NEW OLD CHALLENGES

The presidential elections held in Azerbaijan, a country that occupies an important place in the changing geo-political environment of the Caucasus, of course, play a very significant role in the country's domestic and foreign policy. Their results confirmed the expectations of the Azerbaijani people, as well as the international community - two fundamental positions were chosen: "stability" and "development".

The people of the country elected the current President Ilham Aliyev, giving him 85 % of the vote. This figure proves that the Azerbaijani voters trust their leader and support his policies. However, we must not forget that this support imposes special obligations on the country's ruling elite. Circumstances such as new allied relations, priorities and the search for new friends will be of great value during the third presidential term. The country's leadership will continue its efforts to preserve stability in the country and strengthen its foreign policy interests on the regional and global scale.

The world community knows that Azerbaijan's foreign policy is balanced and multi-vector based on the principle of the balance of power that takes into account the interests of the country. While implementing these tasks, it is very important to keep a balance between existing policies, strategies and instruments.

In this regard, Azerbaijan will face a number of challenges in foreign policy.

"The Russian factor"... 

In the foreseeable future, Russia's offensive foreign policy in the near abroad will pose new challenges for Azerbaijan, and the country will have to pay more attention to the Russian factor and develop new approaches, respectively.

On the one hand, the new integration policy within the framework of the Customs Union and the promotion of its interests in the Caucasus region, and on the other, the Asian-Eurasian policy (SCO and BRICS) of Russia, which rejects the unipolar global system, and its tangled relationship with the United States, of course, necessitate changes in positions in the world order. The Customs Union, which is developing with the use of "rough" and "soft force", gives Russia a chance to strengthen its positions with the help of Belarus and Kazakhstan, and over time with the help of all post-Soviet states. In this situation, the membership of Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan in the Union becomes important for it.

Ukraine opens up access to the Black Sea, the Balkans and Eastern Europe, Uzbekistan - to Central and South Asia, and Azerbaijan - to the Caucasus, Iran and the Middle East. Russia is convinced that without the membership of these countries, the new integration projects such as the Customs Union cannot succeed. Therefore, the Kremlin will make every effort to engage these countries in cooperation.

Accordingly, Azerbaijan's remoteness from the Customs Union will disturb Russia, which may generate pressure on its part. Russia may resort to operational tactics, which it previously engaged for Azerbaijan's membership of the CIS, i.e. use Armenia.

Armenia's membership of the Customs Union... 

In July of this year, Armenia declared the end of the negotiations with the EU on the "Free Trade Agreement", which was to be signed at the Eastern Partnership summit in November. However, in early September, it suddenly announced its entry into the Customs Union and assistance in creating a Eurasian economic union.

Yerevan, which supported the Customs Union in 2011, dramatically changed its direction towards the EU, which indicated a new scenario in the region. Its transition back to the Russian side changes the distribution of power and balance - especially for Azerbaijan and for the West.

These recent developments in the region force the countries to make a choice. They will either become possessions of "new Russia" or defend their independence and, above all, develop and deepen their cooperation. In other words, the countries of the region will be with Russia or outside its zone of influence. The situation will not allow them to maintain neutrality. At the very least, Russia, which has a lot of methods of pressure, will not allow it to happen.

From Russia's point of view, any strife in the region means an internal or regional conflict. After the war in Nagornyy Karabakh and the 2008 events in Georgia, Russia counts on the loyalty of the regional countries. It is clear that the agreement on the Customs Union, signed with Armenia, complicates the Nagornyy Karabakh resolution.

Accordingly, the steps that Russia will take in its integration policy in the Caucasus, in relation to Georgia and Armenia, the problem of the Caspian Sea and the development of energy resources, as well as other regional issues should be taken into account when developing new approaches in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan.

Divergence of ways in foreign policy? 

It seems that a new process is taking shape that will strengthen the role of the "Armenian factor" in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan. In other words, depending on the position of Russia some events may develop, which will highlight the Western and "third ways" in the multi-vector foreign policy of Azerbaijan based on the balance of forces.

In this regard, the intensification of energy projects led by TANAP and the steps taken in this direction are considered to be Baku's response to this process. It seems that Baku will make better use of the energy card in regional and global policy. This means the expansion and deepening of bilateral as well as regional and international cooperation.

Prospects for the strengthening of relations in the vectors Azerbaijan - Turkey, Azerbaijan - Israel, Azerbaijan - West (US and EU), Azerbaijan - Turk PA (Azerbaijan - Turkic world) and Azerbaijan - Organization of Islamic Cooperation (Azerbaijan - Islamic world) are being determined. Here, of course, we cannot forget about Iran. Prospects for multilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Iran depend on the approach of Baku's southern neighbour.

The policy of increasing Russian influence in the CIS countries is a threat to the interests of the West, which is seeking to form a sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union and developing to a greater degree a policy based on energy security. Therefore, the region has some "red lines" outlined by the West in the last 22 years, and this fact should be taken into account. Another factor that needs to be addressed is the indispensable status of Azerbaijan for the West as a state possessing the greatest tradition of democracy in the region, as well as playing an important geopolitical role. Azerbaijan has a strong economy and a stable political system, which has state experience and potential, and is the most reliable and strong partner of the West in the South Caucasus. In the medium- and long-term, Azerbaijan may deepen relations with the West, depending on the nature of Russian policy and its potential impact on the interests and national security of the country. The position of the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia troika with the support of the West could weaken the Russia-Armenia axis. In this sense, Ilham Aliyev's intention to pay his first visit as the re-elected president to Turkey by tradition is very significant.

At the same time, within the framework of energy projects, it is important to accelerate the implementation of TANAP and TAP in the Azerbaijan-Turkey-EU context. In this regard, the achievements of SOCAR, which is increasingly coming to the fore as a constructive and powerful tool in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan, are impressive.

We should not forget that in the period ahead, the United States is going to continue to support regional cooperation aimed at limiting Russian and Iranian influence. The purpose of the United States is to prevent the growing influence of China, which is cooperating with Russia and Iran. This competition undoubtedly provides Azerbaijan with room to manoeuvre in foreign policy.

In addition, the growing role of France in matters of energy security policy, the problem of Nagornyy Karabakh and Armenia is of great importance, too. Baku is pursuing a pragmatic goal here and is moving forward with firm steps, relying on international support for its policy in relations with Armenia and in solving the problem of Nagornyy Karabakh.

In the West, especially in the EU, which puts energy security at the heart of foreign policy, a negative attitude is taking shape towards Armenia, which is rapidly moving towards alliance with Russia and will no longer be able to get support from the West.

In conclusion, it should be noted that we should not neglect the search for ways of multilateral cooperation and partnership in relations between Baku and Tel Aviv. Azerbaijan's foreign policy, supported by Israel, may open perspectives for the development of the situation in the region and strengthen the role of Azerbaijan in the "new great game". 

Thus, the process promises interesting events and the priority for Azerbaijan is to preserve its interests in the region.