July. But it would appear that the attempts to re-open discussions of the Zurich Protocols are doomed to failure, since official Yerevan in the persons of the Armenian president and the country's prosecutor-general are making serious territorial claims even on Turkey itself.

 So, the forces trying to re-open the discussion of the Zurich Protocols have to accept that their efforts will be in vain in view of the actual status quo. On the other hand, they are not in a position to ignore the reaction of Azerbaijan, the leading country in the Southern Caucasus in all its parameters, which back in October 2009, after immediately signing the Zurich Protocols, demonstrated the tough and just stance it was taking. Surely they don't think that anything has changed with the passage of time. If anything has changed, it is Azerbaijan's ever-growing might with every passing year, both as an economic powerhouse and a military and political power, all the more so, since a few months ago Azerbaijan's part in ensuring Europe's energy security was officially registered, when the TAP [Trans Adriatic Pipeline] project was chosen for gas exports to Europe and agreements on sales of Azerbaijan's gas were signed with European companies. After the building of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway has been completed, which is scheduled to start operating next year, Azerbaijan will become an extremely important transport hub linking Central Asia and Europe. So, is it worth trying to re-open discussions on the absolutely useless Zurich Protocols just for the sake of aggressive and isolated Armenia?